Week 12 saw us get more aggressive than usual, as we predicted five games against the grain of the expert consensus. This included three games in which the favorite had at least a 75 percent consensus. We went 2-3 in these games, but more importantly, we correctly predicted two of the three games in the latter subset. Because of this, we have the possibility to either rising or falling in the ranks of the Pick’em competition. What was the case for us? Find out below, as we show this week’s results.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(9) Buffalo Bills (5-5) at (6) Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
(8) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at (11) Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
(1) New England Patriots (10-0) at (7) Denver Broncos (8-2)
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(24) Chicago Bears (4-6) at (5) Green Bay Packers (7-3)
(10) New York Giants (5-5) at (19) Washington Redskins (4-6)
(28) Miami Dolphins (4-6) at (14) New York Jets (5-5)
(4) Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at (29) San Francisco 49ers (3-7) **Lock of the Week**
(27) Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at (32) Cleveland Browns (2-8)
The Rest (1 point each)
(20) Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) at (26) Detroit Lions (3-7)
(2) Carolina Panthers (10-0) at (23) Dallas Cowboys (3-7) **Upset of the Week**
(21) Oakland Raiders (4-6) at (31) Tennessee Titans (2-8)
(16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at (15) Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
(22) New Orleans Saints (4-6) at (12) Houston Texans (5-5)
(13) Minnesota Vikings (7-3) at (18) Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
(17) St. Louis Rams (4-6) at (3) Cincinnati Bengals (8-2)
(30) San Diego Chargers (2-8) at (25) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 10-6 and 17 points (out of 27 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 109-67 and 178 points (61.93 win and 61.17 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-1 this week (19-14 overall… 57.57 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 3-2 this week (36-20 overall… 64.29 win percentage) [includes 5-5 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 5-7 overall (80 ranking points… 41.67 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 11-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Packers, Giants, Jets, Falcons, Rams, Bengals, Panthers, Chiefs, Cardinals… best streak: 10 weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 117-59 | 1 | FiveThirtyEight | 191 | |
| 2 | Don Banks, SI | 112-64 | 2 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 187 | |
| 2 | M. Irvin | 112-64 | 3 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 186 | |
| 4 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 111-65 | 4 | D. Banks | 184 | |
| 4 | C. Mortensen | 111-65 | 5 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 181 | |
| 6 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 110-66 | 6 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 180 | |
| 6 | T. Jackson | 110-66 | 6 | C. Carter | 180 | |
| 6 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 110-66 | 6 | R. Jaworski | 180 | |
| 9 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 109-67 | 9 | J. Bell | 179 | |
| 9 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 109-67 | 9 | Nate Davis, USAT | 179 | |
| 9 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 109-67 | 11 | A. Dobrowolski | 178 | |
| 9 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 109-67 | 11 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 178 | |
| 13 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 108-68 | 13 | M. Faulk | 177 | |
| M | Mean Record | 107.24-68.76 | 13 | M. Hoge | 177 | |
| 14 | N. Davis | 107-69 | 15 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 176 | |
| 15 | A. Caplan | 106-70 | 15 | V. Iyer | 176 | |
| 15 | M. Ditka | 106-70 | M | Mean Points | 175.24 | |
| 15 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 106-70 | 17 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 175 | |
| 15 | P. Prisco | 106-70 | 18 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 172 | |
| 19 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 105-71 | 18 | K. Joyner | 172 | |
| 20 | K. Johnson | 104-72 | 20 | K. Warner | 169 | |
| 20 | S. Wickersham | 104-72 | 21 | Football Outsiders | 167 | |
| 22 | FB Outsiders | 103-73 | 21 | M. Schlereth | 167 | |
| 23 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 102-74 | 23 | S. Mariucci | 166 | |
| 24 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 101-75 | 24 | M. Golic | 157 | |
| 25 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 94-82 | 25 | E. Allen | 147 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
The FiveThirtyEight Elo got some separation this week, gaining two games and three points of ground on its nearest competitor(s). They’ve seemed to take our role of the previous two years, as they also co-lead the NFL Pickwatch standings, which goes to show how valuable the next-level analysis can be. As for us, we’ve gained a fraction of a game on the mean record and gained a bit more on the mean point total. We even climbed up a few spots in the standings. All said, it was a positive week. We may not have the top in sight, but we’re close to the rest.
Moving on to Week 13, we are greeted by December with a huge slate of divisional games. There are nine divisional games in total slated for the week, meaning there are at least 25 points up for grabs (before even considering the Games of the Week). We also have four non-divisional games that could potentially having the makings for GotW status. With our standard bearer being the FiveThirtyEight Elo, we already have the chance to starting planning how we want to pick games this week relative to them. Check the picks out this Saturday night!