Ever since the Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII and looked like they could be on top of the NFL for a while, any sort of trouble in the franchise became immediate fodder for the “dirtsheet” styling of the Mainstream Sports Media. After all, few headlines grab more attention than the ones that feature a franchise in power facing some controversy or hardship (See: Deflategate).
Given the way the past two weeks panned for the Seahawks, it’s led to an onslaught of speculation whether the team is no longer the power it used to be. After all, Seattle now owns a 2-4 record, which matches the team’s regular season loss total from 2014 and surpasses the team’s overall loss total from 2013. Worse yet, the Seahawks lost their last two games despite holding double-digit leads in the second half. This includes a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter in Cincinnati and a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter at home against Carolina. Sure, both teams are undefeated, but we have our doubts about both. By all means, these are disappointing losses.
Thus, it’s for good reason that the Mainstream Sports Media questions the existential crisis of this current Seahawks team. This is the Legion of the Boom we’re discussing, right? This is the same unit that completely shutdown a 600-point offense in Super Bowl XLVIII. This is the same unit that’s become the defensive standard for the league over the past four years.
However, in those same four years, the Legion of the Boom has also struggled to close out games in the fourth quarter. In fact, the recent struggles are not new for Seattle. Rather, the four blown leads in the fourth quarter this season are nothing but a manifestation of the defense’s struggles in the fourth quarter in recent seasons. No team has blown more fourth-quarter leads since 2012, when the Seahawks first emerged as a Super Bowl contender. That fact, within some statistical context, leads our Thursday Night Football feature.
The 12’s in Seattle have recently felt the bitter sting from the Seahawks’ fourth-quarter problems on defense catching up to them. (photo rights to Joe Nicholson / USA TODAY Sports)
Since the start of the 2012 season, when Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback and the defense soon began to emerge as an elite unit, the Seahawks own a 38-16 regular season record and 6-2 postseason record. In the same time frame, the team’s blown 12 fourth-quarter leads in the regular season and two more such leads in the postseason. In other words, 14 of the franchise’s 18 losses in that span have occurred via the blown fourth-quarter lead. One can only imagine where this four-year run would stand if the defense played as good or better than it did during the first three quarters. (Note: Wilson has 10 fourth-quarter comebacks during this span.)
Let’s look at each of the fourth-quarter comebacks:
- Week 1, 2012: Cardinals 20, Seahawks 16. Lead of 16-13 with 9:25 left overcome by John Skelton and Kevin Kolb.
- Week 8, 2012: Lions 28, Seahawks 24. Lead of 24-21 with 5:27 left overcome by Matt Stafford.
- Week 12, 2012: Dolphins 24, Seahawks 21. Lead of 21-14 with 7:54 left overcome by Ryan Tannehill.
- Divisional Round, 2012: Falcons 30, Seahawks 28. Lead of 28-27 with 0:31 left overcome by Matt Ryan.
- Week 5, 2013: Colts 34, Seahawks 28. Lead of 28-23 with 15:00 left overcome by Andrew Luck.
- Week 14, 2013: 49ers 19, Seahawks 17. Lead of 17-16 with 6:20 left overcome by Colin Kaepernick.
- Week 16, 2013: Cardinals 17, Seahawks 10. Lead of 10-9 with 7:26 left overcome by Carson Palmer.
- Week 6, 2014: Cowboys 30, Seahawks 23. Lead of 23-20 with 8:16 left overcome by Tony Romo.
- Week 11, 2014: Chiefs 24, Seahawks 20. Lead of 20-17 with 15:00 left overcome by Alex Smith.
- Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24. Lead of 24-14 with 15:00 left overcome by Tom Brady.
- Week 1, 2015: Rams 34, Seahawks 31 (OT). Lead of 31-24 with 4:39 left overcome by Nick Foles.
- Week 2, 2015: Packers 27, Seahawks 17. Lead of 17-16 with 15:00 left overcome by Aaron Rodgers.
- Week 5, 2015: Bengals 27, Seahawks 24 (OT). Lead of 24-7 with 15:00 left overcome by Andy Dalton.
- Week 6, 2015: Panthers 27, Seahawks 23. Lead of 23-14 with 11:46 left overcome by Cam Newton.
We can say that these fourth-quarter problems are “catching up” to the Seahawks because they’ve definitely gotten worse over the team’s last seven games. During the first nine blown leads, Seattle never held a multi-possession led in the fourth quarter. However, during this 2-5 stretch (including Super Bowl XLIX), Seattle held a multi-possession lead in the fourth quarter thrice.
What’s even more frustrating about these comebacks is that the defense has failed to make any stops with the slim lead. Since their strip sack fumble return touchdown in Week 1 (with 4:39 left), the Seahawks defense have exactly two “stops” in the fourth quarter or overtime during their four losses. It’s gotten to the point of metaphorically jumping the shark.
However, this is once again merely the team’s past problems coming into play. Of the 14 aforementioned blown leads, the Seahawks gave up lead nine times in the drive immediately after they got the lead. Couple that with the three recent multi-possession blown leads, and we see that this problem is a true bug-a-boo. So what’s the deal? Is this the problem that goes beyond the losses?
Table 1: Defensive Passer Rating by Situation (Regular Season an Postseason)
| Year | Overall | 4th Qtr or OT | 4Q/OT One-Poss Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015: 2-4 record | 126-192-1412-6-3 (91.32 DPR) | 52-63-632-4-0 (129.63 DPR) | 28-34-353-3-0 (139.34 DPR) |
| 2014: 14-5 record | 392-627-3956-24-19 (80.61 DPR) | 124-194-1318-9-7 (84.09 DPR) | 25-40-315-2-2 (82.81 DPR) |
| 2013: 16-3 record | 380-641-3779-19-32 (65.13 DPR) | 132-222-1306-5-13 (59.25 DPR) | 27-49-339-1-3 (58.12 DPR) |
| 2012: 12-6 record | 364-627-3862-20-21 (72.80 DPR) | 90-164-1095-4-6 (68.52 DPR) | 45-71-591-3-1 (97.80 DPR) |
| Total: 44-18 record | 1262-2087-13009-69-75 (74.49 DPR) | 398-643-4351-22-26 (76.42 DPR) | 125-194-1598-9-6 (92.68 DPR) |
Source: Pro Football Reference’s Game Play Finder
Perhaps these results can shed a little more light. It seems like the pass defense has completely crumbled in the fourth quarter in 2015, suggesting that past problems have certainly manifested into a bigger issue. We don’t know if this is part of a Super Bowl hangover or something else, but it’s definitely an outlier worth monitoring for the remainder of the season. However, gross fourth quarter numbers suggest that the problem in exclusive to 2015. The Seahawks very much played to their relative norm during the fourth quarter in the three previous seasons. We’ll now have to defer to the “one-possession lead” numbers.
Those numbers suggest that 2015 isn’t the exception to the rule. The 2012 Seahawks pass defense also struggled when holding a one-possession lead. They also had a similar volume of passes, compared to where the 2015 team will likely project. Remember that the 2012 Seahawks held a 6-5 record before making a dominant late-season run, so most of those passes came in the earlier stages of the regular season and the postseason. The 2015 team may have to work from a similar frame of context.
So what’s our conclusion? The Seahawks are currently seeing all of their fourth-quarter issue hit a high tide of sorts, and this team needs to right the ship with regression as soon as possible. We certainly expect this team to get better defensively down the stretch, but it will need to likely come at the expense of the Arizona Cardinals (current NFC West leaders, as well as Week 10 and Week 17 opponent) or Minnesota Vikings (current second Wild Card team, as well as Week 13 opponent) for the postseason to a possibility.
AS FOR TONIGHT’S GAME…
With the Seahawks traveling to face the 49ers in a surprising battle of 2-4 teams, we think the talk about Seattle’s fourth-quarter problems will predictably take a rest. That’s because the match-up favors the Seahawks to handle business on defense and grab a comfortable lead. Sure, we can look at the loss in Cincinnati as an example of why even a “big lead” is longer safe, but we know Colin Kaepernick isn’t the guy to make a big comeback against Seattle.
One tweet by Football Outsiders writer Scott Kascmar gives us enough ammo to support our claim:
Kaepernick vs. Seahawks: 62 points on 58 drives in 6 games (1-5). 3 FG drives without a first down. pic.twitter.com/wLbEOMMr2c
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) December 16, 2014
If this hold to form, the 49ers will probably score 7-13 points in this one. That certain won’t be enough. As a result, we’ll take the Seahawks over the 49ers. Furthermore, we’ll take the Seahawks (-7) and the under (42.5) for Bovada‘s line tonight.