NFL Playoff Team Profile: Arizona Cardinals

Editor’s Note: Every Monday until the end of the regular season, we will profile each team that clinches a postseason berth. We will look at each team’s stats as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. However, with the Arizona Cardinals clinching a berth after last night’s win on Thursday Night Football, we will profile them today. We will show parts of the statistical profile today, but we will need to wait until Tuesday to show the league ranking (and remaining profile) for each stat. Those updates will be integrated below within this post. These rankings will illustrate each team’s strengths and weaknesses at the point in which the team(s) clinched a postseason berth.

Since the season opener, the Arizona Cardinals have looked like one of the most dynamic and dangerous offense in the league. Despite our calls for overall regression, the team somehow got significantly better after last year’s 11-5 campaign. Much of that has to do with the MVP-level play of quarterback Carson Palmer. Therefore, it is fitting that the Cardinals clinch a postseason berth with three weeks still left to play. Earning a first-bound bye could also be in the works for Arizona, but finishing strong in the context of our Four Postseason Factors will also be important to the team’s postseason hopes. Today, we examine what areas of Arizona’s game already fit the profile of a Super Bowl contender and what areas may need improvement. The examined stats relate to team balance, coaching quality, overall efficiency and playoff team precedence.

Team Balance: Defense Compliments Explosive Passing Offense
Just by watching the Cardinals this season, most football fans can see how the offense is good enough to win a Super Bowl. However, often times the most powerful offenses lose in the postseason because the team lacks balance. If the defense is left to struggle, it will cost those teams in the end. However, judging by the team’s third-ranked Defensive Passer Rating through Week 13, there’s hope that the defense can keep up if needed. Check out the stats below. These stats were first used during last year’s Four Postseason Factors (FPF) analysis. Remember, this analysis helped us to go 18-4 within the last two NFL postseasons in the Pick’em competition.

Table 1: Arizona Cardinals Statistical Profile (through Week 14)

OPR: Offensive Passer Rating, NY/D: Net Yards per Dropback, 1st%: First Down Percentage, Sack%: Sack Percentage,
DVOA: Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average (all rights to this stat belong to Football Outsiders), DPR: Defensive Passer Rating,
NYA/D: Net Yards Allowed per Dropback, NY/P: Net Yards per Point Scored, REL: Relative Scoring Average, 3rd%: Third Down Percentage Differential,
RZ%: Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Differential, ORR: Offensive Rusher Rating (first analyzed on Cold, Hard Football Facts),
YPA: Rush Yards per Attempt, OHI: Offensive Hog Index (created by CHFF), DRR: Defensive Rusher Rating (CHFF), DHI: Defensive Hog Index (CHFF),
vQO: W-L v. Quality Opponents, vPO: W-L v. Playoff Opponents, QRW: Quality Road Wins, PL3: Playoff W-L from 2012-14, DDWD: Double-Digit Win Differential

You can see how Arizona dominates in the passing game. However, the negative DVOA for the running game leaves room for concern. Especially come playoff time, Arizona’s deep passing will face heavy resistance, so a more effective running game will be more necessary to act as a complimentary asset. Not all hope is lost, so three final three games will be nothing more than a proving ground for a unit facing transition at running back due to injury. A strong finish will go a long way.

While the offense certainly looks dangerous when not awesome, but the defense does a great job as well. That will be crucial come playoff time. The same goes for the team’s scoring efficiency, which suggests the Cardinals could get even better. Arizona owns a negative Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Differential, so there’s at least one more small area in which the team needs to improve.

Table 2: Arizona Cardinals Statistical Rankings (through Week 14)

See Table 1 for the statistical legend.

The passing offense clearly stands out as Arizona’s greatest strength. The Cardinals own a better Pass Offense Mean Rank than the any of the 12 playoff teams last year, suggesting that this unit is at least as relatively dominant as any unit was in 2014. Beyond that, you have an average to playoff-caliber team that compliments that dominant passing game. The 2015 Cardinals (through Week 14) and 2014 Broncos (at the regular season’s conclusion) own the same Pass Defense Mean Rank, which should be a good sign for Arizona. Meanwhile, the 2015 Cardinals own a slightly better Run Defense Mean Rank, so again the comparison is favorable. Scoring wise, the Cardinals would’ve ranked third last year. As for the quality tests, Arizona would’ve ranked fourth. The run game might be the biggest problem, but note that the 2015 Cardinals rank between the 2014 Steelers and 2014 Panthers in Run Offense Mean Rank. All three units are capable, but they each had respective mid-season setbacks or struggles that limited their efficiency.

Coaching Quality: Arians Quietly One of the Best Options
Because the Cardinals are only the second team to clinch a postseason berth thus far, we can’t you a more definite answer on how Head Coach Bruce Arians fits into the contender discussion. At last check, during last year’s FPF analysis, Arians ranked well among the 12 postseason head coaches. He’s definitely proven his stock during his limited time as head coach. Arians is unofficially 42-16 as head coach, although his 9-3 while filling in for Chuck Pagano with the Colts isn’t counted in the NFL record book. That interim coaching work is important to understand, as Arians guided a statistically-weak but emotionally-driven Indianapolis team to the postseason as Pagano fought cancer. Let’s also note that Arians 23-5 in one-possession games, which could suggest lucks but also suggests great motivation in key spots from Arians. His biggest weakness will be his 0-1 playoff record, which could pale in comparison to other coaches.

Overall Efficiency: TABRankings See a Super Bowl Contender
As of the Week 13 TABRankings, the Cardinals ranked fourth. They will most likely hold on to a Top 4 spot come next week’s rankings.

Note that the Week 13 TABR involved 226.99 mean points with a standard deviation of 139.35 points. Arizona is one of the just six teams that were at least one standard deviation better than the mean. They suggest that the Cardinals are at the least a legitimate playoff threat, if not one of the true Super Bowl contenders. We recognized this on Monday when the profiled the Carolina Panthers.

Playoff Team Precedence: One Important Red Flag
Finally, we look at playoff team precedence. We first delved into this type of analysis when we tested key factors of precedence for Cold, Hard Football Facts. That eventually evolved into our Super Bowl Super Study. If you examine that study, you’ll see our 13 key factors for playoff team precedence. So far, the Cardinals show red in one key area.

1. The Home-Away Split: 5-1 at home, 6-1 on the road… guaranteed to be flag-free
2. Divisional Success: 4-1 v. the NFC West… guaranteed to be flag-free
3. Season Starts and Finishes: 6-2 in the first half, unknown second half… flag status pending finish
4. Maximum Losing Streaks: No losing streak (re: two non-consecutive losses)… projects to be flag-free
5. Single-Season Improvements: 11-5 last year, 11-2 this season… guaranteed to be flag-free
6. Starting Quarterback Experience: Carson Palmer owns 0-2 playoff record and 156 regular season starts
7. Success v. Non-Quality Opponents: 8-1 record with 2 one-possession wins… projects to be flag-free
8. Success v. Playoff Teams: 0-0 record… flag stats pending (re: only two other postseason berths clinched)
9. Blowout Losses: No blowout losses… projects to be flag-free
10. Turnover Margin per Game: plus-0.46 TO/gm… projects to be flag-free
11. Point Differential per Game: plus-11.77 points/gm… projects to be flag-free
12. Passer Rating Differential: plus-28.38 points… projects to be flag-free
13. Yards per Play Differential: plus-1.03 yards/play… projects to be flag-free

Here’s why Arizona needs to finish strong. The Cardinals cannot afford to take any more warning flags in terms of playoff precedence. We labeled any playoff team with three or fewer points as a “true Super Bowl contender” during last year’s FPF analysis. Arizona already received three points with the Palmer playoff issue. Only Eli Manning won a Super Bowl (XLII over the 16-0 Patriots) while starting 0-2 in previous postseasons. Palmer could become the second — but staying flag-free in the other areas of precedence will be the key.

FINAL ASSESSMENT: POSSIBLE CONTENDER IN ALL FOUR FACTORS
Outside of the issue surrounding Carson Palmer’s previous playoff experience, the Cardinals generally having the makings of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, it’s not just like Palmer is the only one to blame. Bruce Arians does have a playoff win either. Perhaps coincidentally, Mike Tomlin was the last coach to be 0-1 in the postseason heading into a Super Bowl run. Arians was Offensive Coordinator as the Steelers beat the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII.

In comparison to the NFC-leading Panthers, it seems like the Cardinals have a little bit more to do before the postseason.