NFL 2015 TABRankings: Week 6

With five of the 10 current winning teams continuing to hold an undefeated record, we didn’t expect to see much change in the TABRankings. In fact, if anything, we expected to see a bigger separation between the top group of teams and the rest.

That’s only about half true. The Week 6 TABRankings indeed sees a top group of teams emerge from the pack, but it also sees a bottom group of teams lag behind the middle tier. As a result, you have three tiers of efficiency in the league right now. The top nine teams all have winning records and at least seem to be cooking up a playoff profile. The middle 13 teams perfectly fit our narrative of mediocrity, albeit with most of those teams owning a losing record due to some tough or close losses. Finally, there is also the bottom 10 teams, who each have looked like a legitimate bad team at some stretch this season.

For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.

Here’s our formula:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for Week 6.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be (1/3).

With now all that put together, the results for Week 6 are available below. Make sure to check back each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 6