Momentum continues to build for TABMathletics in the Pick’em competition. Meanwhile, Week 14 presents us with two especially tough multi-point match-ups (Steelers at Bengals, Colts at Jaguars) that could determine our success for the week.
Meanwhile, our money theme [$$$] this week involves the AFC playoff picture. So far, two NFC teams clinched a playoff berth, and we expect now an AFC team to do so. Frankly, we don’t see the AFC failing to have a playoff berth clinched by Week 14 for two years in a row. That hasn’t happened in the conference in consecutive games at least dating back to 1994. All teams with an impact on clinching scenarios will be denoted with the money symbol. This will also dictate our approach to Week 14.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that our picks were submitted to NFL Pickwatch for this week’s games. A screencap is available below our picks.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(13) Minnesota Vikings (8-4) at (4) Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
We correctly predicted this Thursday Night Football match-up.
(9) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at (2) Cincinnati Bengals (10-2) [$$$]
The Bengals are one of three AFC teams who can clinch this week. Each of the three teams own a 10-2 record and lead their respective divisions by three game. This obviously means Cincinnati can win the AFC North by knocking off the Steelers at home. The problem for Cincinnati is that Marvin Lewis owns a 2-11 home record against the Steelers (including one postseason loss) as head coach. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is one of three 7-5 teams leading the Wild Card race. Something’s got to give. Either one of the 10-2 teams lose or one of the 7-5 teams lose. Given how this year’s general theme involves a few very good teams separating themselves from a bunch of above average and mediocre teams, we’ll take the Bengals to help keep that theme going.
(3) New England Patriots (10-2) at (12) Houston Texans (6-6) [$$$]
Like with the Bengals, simply a win tomorrow can clinch a postseason berth. This comes at a time in which the Patriots try to avoid their first three-game losing streak since the 2002 season (3-0 to 3-4 from Week 4 to Week 8). While New England’s offense trends down and Houston’s defense trends up, there’s a chance that the all-important Rob Gronkowski plays tomorrow night. He reportedly made the trip to Houston. Most experts are taking the Patriots despite Houston providing a tough match-up. We will follow suit.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(22) New Orleans Saints (4-8) at (16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
Virtually everybody’s taking the Buccaneers to move past .500, but we’re only proceeding with caution. It’s true that the Saints pass defense is one of the worst of all-time, but the Buccaneers are still young in key spots. We wouldn’t say they’ve mastered consistency just yet (28th in variance, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric). New Orleans just nearly knocked off the undefeated Panthers at home, putting up 38 points in the process. Drew Brees should be able exploit problems in the Tampa Bay secondary (24th in Passer Rating Differential). If the Saints had shown remotely better play on the road than previous games (1-5 record while being outscored 189-105), we would’ve taken them to pull off the upset. Instead, we’ll take the Buccaneers with tempered expectations.
(15) Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at (29) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) **Upset of the Week**
We were stuck on this match-up for a few reasons. First and foremost, this isn’t an easy match-up to find a favorite. Matt Hasselbeck finally suffered a loss last week, and that game didn’t look pretty for the Colts at all. As a result of that and previous bad losses, the Colts once again have a better record than their stats indicate. Meanwhile, a lot of Jacksonville’s apparent firepower seems like window dressing for an inefficient unit in our opinion. Jacksonville only ranks 22th in Offensive Passer Rating. Our second reason is that we hesitate to predict two divisions to have a sub-.500 division leader (the NFC East being the other), while our third reason is that we have few other good options for UotW. These two reasons conflict each other greatly in our minds. Ultimately, our gut is that the Jaguars are ready to bounce back after consecutive losses against 3-9 teams. Blake Bortles finds a way to help the Jaguars win the turnover battle and the game. In the process, it will put an end to Indianapolis’ 16-game winning streak against the AFC South.
(30) San Diego Chargers (3-9) at (5) Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) [$$$] **Lock of the Week**
A Kansas City loss would actually clinch a Cincinnati postseason berth, regardless of any outcome for the Bengals this week. However, we don’t think that matters much. The last meeting between these two teams was an uneventful 33-3 romp for the Chiefs in San Diego. That leads us to note this: the Chargers are 0-3 against AFC West while being outscored 87-35. This includes San Diego’s 23 unanswered fourth quarter points at home against Oakland to put a lot of window dressing on what was otherwise a blowout. The Chargers are actually being outscored 73-12 in the first three quarters of divisional games. Ouch.
(23) Atlanta Falcons (6-6) at (1) Carolina Panthers (12-0)
We’ll admit to getting carried away with this post’s excerpt. If you recall from our picks last week, we said we would “give up” on the Falcons if they lost in Tampa Bay. Well, they did. We’ll for Atlanta to finally win again before we pick them.
(18) Oakland Raiders (5-7) at (6) Denver Broncos (10-2) [$$$]
Denver simply needs to gain ground on Kansas City this week to clinch the AFC West. That means a win plus Chiefs tie (or a tie plus Chiefs loss) would suffice. Given that we fully expect the Chiefs to roll at home, the Broncos will need to settle for just earning a postseason berth. Denver would need to gain ground on either the Steelers or Jets to clinch a postseason berth. Given that we already see two AFC teams clinching a berth, we wouldn’t be surprised if this tricky match-up leads to an upset. However, Derek Carr fell apart in the fourth quarter last week at home against the Chiefs. A similar thing happened at home against Denver back in Week 5. This is part of season-long problem for Carr, who owns a 60.48 passer rating in the fourth quarter. Let’s not anoint him quarterback king of the Class of 2014 just yet. With this in mind, we’ll stay away from the upset. Denver edges out a victory.
The Rest (1 point each)
(10) Buffalo Bills (6-6) at (19) Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Last week’s win in New England suddenly turned around much of the narrative for the Eagles. However, let’s be real on that 35-28 win over the Patriots: 21 of those points were scored on returns. The Eagles also scored three return touchdowns in their first 11 games combined. We already explained this type of regression at hand when he discussed the Eagles in August. Take away those returns, and we’re talking about a team in free fall. Confidence and momentum can always be a great help, but it doesn’t always solve the efficiency problems at hand. Philly doesn’t match up well against a Bills team that features a revenge-driven LeSean McCoy.
(26) San Francisco 49ers (4-8) at (32) Cleveland Browns (2-10)
Surprisingly, this pick goes more against the grain than any other pick we made this week. While 63 percent of experts like the 49ers to win (per NFL Pickwatch), 22 of 24 other experts in our competition picked them to win. We just don’t see why. San Francisco may have a 2-2 record under Blaine Gabbert, but it’s a one-point win over the reeling Falcons and an overtime win over the below-average Bears. Also consider that the 49ers are playing their second consecutive road game with an early kickoff. This isn’t the 2011 49ers we’re discussing. San Francisco ranks 31st in Raw TABR for good reason, so we’d hold the phone on an easy win. Cleveland does rank 32nd, but there’s no notable dropoff with Johnny Manziel starting. With Josh McCown out due to injury, Manziel is the next-best option.
(24) Detroit Lions (4-8) at (20) St. Louis Rams (4-8)
We come to another game in which a 4-8 road team received a shockingly high consensus for victory. Only two experts (Keyshawn Johnson and FiveThirtyEight Elo) in our competition picked the Rams to win. So why won’t be the home team again? To be frank, we just can’t support the offensive style of a Jeff Fisher-led team. Case Keenum gets the start, and he was last seen being left in the game despite taking a hit that CLEARLY looked concussion-inducing late in a loss at Baltimore — caused by Keenum lost fumble. (P.S.: Why in the f–k did Roger Goodell brass levy no penalty for this?! This was immediately obvious.) He starts in place of Nick Foles, who’s been left to wallow in mire less than a full season after an offseason trade with the Eagles. We think it’s not Foles. We think it’s Fisher. He continues to overlook an offensive gameplan reminiscent of the mid-1990s. This puts too much pressure on a great defense.
(31) Tennessee Titans (3-9) at (11) New York Jets (7-5) [$$$]
A Jets loss automatically clinches postseason berth for the Bengals and Patriots tomorrow, but that won’t play a major role in this match-up. Tennessee’s offense showed promising life last week in Jacksonville. It’s actually Marcus Mariota’s fourth game leading the Titans to 30+points as a starter. However, the Titans have combined for 81 points in his six other starts (plus 13 points in the two starts for Zach Mettenberger). That’s far too flashy for our liking, especially against the Jets front seven that’s picking up steam to compensate for the team’s injury woes in the secondary. If not for the potential for a Tennessee offensive explosion, we’d consider this a lock.
(17) Washington Redskins (5-7) at (21) Chicago Bears (5-7)
Both teams suffered a disappointing defeat at home to a 3-8 team. It turns a battle for an over-.500 record into a battle for survival. The Bears are especially desperate, needing to make up three games (re: the Bears already lost to the 7-5 Seahawks) in four weeks. Meanwhile, Washington is an inept 0-5 on the road this season. We won’t waste much time on this match-up. Take the Bears.
(7) Seattle Seahawks (7-5) at (27) Baltimore Ravens (4-8)
If not for a second consecutive road game with an early kickoff, this would be our Lock of the Week. As it goes, the Seahawks may be able to lick their chops against Jimmy Clausen for the second time this season. (Matt Schaub may miss tomorrow’s game due to injury, although we want the pick-six machine to play to help Seattle’s DST for our Yahoo fantasy team.) Remember, Clausen started for the Bears in that aforementioned loss to the Seahawks. The Bears were shut out in Week 3 and mustered only seven first downs.
(25) Dallas Cowboys (4-8) at (8) Green Bay Packers (8-4)
This was another candidate for LotW, but the Packers’ inability to consistently attack downfield match-up well for the visiting underdogs. The Dallas defense quietly limited six of their seven opponents since the bye week under 20 offensive points. (The Giants scored 13 of 27 points on offense, while the Panthers scored 19 of 33 points on offense.) We expected this from Dallas, but it was supposed to happen with a healthy Tony Romo on the field for most of the 2015 season. May Cowboys fans like our own Adam Dobrowolski lament at the reality. Aaron Rodgers will outgun Matt Cassel enough to knock the Cowboys back to the brink of playoff elimination.
(14) New York Giants (5-7) at (28) Miami Dolphins (5-7)
We nearly picked this to be our upset special, but we figured one of the 5-7 NFC East teams needed to win. As the match-up goes, the Giants continue to struggle immensely with its pass defense, but the Dolphins are ill-equipped to take advantage of it. Note that Miami mustered all of eight first downs and seven offensive points during a 15-13 win against the lowly Ravens defense. Meanwhile, despite Eli Manning’s recent struggles, the New York offense still moves the football. The team was last held under 300 yards against the Cowboys. (Sigh, again.) By default, we expect the Giants to earn the NFC East once again.
