With the Wild Card Weekend complete, we move to the postseason version of the 2015 TABRankings. For every extra game a team plays in the postseason, it better reflects the opinion of that team for our Four Postseason Factors. Therefore, we like to use an updated TABRankings to reflect that in our third factor (re: overall efficiency). We will continue to update the rankings as the postseason continues.
Note that with this being the postseason, we have to adjust the formula to properly reflect the change of tenor and pace. We also need to reward postseason teams for getting as far as they did. Thus, the formula for the 2015 Postseason TABRankings looks like so:
The TABRankings postseason formula:
(Regular Win Pct x 2)+(Postseason Advancement Points)+(Regular Pyth Pct)+(Post Pyth x 0.2)+(Overall Div Pct x 0.5)+(Overall Qual Pct x 0.5)+(Overall 3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(Regular TO Margin x 4)+(Post TO Margin x 5)-(Regular FK Diff x 0.8)-(Post FK Diff)+(Regular Sack Diff x 0.8)+(Post Sack Diff)+(Reg Time Ahead Avg x 1.25)+(Post Time Ahead x 0.1)+(Reg Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Post Time Ahead Big x 0.2)+(Weighted Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Regular Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
Only two parts of this formula stray from our normal process used in the regular season formula. First, the “postseason advancement points” attaches a point value to each team that advances to a certain level. Advancing to Wild Card Weekend earns 25 points. Advancing to the Divisional Round earns 50 points. Advancing to the Conference Championship earns 75 points. Advancing to Super Bowl XLIX earns 100 points. Winning the Super Bowl earns an additional 50 points. Second, the “weighted Real Quarterback Rating” involves putting twice the power into postseason passing numbers, so this will have some extra leg work to do to get the totals.
The 2015 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR from Wild Card Weekend. Check out the opponent adjustment formula below:
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1.0, a non-factor.
With now all that put together, the results from Wild Card Weekend are available below. Teams who remain in the postseason are highlighted in blue. Each postseason team will have the postseason record separate from regular season record.
The TABRankings top eight:
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True TABRankings — Wild Card Weekend
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Carolina Panthers | 15-1 + 0-0 | 620.77 (1st) | -57.46 (32nd) | 563.31 |
| 2 | 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11-5 + 1-0 | 544.39 (2nd) | -3.22 (19th) | 541.17 |
| 3 | 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 13-3 + 0-0 | 524.76 (3rd) | -12.74 (21st) | 512.02 |
| 4 | 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 + 1-0 | 455.51 (5th) | 18.77 (14th) | 474.28 |
| 5 | 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12-4 + 0-1 | 453.00 (6th) | 10.31 (15th) | 463.31 |
| 6 | 6 | New England Patriots | 12-4 + 0-0 | 496.24 (4th) | -37.52 (30th) | 458.72 |
| 7 | 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 + 1-0 | 409.02 (7th) | 24.76 (9th) | 433.78 |
| 8 | 10 | Green Bay Packers | 10-6 + 1-0 | 379.41 (8th) | 28.73 (7th) | 408.14 |
| 9 | 8 | Denver Broncos | 12-4 + 0-0 | 375.77 (9th) | 21.49 (12th) | 397.26 |
| 10 | 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 11-5 + 0-1 | 366.30 (10th) | 21.58 (11th) | 387.88 |
| 11 | 11 | Houston Texans | 9-7 + 0-1 | 297.89 (13th) | 4.36 (18th) | 302.25 |
| 12 | 14 | Washington Redskins | 9-7 + 0-1 | 319.56 (12th) | -26.74 (26th) | 292.82 |
| 13 | 12 | New York Jets | 10-6 | 347.08 (11th) | -56.43 (31st) | 290.65 |
| 14 | 13 | Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | 258.61 (14th) | 5.47 (17th) | 264.08 |
| 15 | 15 | St. Louis Rams | 7-9 | 218.84 (15th) | 31.11 (6th) | 249.95 |
| 16 | 16 | Oakland Raiders | 7-9 | 196.96 (17th) | 22.00 (10th) | 218.96 |
| 17 | 17 | Detroit Lions | 7-9 | 170.42 (20th) | 35.55 (4th) | 205.97 |
| 18 | 18 | New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 205.96 (16th) | -14.34 (22nd) | 191.62 |
| 19 | 19 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7-9 | 159.55 (22nd) | 5.87 (16th) | 165.42 |
| 20 | 20 | New York Giants | 6-10 | 177.64 (18th) | -15.22 (23rd) | 162.42 |
| 21 | 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-9 | 173.84 (19th) | -11.83 (20th) | 162.01 |
| 22 | 22 | Chicago Bears | 6-10 | 110.95 (24th) | 48.59 (1st) | 159.54 |
| 23 | 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 8-8 | 167.80 (21st) | -28.60 (28th) | 139.20 |
| 24 | 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-10 | 135.74 (23rd) | -28.40 (27th) | 107.34 |
| 25 | 25 | Baltimore Ravens | 5-11 | 86.86 (26th) | 20.15 (13th) | 107.01 |
| 26 | 26 | San Diego Chargers | 4-12 | 79.09 (27th) | 25.11 (8th) | 104.20 |
| 27 | 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | 24.53 (29th) | 48.54 (2nd) | 73.07 |
| 28 | 28 | Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 88.42 (25th) | -25.22 (25th) | 63.20 |
| 29 | 29 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-12 | 8.38 (30th) | 33.70 (5th) | 42.08 |
| 30 | 30 | Cleveland Browns | 3-13 | -13.12 (31st) | 44.27 (3rd) | 31.15 |
| 31 | 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 46.21 (28th) | -34.55 (29th) | 11.66 |
| 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 3-13 | -26.45 (32nd) | -24.35 (24th) | -50.80 |
Mean: 247.93 points; Standard Deviation: 171.59 points
There are now seven teams who are at least one standard deviation above the mean (more than 419.52 points). The Steelers join the list after defeating the only contender that lost on Wild Card Weekend. So does this mean that Pittsburgh should be considered a Super Bowl contender? Seeing that they are nearly 130 points behind the Panthers, we don’t know if they’ve done enough.
Here’s our pickle: Pittsburgh isn’t even 40 points better than the Denver Broncos, whom they face on Sunday. However, if we label the Steelers a “contender,” it would be fair that they earn the TABRankings postseason factor advantage over the Broncos. We’re more or less trying to justify an arbitrary cutoff point as reason for declaring an advantage. That would seem to cloud our analysis.
Heading into the Divisional Round, that looms over our heads. So does the battle in Foxborough, as the surging Chiefs travel to face the Patriots. The rankings really love Kansas City after its dominating 30-0 win in Houston. While both team in this match-up were considered Super Bowl contenders, there is a greater point disparity (82.45 points) at play than in the Steelers-Broncos game (36.52 points). At the least other two match-ups have bigger disparities (103.88 points for Packers-Cardinals and 89.03 points for Seahawks-Panthers). This is something for us to stew over heading into this weekend’s games. We’ll have decide soon if we give the advantage to the Chiefs and Steelers in their respective bid for an upset, so make sure to check out our Divisional Round predictions on Saturday and Sunday.