We are down to the penultimate week with teams on bye, so our chances of gaining some ground before the stretch run are waning. There are certainly some interesting match-ups to pick here, but we don’t have the full confidence to make that many picks against the grain. Luckily, we already have one huge pick in our favor: the Bills over the Jets.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that we’re only looking at 2015 data from now on to make our picks. Our 2015 NFL Season Predictions made back in August no longer have any say in these picks. Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(16) Buffalo Bills (4-4) at (7) New York Jets (5-3)
We correctly predicted this Thursday Night Football match-up, something only five of the 24 other experts in our competition did.
(10) Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at (12) Oakland Raiders (4-4)
The Vikings are playing consistent football on offense, but it’s been underwhelming football against poor teams. Then, when Minnesota played a quality opponent, the team drew the offensively-challenged Rams are home. The good is that since the Week 1 debacle, Minnesota won all the games it should. Now comes the tough part. We do truly believe the Vikings are better the Raiders, but this one comes down to offensive volume. The Vikings still own a minus-4.45 Relative Scoring Offense, which means they’re probably going to hang around the low-20’s in points scored. Can they limit the Raiders enough with their plus-3.86 Relative Scoring Offense? That’s not the type of question we like to ask when the Raiders get to host a team traveling multiple time zones and roughly 1575 miles. We find it incredible to imagine that the Raiders could earn a second GotW victory in three weeks, but props must go to Derek Carr and crew. Much past our expectations, he’s actually playing better than Teddy Bridgewater, who we truly like as an NFL quarterbacking prospect.
(6) Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at (14) Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
The Cardinals are playing very well on offense and are well-rested to boot, but this all about the respect for the Seahawks in prime time. Seattle is 15-2 under Pete Carroll in regular season prime-time games, with the two losses at San Francisco in 2012 (Week 7 TNF with a 13-6 outcome) and at Green Bay this year (Week 2 SNF with a 27-17 outcome). The Seahawks are even better suited at home, going undefeated in the subset. We’ll stick with the precedent, as the match-ups don’t even favor the Cardinals that much.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(32) Detroit Lions (1-7) at (5) Green Bay Packers (6-2)
Detroit can only hope that the bye week gave time for the team to settle and thrive on its mid-season changes. The way we see it, though, is that Detroit’s defense isn’t good to slow down Aaron Rodgers, while Matt Stafford still hasn’t won a road game against a team that finished with a winning record. Green Bay seems to be a lock, although we can’t use them (because they were used in Week 4).
(28) Cleveland Browns (2-7) at (9) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
We don’t know who will get the start at quarterback for the Browns. Mum’s clearly the word for Cleveland. If Josh McCown gets the start, we see an outside chance that the Browns upset the Roethlisberger-less Steelers, but we don’t need to roll the dice after taking the Bills against the grain on Thursday night. Since there’s a chance for Manziel to start, we won’t risk losing our advantage.
(17) Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at (4) Denver Broncos (7-1)
Now is better than ever for the Chiefs to pull off the upset. The offense is quietly playing past expectation, despite the injury to Jamaal Charles. Andy Reid owns a 15-2 record out of the bye week. Then, there’s Peyton Manning’s continuous struggles, which should aid the Kansas City defense. So what do we do here? Simple. We must figure out if the Broncos can score enough, because Alex Smith’s bad record when his team allows 24+ points is well documented. Manning’s upped Denver’s scoring since his bye week, and he still helped the offense to two touchdowns last week against the Colts well-thought press coverage. As a result, Kansas City isn’t a safe enough pick, given the climate of our Pick’em competition situation. Denver is definitely on upset alert, but we’ll take them with hesitation.
The Rest (1 point each)
(23) Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at (21) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
The Cowboys just HAVE to be due for a win, right? After so many close losses against quality teams and so many takeaway-less games, it seems like regression would give this team a lucky break sooner than later. As Dallas faces a rookie quarterback and a poor pass defense, perhaps the time is no better than now.
(3) Carolina Panthers (8-0) at (31) Tennessee Titans (2-6) **Lock of the Week**
It’s possible that the Panthers suffer from a let down after their three-game home swing ended with a big win over the Packers. It’s a possible that Marcus Mariota somehow builds off of his stellar performance against the league’s worst pass defense. Then again, most any things are possible. The truth is that the Panthers are the 28-rank favorite in our rankings for several reasons, and we will use that to pick the Panthers as our lock. Carolina doesn’t run away from teams often, so they aren’t often a lock candidate.
(24) Chicago Bears (3-5) at (8) St. Louis Rams (4-4)
It’s amazing to think that the Bears could actually win this game and have the same record as the Rams. Chicago somehow scraped together three wins against three AFC West teams in comeback fashion. Note that St. Louis owns a significant better defense than any of the teams Chicago defeated. The Bears’ best chance lies in shutting down Todd Gurley, which we don’t see happening.
(18) New Orleans Saints (4-5) at (20) Washington Redskins (3-5)
We honestly don’t know who to take with this match-up. Strategically speaking, picking the Saints is probably the slightly more sound choice. Kirk Cousins has his turnover troubles, and he hasn’t been able to make up for it because the downfield attack is limited. Unless DeSean Jackson breaks out, which is an unknown due to his hamstring issues, New Orleans is the oh-so-slightly better pick.
(27) Miami Dolphins (3-5) at (11) Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) **Upset of the Week**
Which Dolphins team will we get? Miami is being outscored 137-52 in its four losses against the AFC East, but outscoring the rest by a 119-69 margin. We decided not to go with the Chiefs for our upset, so we’ll settle for what we see as the next-best option.
(30) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at (25) Baltimore Ravens (2-6)
The match-up actually gives a slight advantage in the air to the Jaguars, but we think the Ravens will be well-rested and ready to turn their season around. Perhaps the postseason is an extreme long shot, but the team would like to at least no longer be on pace for a 4-12 season. Dean Pees will draw up enough plays to force mistakes out of Blake Bortles to get the win.
(1) New England Patriots (8-0) at (13) New York Giants (5-4)
This match-up missing GotW status by just one ranking spot from the Giants, who finished all of 0.27 points behind the Raiders for the needed 12th spot in the rankings. Perhaps fans should demand a recount! This is actually became a chance for us to reach out and make an upset pick, but we think the match-up is just too overwhelming. Remember when those Giants won the last three meetings against the Patriots? Pressure from the front seven as a major key. This Giants team is averaging just one sack per game.
(22) Houston Texans (3-5) at (2) Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)
It’s a shame we’ve received back-to-back uninspiring match-ups on Monday Night Football.
Bye dates: (15) Atlanta Falcons (6-3), (19) Indianapolis Colts (4-5), (26) San Francisco 49ers (3-6), (29) San Diego Chargers (2-7)
