The 2015 NFL Postseason is set to begin this beginning, with Super Bowl 50 on the line. We need to figure out which teams have the best chance of advancing in the postseason, given the possible match-ups. Furthermore, we need to also pick the postseason games effectively so we can have a chance to win the 2015 Pick’em championship. After winning 18 of 22 postseason games from the previous two postseasons, we know at least one way to achieve this. Therefore, we will detail the Four Postseason Factors as it relates to the 12 current NFL playoff teams. We’ll conclude this analysis today with the final factor, which is “playoff team precedence.”
We previously explained “playoff team precedence” as such:
We’re looking for precedent-based qualities of a champion. Perhaps there’s a well-balanced and well-coached team that doesn’t fit the profile of other champions in previously unmentioned areas like quarterbacking experience or late-season play. We want to consider those qualities as well, because there might be some red flags in took down previous Super Bowl contenders.
We will use our Super Bowl Super Study as the means of this part of the study, looking at 13 precedent-based factors to determine which Super Bowl teams fit the bill of a “normal” contender. So let’s focus on the 12 playoff teams and see where each team stands in the respective areas. Also, we will compare the current playoff teams to past Super Bowl teams, based on point totals.
Table 1: Normality-Based Status for Playoff Team Precedence Factors
| Seed | Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC #1 | Carolina Panthers | – | – | – | – | R | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| AFC #2 | New England Patriots | – | – | R | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| NFC #2 | Arizona Cardinals | – | – | – | – | – | R* | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3* |
| AFC #3 | Cincinnati Bengals | – | – | – | – | – | R* | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3* |
| AFC #6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A | R | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | A | – | 5 |
| AFC #1 | Denver Broncos | – | – | – | – | – | – | A | – | – | A | A | R | – | 6 |
| AFC #5 | Kansas City Chiefs | – | – | R | R | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6 |
| NFC #6 | Seattle Seahawks | – | R | R | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6 |
| NFC #3 | Minnesota Vikings | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | A | R | R | 7 |
| NFC #5 | Green Bay Packers | – | R | R | A | – | – | – | – | – | – | A | – | R | 11 |
| AFC #4 | Houston Texans | A | – | R | – | – | – | – | A | A | – | R | A | R | 13 |
| NFC #4 | Washington Redskins | R | – | R | – | A | – | A | R | – | – | R | A | R | 18 |
1: Home-Away Split, 2: Divisional Success, 3: Season Starts and Finishes, 4: Maximum Losing Streaks, 5: Single-Season Improvements, 6: Starting Quarterback Experience, 7: Success v. Non-Quality Opponents, 8: Success v. Playoff Teams, 9: Blowout Losses, 10: Turnover Margin per Game, 11: Point Differential per Game, 12: Passer Rating Differential, 13: Yards per Play Differential
Perhaps this table shows you more than anything why we and others have criticized the NFL this year for its lack of true contenders. Each playoff team has at least one red flag, which more or less opens up the field. Four teams have no other problems besides their respective red flag, so they at least maintain their Super Bowl-caliber profile.
Now let’s go team by team to break down the odds. We will show each area of weakness, as well as the percentile rank based on the standard score from the Super Bowl Super Study data set. (Read more about calculating the standard score of a data set, if necessary.) Note that in normal distribution, 16th and 84th percentile ranks sit about one standard deviation away from the mean total. We would estimate that any team with a point total that rests below the 16th percentile is a true long shot to reach the Super Bowl. In 2015, four postseason teams rank in the 16th percentile or worse. Also, the mean of the data set is approximately 2.64 points in the Super Bowl Super Study. This provides a nice context for what the “average” Super Bowl team looks like in terms of precedence.
With everything considered, we categorize the postseason field into the following:
- The true Super Bowl contenders have four points or fewer in total. It’s possible for a contender to have one major flaw that leads to a red flag. A red flag alone might make a team slightly below average among these Super Bowl teams, but it still fits well within normality. The same applies if you add an amber flag in the mix. We can trust these teams as much as the rest of the contenders. (Note: More than 80 percent of Super Bowl teams fit this category, which establishes reasonable normality.)
- The fringe Super Bowl contenders have five, six or seven points in total. These teams neither fit the mold of the “average” Super Bowl in our super study or the typical abnormal Super Bowl participant. Hence these teams sit on the fence in this discussion.
- The unlikely Super Bowl contenders have eight points or more in total. We can accept this in large part because only six teams reached the Super Bowl with eight or more points in this study. Because four Super Bowl teams totaled seven point in the super study (15th percentile), we included them in the fringe category despite sitting below the 16th percentile. However, the teams with at least eight points overcame substantial setbacks and obstacles to get as far as they did.
To close, here’s our assessment on each of the 12 NFL playoff teams:
Carolina Panthers: three points (47th percentile)
Red: Single-Season Improvements (7.5-game improvement from 7-8-1 to 15-1)
New England Patriots: three points (47th percentile)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (2-4 to finish the season)
Arizona Cardinals: three points* (47th percentile)
Red*: Starting Quarterback Experience (Carson Palmer owns an 0-2 postseason record — threw only one pass in first start)
Cincinnati Bengals: three points* (47th percentile)
Red*: Starting Quarterback Experience (Andy Dalton owns an 0-4 postseason record — A.J. McCarron has no postseason record)
Pittsburgh Steelers: five points (29th percentile)
Red: Divisional Success (3-3 v. AFC North)
Amber: Home-Away Split (6-2 at home, 4-4 on the road)
Amber: Passer Rating Differential (plus-0.30 PRD)
Denver Broncos: six points (22nd percentile)
Red: Passer Rating Differential (negative-2.45 DPR)
Amber: Success v. Non-Quality Opponents (7-1 record with five one-possession wins)
Amber: Turnover Margin per Game (negative-0.25 average)
Amber: Point Differential per Game (plus-3.69 average)
Kansas City Chiefs: six points (22nd percentile)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (1-5 to start the season)
Red: Maximum Losing Streaks (five losses from Games 2-6)
Seattle Seahawks: six points (22nd percentile)
Red: Divisional Success (3-3 v. NFC West)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (2-4 to start the season)
Minnesota Vikings: seven points (15th percentile)
Red: Passer Rating Differential (negative-2.18 DPR)
Red: Yards per Play Differential (negative-0.15 YPPD)
Amber: Point Differential per Game (plus-3.94 average)
Green Bay Packers: 11 points (3rd percentile)
Red: Divisional Success (3-3 v. NFC North)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (4-6 to finish the season)
Red: Yards per Play Differential (negative-0.40 YPPD)
Amber: Maximum Losing Streaks (three losses from Games 7-9)
Amber: Point Differential per Game (plus-2.81 average)
Houston Texans: 13 points (1st percentile)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (2-5 to start the season)
Red: Point Differential per Game (plus-1.63 average)
Red: Yards per Play Differential (negative-0.10 YPPD)
Amber: Home-Away Split (5-3 at home, 4-4 on the road)
Amber: Success v. Playoff Teams (1-3 record)
Amber: Blowout Losses (L 48-21 at Atlanta, L 27-6 v. New England)
Amber: Passer Rating Differential (plus-2.44 PRD)
Washington Redskins: 18 points (1st percentile)
Red: Home-Away Split (6-2 at home, 3-5 on the road)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (5-7 to start the season)
Red: Success v. Playoff Teams (0-2 record)
Red: Point Differential per Game (plus-0.56 average)
Red: Yards per Play Differential (negative-0.43 YPPD)
Amber: Single-Season Improvements (five-game improvement from 4-12 to 9-7)
Amber: Success v. Non-Quality Opponents (8-3 record with four one-possession wins)
Amber: Passer Rating Differential (plus-5.94 PRD)