NFL 2015 TABRankings: Week 5

We’re now through Week 5 in the NFL season, and the heavy presence of mediocre teams is still a major problem. Only 13 teams now own a .500 record or better, which caused several teams to see a drop in the True TABR despite winning on Sunday. While the Mainstream Sports Media focuses on the six undefeated teams, which is more than normal, we know full well a big reason why they still own a perfect record. Three of the six undefeated teams (Bengals, Packers and Panthers) currently don’t own a single win against a quality team, while a fourth (Broncos) merely owns a lone win over a .500 team.

As of now, there are only six games between winning teams through the five weeks. This is an extension of the trend exposed last week’s feature. Will this turn around, or are we doomed to seeing a very heavy class of mediocrity in the NFL this year?

Looking at the Week 5 rankings, we see that 10 teams stand out from the rest. Beyond that, it’s anybody’s guess who will emerge as a true playoff contender. The rankings believe the Steelers (11th) and Cowboys (14th) are holding up despite their respective quarterback injuries. It only thinks that the Rams (12th) and Eagles (13th) could have it worse than going 2-3 through a top-10 schedule thus far. Obviously, there’s a lot more to those discussions, but it’s not like any other team has truly made an argument.

As for the bottom of the pack, we see that seven of the bottom 10 teams have faced top-10 schedules. Could this mean that preseason playoff hopefuls like the Ravens (23rd), Chiefs (24th) and Saints (27th) eventually make a run and get back into the playoff hunt? We believe you have to go back to the 2002 season to find the last time multiple teams (re: Jets and Titans) made the playoffs in spite of a 1-4 start. For these teams, they must overcome a horrid start to the season defensively to have a chance.

For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.

Here’s our formula:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for Week 5.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.5.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 5 are available below. Make sure to check back each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2>, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 5