After a nightmarish Week 8, we experienced a near-perfect Week 9. Outside of one outcome in Charlotte, just everything we needed went to plan. Despite a disappointing second consecutive loss for Green Bay, we were able to correctly predict the other two Games of the Week. Furthermore, we also correctly predicted two key divisional match-ups (our LotW was basically a unanimous pick among the experts). Finally, we even hit on our Upset of the Week after going to the Indianapolis well one more time.
How much did that help us in the Pick’em competition? Let’s find out.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(5) Green Bay Packers (6-1) at (4) Carolina Panthers (7-0)
(7) St. Louis Rams (4-3) at (15) Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
(8) Oakland Raiders (4-3) at (11) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(24) Cleveland Browns (2-6) at (2) Cincinnati Bengals (7-0) **Lock of the Week**
(25) Miami Dolphins (3-4) at (18) Buffalo Bills (3-4)
(12) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at (22) Dallas Cowboys (2-5)
The Rest (1 point each)
(19) Washington Redskins (3-4) at (1) New England Patriots (7-0)
(31) Tennessee Titans (1-6) at (14) New Orleans Saints (4-4)
(29) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at (9) New York Jets (4-3)
(16) New York Giants (4-4) at (20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
(10) Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at (30) San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
(3) Denver Broncos (7-0) at (23) Indianapolis Colts (3-5) **Upset of the Week**
(28) Chicago Bears (2-5) at (27) San Diego Chargers (2-6)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 9-4 and 16 points (out of 22 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 82-50 and 132 points (62.12 win and 60.55 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-1 this week (13-11 overall… 54.17 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 3-0 this week (26-15 overall… 63.41 win percentage) [includes 2-4 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 3-6 overall (52 ranking points… 33.33 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 8-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Packers, Giants, Jets, Falcons, Rams, Bengals…
best streak: seven weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 92-40 | 1 | FiveThirtyEight | 149 | |
| 2 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 90-42 | 1 | C. Mortensen | 148 | |
| 3 | Don Banks, SI | 88-44 | 3 | D. Banks | 144 | |
| 3 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 88-44 | 4 | T. Jackson | 143 | |
| 5 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 87-45 | 5 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 142 | |
| 5 | C. Carter | 87-45 | 6 | Nate Davis, USAT | 141 | |
| 5 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 87-45 | 6 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 141 | |
| 8 | M. Irvin | 86-46 | 8 | J. Bell | 140 | |
| 8 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 86-46 | 8 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 140 | |
| 10 | N. Davis | 85-47 | 8 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 140 | |
| 10 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 85-47 | 8 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 140 | |
| 10 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 85-47 | 12 | V. Iyer | 139 | |
| 10 | K. Johnson | 85-47 | 12 | R. Jaworski | 139 | |
| 10 | P. Prisco | 85-47 | 14 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 138 | |
| 10 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 85-47 | 15 | M. Faulk | 137 | |
| M | Mean Record | 84.44-47.56 | M | Mean Points | 136.6 | |
| 16 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 84-48 | 16 | K. Joyner | 136 | |
| 17 | A. Caplan | 83-49 | 17 | M. Hoge | 135 | |
| 17 | S. Wickersham | 83-49 | 18 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 134 | |
| 19 | M. Ditka | 82-50 | 19 | K. Warner | 133 | |
| 19 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 82-50 | 20 | A. Dobrowolski | 132 | |
| 21 | Football Outsiders | 81-51 | 21 | FB Outsiders | 129 | |
| 21 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 81-51 | 21 | M. Schlereth | 129 | |
| 23 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 80-52 | 23 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 125 | |
| 24 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 77-55 | 24 | M. Golic | 122 | |
| 25 | S. Mariucci | 77-55 | 25 | E. Allen | 119 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
More or less, it seems like we used Week 9 to make up for lost ground from Week 8. That means we still have plenty of work to do, as we continue into Week 10. Right off the bat, we’ll get an interesting match-up on Thursday Night Football, as the Bills travel to face the Jets. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a swing game on TNF, as the previous four match-ups saw a consensus favorite of at least 90 percent (per Pickwatch). That outcome could very well be the tone setter for us. Make sure to check out our pick on Thursday!