We are publishing our predictions much earlier than usual, due to a weekend trip writer Adam Dobrowolski is taking. It will be a nice Friendsgiving getaway to the Poconos, and honestly with all the craziness that’s happening in the world (frankly, well beyond the not-so-serious scope of the admittedly crazy NFL season), the access to the Internet will be willingly limited to Instagram photos.
Have no worries, though, because we feel confident in our Week 11 picks. That’s because we’re going to focus on two themes: (1) the 11-team batch owning a 4-5 record, and (2) the quintet of teams starting their back-up quarterback due to injury or poor play. This will determine our picks for a majority of the games, with 10 of the 11 non-primetime games affected by these themes. The other four games will simply be predicted by who is even as the (early) expert consensus favorite. In the case of no clear favorite, we’ll just go with our gut.
As for the theme-based games, we will determine our picks by two sets of mind. First, when involving the 4-5 teams, we want to continue with the sentiment expressed during the conclusion of Monday’s recap. We think the three “quality” 4-5 teams and at least one AFC South team will contend for playoff spots, so those will make our winners for the week. (Don’t worry, the three teams all are favorites via consensus and the Week 10 TABRankings.) We will then pick the rest to lose. Second, when involving the back-up quarterback situation, we will consider teams with no potential significant drop off in production to win. Of course, if the teams is already slotted to lose based on our first theme, a break-even change under center matters not. We’re picking that team to lose regardless.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that we’re only looking at 2015 data from now on to make our picks. Our 2015 NFL Season Predictions made back in August no longer have any say in these picks. Check out our picks below. Because we’re making our picks so early, we have not submitted them to NFL Pickwatch just yet. Honestly, the weekend’s flexibility will determine our final say for the Week 11 games.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(8) Green Bay Packers (6-3) at (12) Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
This match-up is the only non-primetime game to have neither theme in play, but go to look at the expert consensus. Guess what? There is no strong consensus! It’s a near 50-50 split between the two teams, meaning we’ll have to do the full analysis for this one. Green Bay is on a bad-looking losing streak, while Minnesota just keeps winning. However, the Packers didn’t lose to a bad team until losing the Lions. They didn’t lose at home either until the Lions. Meanwhile, Vikings still don’t have a long-lasting impressive win under their belts. Yes, they beat the Chiefs, but the latter team was ranked 24th in TABR at the time of the game. The other six wins came against teams with an average 24th TABR slot. With all that said, Green Bay is still the more explosive team despite its struggles, and we just don’t see the Packers losing their fourth game in a row. Also, Minnesota is due for a loss to keep this team hungry for improvement.
(3) Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at (5) Arizona Cardinals (7-2)
Neither theme comes into play during for this primetime Game of the Week, so we will defer to the expert consensus. Surprisingly, a very healthy majority of experts are picking the Cardinals. We think it has to do last week’s outcomes (Cincinnati loses at home to Houston, while Arizona wins at Seattle). We also think it has to do with home-field advantage (re: the Cardinals are pretty awesome at home under Bruce Arians, going 18-4 with all four losses against NFC West foes). We’ll go with the consensus.
(9) Buffalo Bills (5-4) at (1) New England Patriots (9-0)
Once again, it’s a primetime GotW with no thematic role at play, so we defer to the expert consensus. This match-up also sees heavy favor for the home team. Rex Ryan generally leads his teams to play the Patriots tough, so maybe the Bills can cover the spread. However, we will go with the consensus, especially with the Bills playing a bit underwhelming on defense.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(32) Tennessee Titans (2-7) at (26) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)
Affected by neither theme, this Thursday Night Football game will come down to the expert consensus. Despite some slight advantages in the passing game for Tennessee, the Jaguars a surprisingly strong early favorite at about 80 percent in the NFL Pickwatch expert consensus. After winning in upset fashion by picking the road team in the last week’s TNF game, we best not throw our momentum right back to the field. We expect the Titans to make it close and possibly even sneak out the win, but we’ll go with the consensus for now.
(4) Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at (30) San Diego Chargers (2-7) **Lock of the Week**
The Chargers are indeed coming off the bye week, but there’s really no other good choice for a lock (among the teams we haven’t chosen). Kansas City pretty much broke all sense made from TABR, so the least they can do is win this game.
(27) San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at (14) Seattle Seahawks (4-5)
Seattle is one of the 4-5 teams that should at least have a winning record. Four of the team’s five losses feature blown fourth-quarter leads against Top 8 teams with a 6-3 record or better. The Seahawks will bounce back at home against the lowly 49ers.
The Rest (1 point each)
(18) Oakland Raiders (4-5) at (28) Detroit Lions (2-7)
The last two losses certainly sent the Raiders back to Earth. They are not a quality 4-5 team in our eyes, explained by their below-average TABR. It certainly doesn’t help that the Raiders travel a few time zones for a road game with an early kickoff.
(20) Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at (15) Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
This is one of three match-ups we actually need to exercise our full breadth of analysis. After all, we need to predict at least one of the two AFC South teams to win. Will be the Colts, the Texans or both? Here then comes the second theme into play. Indianapolis will have to start Matt Hasselbeck due to injury. So far from what we’ve seen, the Colts take no step back with Hasselbeck. His 2-0 record this season is evidence of that. The team might actually be somewhat better with Hasselbeck, considering all the turnover issues with Andrew Luck under center. Meanwhile, Indianapolis head into Atlanta, a team coming fresh off the bye after losing back-to-back games against the Buccaneers (at home) and 49ers. Maybe the bye helps, but Atlanta actually ranks worse than our three “quality” 4-5 teams.
(11) New York Jets (5-4) at (19) Houston Texans (4-5)
This goes hand and hand with the Colts-Falcons match-up in terms of the analysis needed to make a pick. We need at least one 4-5 AFC South team to win, so how do the Texans compare to the Colts in terms of likelihood to win. One favor for the Texans is that they are at home, while the Colts are on the road. However, the disadvantage for the Texans is that their back-up quarterback situation isn’t as good as Indy’s. It looks like T.J. Yates will start in place of the injured Brian Hoyer. While Yates did actually earn the comeback during Houston’s upset over the Bengals, we haven’t seen him shine in a full game. Then there’s also the sheer comparison between Hasselbeck and Yates. Note that the Jets have four more days of rest, but the Texans have momentum on their side. In the battle between rest and momentum, we’ll take the team with a more proven quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick beats out T.J. Yates.
(22) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at (13) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)
The third-worst 4-5 team (per TABR) travels to face the second-best 4-5 team. Holding true to our first theme, we’ll take the Eagles.
(6) Denver Broncos (7-2) at (24) Chicago Bears (4-5)
Denver carries the second theme into Chicago, where the first theme is also at hand. The Broncos honestly can’t get much worse in the passing game, so the switch from Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler might actually stabilize this team. Meanwhile, the Bears have the second-worst TABR of the 4-5 teams. We trust the Broncos D to force some mistakes out of Jay Cutler to get the win.
(17) St. Louis Rams (4-5) at (29) Baltimore Ravens (2-7) **Upset of the Week**
The Rams willingly decided to switch from Nick Foles to Case Keenum as the starting quarterback. We’ve lost all hope in Jeff Fisher understanding how to run a modern offense in 2015. Sure, the Rams crashed back to Earth after last week’s embarrassment at home to the Bears, but this change at quarterback makes a questionable offense even worse. Let’s face it now: it’s the head coach. Sure, Fisher got a team to the Super Bowl, but that was in 1999 with Steve McNair at quarterback. With a 2-7 record in one-possession games, the Ravens are due to win a close one. Knowing the outdated style of play from St. Louis, this game will be close.
(23) Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at (25) Miami Dolphins (4-5)
The Dolphins are the worst-ranked 4-5 team in TABR, while the Cowboys get back Tony Romo as the starting quarterback. Oh, and did you see that the Cowboys actually own the better TABR? Of course you did. Dallas finally breaks through back to the winning side.
(16) Washington Redskins (4-5) at (2) Carolina Panthers (9-0)
The Panthers finally won by more than 11 points last week. That’s the perfect time for the undefeated Panthers to host a strictly average Washington team. Continuing with our first theme, we’ll take the home team.
Bye dates: (7) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4), (10) New York Giants (5-5), (21) New Orleans Saints (4-6), (31) Cleveland Browns (2-8)