Since we hit rock bottom three weeks ago during the NFL Pick’em competition, our gameplan for comeback was to be patient and persistent. We would only make a few smart picks against the grain and allow our analysis in the toss-up games (re: 66-33 or closer to even in expert consensus) to help us make moves up the Pick’em ladder. That strategy paid off this week.
It seemed like an awful long three weeks, but truth is that after our “early” picks paid off handsomely due to a brilliant two-pronged thematic analysis, we’ve quickly gotten back within legitimate striking range of the top tier of the competition. We sit only two games back of the top four, as well as only four games back of the top two. Although it was hard not to panic, keeping trust in our methods of analysis paid off sooner than expected. Of course, there’s still work left to do, but let’s break down the results for now.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(8) Green Bay Packers (6-3) at (12) Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
(3) Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at (5) Arizona Cardinals (7-2)
(9) Buffalo Bills (5-4) at (1) New England Patriots (9-0)
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(32) Tennessee Titans (2-7) at (26) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)
(4) Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at (30) San Diego Chargers (2-7) **Lock of the Week**
(27) San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at (14) Seattle Seahawks (4-5)
The Rest (1 point each)
(18) Oakland Raiders (4-5) at (28) Detroit Lions (2-7)
(20) Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at (15) Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
(11) New York Jets (5-4) at (19) Houston Texans (4-5)
(22) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at (13) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)
(6) Denver Broncos (7-2) at (24) Chicago Bears (4-5)
(17) St. Louis Rams (4-5) at (29) Baltimore Ravens (2-7) **Upset of the Week**
(23) Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at (25) Miami Dolphins (4-5)
(16) Washington Redskins (4-5) at (2) Carolina Panthers (9-0)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 12-2 and 21 points (out of 23 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 99-61 and 161 points (61.88 win and 60.98 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 3-0 this week (17-13 overall… 56.67 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 5-0 this week (33-18 overall… 64.71 win percentage) [includes 5-5 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 5-6 overall (80 ranking points… 45.45 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 10-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Packers, Giants, Jets, Falcons, Rams, Bengals, Panthers, Chiefs…
best streak: nine weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 106-54 | 1 | FiveThirtyEight | 173 | |
| 2 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 103-57 | 2 | M. Irvin | 172 | |
| 3 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 102-58 | 3 | C. Mortensen | 169 | |
| 4 | Don Banks, SI | 101-59 | 4 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 166 | |
| 4 | T. Jackson | 101-59 | 5 | D. Banks | 165 | |
| 4 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 101-59 | 6 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 164 | |
| 7 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 100-60 | 6 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 164 | |
| 7 | C. Carter | 100-60 | 6 | V. Iyer | 164 | |
| 7 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 100-60 | 9 | J. Bell | 163 | |
| 10 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 99-61 | 9 | Nate Davis, USAT | 163 | |
| 10 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 99-61 | 9 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 163 | |
| 12 | M. Ditka | 98-62 | 12 | M. Hoge | 162 | |
| 12 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 98-62 | 12 | R. Jaworski | 162 | |
| 12 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 98-62 | 14 | A. Dobrowolski | 161 | |
| 12 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 98-62 | 14 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 161 | |
| M | Mean Record | 97.68-62.32 | 16 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 160 | |
| 16 | N. Davis | 97-63 | 16 | M. Faulk | 160 | |
| 16 | P. Prisco | 97-63 | 16 | K. Joyner | 160 | |
| 16 | S. Wickersham | 97-63 | M | Mean Points | 159.6 | |
| 19 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 96-64 | 19 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 156 | |
| 20 | A. Caplan | 95-65 | 20 | K. Warner | 155 | |
| 21 | Football Outsiders | 94-66 | 21 | FB Outsiders | 152 | |
| 21 | K. Johnson | 94-66 | 21 | M. Schlereth | 152 | |
| 23 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 93-67 | 23 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 146 | |
| 24 | S. Mariucci | 90-70 | 24 | M. Golic | 145 | |
| 25 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 85-75 | 25 | E. Allen | 132 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Outside of the FiveThirtyEight Elo predictions, we are well within range reaching or surpassing all competitors this week if the expert consensus isn’t strong. It’s amazing to think that within three weeks, we went from 4.4 games below the mean to 1.32 above the mean. This slow but steady can continue as long as we kept the momentum going in Week 12. We will have our three Thanksgiving picks released Thursday morning, while the rest will be published Saturday night. Will there be a theme we can exploit?