We choose two games to go against the grain. The Chiefs pulled off the upset special, which was good. However, the Cowboys continued their problems in turnover battle and lost, which was bad. Luckily, we were able to balance it out some by going 9-3 in the other 12 games, allow us to fare better than most who took other picks against the grain.
Here’s a recap of how we fared last week. Then, we’ll look at our standing in the Pick’em competition.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(4) New York Jets (4-1) at (1) New England Patriots (5-0)
(11) Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at (6) Carolina Panthers (5-0)
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(16) Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at (27) San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
(13) Minnesota Vikings (3-2) at (30) Detroit Lions (1-5)
(21) Oakland Raiders (2-3) at (18) San Diego Chargers (2-4)
(15) Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at (12) New York Giants (3-3)
The Rest (1 point each)
(10) Buffalo Bills (3-3) v. (32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London, England
(20) New Orleans Saints (2-4) at (19) Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
(9) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at (25) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) **Upset of the Week**
(23) Houston Texans (2-4) at (24) Miami Dolphins (2-3)
(22) Cleveland Browns (2-4) at (14) St. Louis Rams (2-3)
(8) Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at (29) Tennessee Titans (1-4) **Lock of the Week**
(28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at (17) Washington Redskins (2-4)
(26) Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at (7) Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 10-4 and 16 points (out of 22 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 65-40 and 105 points (61.90 win and 61.40 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-0 this week (11-7 overall… 61.11 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 3-2 this week (20-12 overall… 62.5 win percentage) [includes 2-3 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 2-5 overall (32 ranking points… 28.57 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 6-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Packers, Giants, Jets, Falcons… best streak: five weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 73-32 | 1 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 116 | |
| 2 | C. Carter | 71-34 | 1 | FiveThirtyEight | 116 | |
| 2 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 71-34 | 3 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 114 | |
| 2 | C. Mortensen | 71-34 | 4 | Don Banks, SI | 112 | |
| 5 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 70-35 | 4 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 112 | |
| 6 | D. Banks | 69-36 | 6 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 111 | |
| 6 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 69-36 | 6 | T. Jackson | 111 | |
| 6 | V. Iyer | 69-36 | 8 | J. Bell | 110 | |
| 6 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 69-36 | 9 | Nate Davis, USAT | 109 | |
| 10 | M. Faulk | 68-37 | 9 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 109 | |
| 10 | M. Irvin | 68-37 | 9 | K. Johnson | 109 | |
| 10 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 68-37 | 12 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 108 | |
| 10 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 68-37 | 12 | M. Hoge | 108 | |
| M | Mean Record | 67.12-37.88 | M | Mean Points | 107.28 | |
| 14 | N. Davis | 67-38 | 14 | R. Jaworski | 107 | |
| 14 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 67-38 | 14 | K. Joyner | 107 | |
| 16 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 66-39 | 14 | K. Warner | 107 | |
| 17 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 65-40 | 17 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 105 | |
| 17 | A. Dobrowolski | 65-40 | 18 | M. Ditka | 104 | |
| 17 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 65-40 | 18 | P. Prisco | 104 | |
| 20 | A. Caplan | 64-41 | 20 | Football Outsiders | 103 | |
| 20 | FB Outsiders | 64-41 | 20 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 103 | |
| 20 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 64-41 | 21 | M. Golic | 102 | |
| 20 | S. Wickersham | 64-41 | 21 | M. Schlereth | 102 | |
| 24 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 62-43 | 24 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 98 | |
| 25 | S. Mariucci | 61-44 | 25 | E. Allen | 95 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
There wasn’t much movement in the Pick’em standings, but at least we gained a game on the top dog. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo has seemingly supplanted us as the go-to source for the Pick’em, but we hope to change that over the upcoming weeks. Meanwhile, over at NFL Pickwatch, we’re still 12 games behind leader Gordon McGuinness of Pro Football Focus.
Leading up to Week 8, there are seven games in which the team with the better record plays on the road. It could make for an interesting dynamic, and it may give us a chance to advance ground. Of course, we’ll need to find the correct spots to go against the grain. We were actually a bit too conservative in Week 7. Had we gone against the grain in two toss-up match-ups (Raiders at Chargers and Saints at Colts), we would’ve moved above the mean totals. Will we get a bit more aggressive this weekend? Find out on Saturday!