Last week treated us well, but we went 1-2 on Thursday when picking the Thanksgiving games. We’re going to get just a bit more aggressive then usual with the one-point games to try to get some ground back. The rest of our picks are going to smart and safe. The true fun begins next week, which we’ll certainly discuss in more detail within the next seven days.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that our picks were submitted to NFL Pickwatch for this week’s games. A screencap is available below our picks.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(9) Buffalo Bills (5-5) at (6) Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
The Bills definitely gave the Patriots a hard and strong fight on Monday night, but the reason why I’m not picking them to win in Kansas City was perfectly illustrated during last week’s loss. Buffalo’s offense just isn’t consistent enough to get ahead of and put away quality opponents. With the way the Chiefs are recently playing against the pass, inconsistency is enough to prevent Buffalo from winning.
(8) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at (11) Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
The Seahawks eventually will win a game against a quality opponent. They’ve failed to close out multi-possession fourth quarter leads against the undefeated Panthers and the top-tier Bengals. They also blew slim fourth quarter leads against fellow top five teams in the Packers and Cardinals. Seattle will get that fourth-quarter lead here and close it out.
(1) New England Patriots (10-0) at (7) Denver Broncos (8-2)
We said one of the unbeatens are likely to fall this week, but we (incorrectly) predicted the Cowboys to knock off the Panthers. This is another solid choice, though. However, we’re taking the Patriots despite their recent injuries in the receiving game because we just don’t know how much the Denver offense will expand during Brock Osweiler’s second start to keep up with New England offense.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(24) Chicago Bears (4-6) at (5) Green Bay Packers (7-3)
We incorrectly predicted this Thanksgiving match-up.
(10) New York Giants (5-5) at (19) Washington Redskins (4-6)
Leave it to the NFC East for a battle of mediocre teams to all stay in the hunt come December. Washington is a tough out at home, so they will make it very tough for the Giants. However, we’re going to keep it conservative here and take New York. They’ve made life a virtual nightmare for Kirk Cousins. With the league’s best turnover-forcing defense, the Giants earn a series sweep.
(28) Miami Dolphins (4-6) at (14) New York Jets (5-5)
The Jets will finally get out their three-game funk because they get to play a Miami team that frankly stinks against its divisional opponents. Save for a brief two-game burst after the bye under new head coach Dan Campbell, the Dolphins haven’t shown any signs of competing with a good team. New York has the advantage on both sides of the ball.
(4) Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at (29) San Francisco 49ers (3-7) **Lock of the Week**
Luckily, we still have the Cardinals available. Between the standout play of the Arizona offense and the immense struggles of the San Francisco defense, we think this one will be a certain victory for the Cardinals.
(27) Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at (32) Cleveland Browns (2-8)
This match-up will feature Matt Schaub against Josh McCown. That’s not going to make this Monday night battle exciting.
The Rest (1 point each)
(20) Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) at (26) Detroit Lions (3-7)
We correctly predicted this Thanksgiving match-up.
(2) Carolina Panthers (10-0) at (23) Dallas Cowboys (3-7) **Upset of the Week**
We incorrectly predicted this Thanksgiving match-up.
(21) Oakland Raiders (4-6) at (31) Tennessee Titans (2-8)
The Raiders are on the road across the country again, but the match-up favors them. Tennessee’s only standout area is in the pass rush, but Oakland protects the quarterback like one of the best in the league. Derek Carr will outgun Marcus Mariota.
(16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at (15) Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
Tampa Bay is red hot, but Matt Hasselbeck is quietly undefeated as the starting quarterback for the Colts. Experience will beat out youth here, as Hasselbeck is the safer bet than Jameis Winston.
(22) New Orleans Saints (4-6) at (12) Houston Texans (5-5)
This is definitely our biggest reach of the week. We think Houston is the better team, but we think that timing of Rob Ryan’s firing in New Orleans could allow for the Saints defense to play better. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Texans, so the surprising element could lead to victory. It’s a reach, but it’s one of the best spots to try it.
(13) Minnesota Vikings (7-3) at (18) Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
The Falcons eventually have to win a home game. Had this been a GotW, which it would’ve been a few weeks ago, we’d probably take Minnesota as the safer pick. However, we have some room to reach and predict that the Falcons end their home losing streak.
(17) St. Louis Rams (4-6) at (3) Cincinnati Bengals (8-2)
Cincinnati’s offense will be just too powerful for the Rams to keep up. Todd Gurley facing a solid run defense doesn’t help either.
(30) San Diego Chargers (2-8) at (25) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)
We’re not convinced that the Jaguars have this thing turned around. Sure, they’ve won two in a row and three of their last four, but those wins didn’t come in convincing or against strong opponents (re: the Bills started E.J. Manuel). San Diego has a ton of injuries, but we still think the team is better than 30th in the league. We’ll reach and say the Chargers finally get a winning break.
