NFL 2015 TABRankings: Week 9

Last week’s TABRankings showed the true separation between the top teams and the rest. However, due to another loss by the Green Bay Packers and some adjustments for the Arizona Cardinals during their bye week, that gap has suddenly closed. Only the New York Jets stepped back up to the plate of possibly getting past the top six, but they can only do so if they can survive tomorrow night’s reunion against Rex Ryan during a key battle against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. (How about that for a free plug?)

Beyond that, we have much of the same going on in the rankings. Only one team moved more than four spots, and that was the five-spot rise by the Minnesota Vikings. They’ve been waiting for a quality opponent, and they took care of business at home against the St. Louis Rams despite the loss of Teddy Bridgewater mid-game due to a concussion (on a dirty hit). Minnesota could further prove its worth as a showdown looms in Oakland against the Raiders. Both this game and the Jets-Bills tussle shape up to be Games of the Week for our Week 10 Pick’em. We’ll learn a lot about both winners, while the losers stay in mediocrity.

It seems like the rankings are truly settling, so hopefully Week 10 can provide a few surprises. We don’t want all the trends to be set.

For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.

Here’s our formula:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for Week 9.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.5.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 9 are available below. Make sure to check back each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 9