NFL 2015 TABRankings: Week 11

With all 32 NFL teams having completed their respective bye dates, we hit the home stretch in the regular season. There are now six weeks left in the season, so the TABRankings should give us a good idea as to which teams are suited to make a run at the postseason. For some teams, earning a postseason berth is nothing but a mere formality (see: Patriots, Panthers, Bengals, Cardinals and Broncos). For the rest, their record may not tell the whole picture as to what’s ahead for Thanksgiving weekend and December.

Let’s start in the AFC. Three teams already reached the eight-win mark, giving them more than enough room to navigate past the regular season. That leaves three more spots up for grabs, which will likely include the AFC South champion and two wild card teams. TABR sees the Chiefs and Steelers as the favorites for the wild card spots and the Texans as the AFC South favorite. However, the Bills closely trail the wild card picture as the Colts only lag a bit behind in the AFC South. The Jets also rank in the top half of the league and figure to make some December noise. TABR doesn’t seem to express the same confidence for 4-6 teams like the Raiders, Jaguars and Dolphins.

In the NFC, the Panthers and Cardinals are the only clear playoff prospects. The Packers and Vikings can probably soon get there, but the rankings certainly like the former more. This week, the Vikings still rank sixth among NFC teams. Meanwhile, the NFC East is still up for grabs, but TABR likes the Giants to grab the division championship. That could be cast into doubt if the ‘Skins win at home against the G-Men this Sunday. As for the final wild card spot, the rankings like the Seahawks the most. They currently trail the Falcons by one game, but our rankings have them among the bottom half of the league. The Buccaneers may be the bigger threat to the ‘Hawks.

For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.

Here’s our formula:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for Week 11.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.7.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 11 are available below. Make sure to check back each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 11