NFL Week 5: No Loss Bigger Than Jamaal Charles

As Week 5 comes to a close, the NFL continues to see disappointment in some expected areas. The Seattle Seahawks blew yet another fourth-quarter lead, this time despite a 17-point lead, to drop to 2-3 on the season. The Baltimore Ravens fared similarly bad, blowing another fourth-quarter lead and allowing yet another mediocre quarterback to pass for 350+ yards, dropping the team to 1-4. Finally, the Kansas City Chiefs extended its pass defense woes to a loss against the lowly Chicago Bears, dropping them to 1-4 as well. To makes matters worse, they also lost running back Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL. No loss is more devastating than the one with Charles. As you’ll see today, we rarely see a back like them have such a per-rush impact.

Perhaps no running back in NFL history, besides Jim Brown or Barry Sanders, has offered as consistent of a threat as Charles when it comes to per-carry efficiency. This is a back who has rushed for fewer than five yards per attempt (re: a standard for elite running) only one, and that was in 2012, when he rushed for approximately 4.97 yards per attempt. In fact, the 5.47-yard career average for Charles tops even the great Jim Brown. Meanwhile, Charles also worked nicely as a receiver from the backfield, making him one of the most efficient running backs of all-time. Somehow, all that continues to escape the Mainstream Sports Media’s presence.

We’re here to talk about it now, though. Thanks to the great query results from Pro Football Reference, we can show the various ways Charles’ per-rush efficiency compares favorably to most of the all-time greats.

First, we look at career per-attempt rushing averages. Charles tops all backs with at least 1200 carries, and frankly only Brown comes close. With 5.47 yards per rush attempt, Charles could see a significant decline after his second ACL injury as a pro and still finish ahead of Brown by career’s end. Below, we look at the top 10 players in per-rush average (Table 1).

Table 1: Most Career Rush Yards per Attempt (1200+ attempts in NFL, AFL and/or AAFC)

Source: Pro Football Reference’s Player Season Finder (as of Week 5, 2015)

Obviously, as this list shows, posting an Top 10 average isn’t a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. However, the rate at which Charles is going is second-to-none. The only thing that has unfortunately stopped him is a pair of major knee injuries, with this being the second. Back in 2011, the “Turbo Lover” suffered a season-ending injury during a Week 2 loss at Detroit. As our writer Adam Dobrowolski first analyzed for Cold Hard Football Facts, the injury ended one of the most dominant stretches of football in NFL history.

In that CHFF article, we mention an unreal stretch of dominance for Charles. In a 26-game span from Game 9 of the 2009 season to his 2011 injury, Charles totaled 2518 rush yards on 403 attempts, good for an other-worldly 6.25-yard average. Excluding the game of injury, he averaged at least five yards per attempt 18 times (re: 72 percent of games in that span) while tallying at least 10 attempts in each game. This includes an NFL-record 12 such games in 2010, which leads us to our next focus.

Second, we look at standout per-attempt averages in individual games. With his 18-of-25 run included, Charles ranks 16th since 1960 with 36 games of 10+ rush attempts and 5+ yards per attempt. This already puts him in truly elite company, including three current players (Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson). However, consistency is a key that may even separate Charles from some of the greats. We show a comparison of per-attempt averages in individual games (Table 2) for the top 16 backs of this player game query.

Table 2: Most 5+ Yard Averages, Career Game Total (10+ attempts in NFL/AFL since 1960)

6+ Yds: Games with a 6-yard rush average or better; 3- Yds: Games with a 3-yard rush average or worse
Games: Only games w/ 10+ rush attempts; Source: Pro Football Reference’s Player Game Finder (as of Week 5, 2015)

Looking at this table, we see that only one back truly compares to the greatest of all-time, Jim Brown. That man is Jamaal Charles, who has the ridiculous distinction of posting only one game with three yards per attempt or fewer (with 10+ attempts). That games was the ninth game of the 2010 season for the Chiefs, when Charles tallied 41 yards on 14 carries. Had he totaled just two more yards, he would’ve owned a clean sheet. This is mindblowingly incredible, and it may make Charles the greatest per-attempt running back ever.

Finally, we look at standout per-attempt averages on a seasonal basis. Remember we mentioned that Charles averaged fewer than five yards per attempt only once in his career. That came in the 2013 season, when he rushed for 1287 yards on 259 attempts, good for only a 4.969-yard average. Besides that, the only thing holding him back is usage. As a rookie, Charles tallied only 67 rush attempts. Meanwhile, he ran the ball only 12 times before his season-ending injury in 2011. This season, he’ll finish with only 71 rush attempts. That leaves only five other seasons for Charles to make his impact, and he tallied at least 190 attempts in each season.

That results in a total of four seasons with 190+ rush attempts and a 5+ yard average. Only 17 running backs achieved this multiple times (Table 3) from 1920 to 2014. We show each of those running backs in the below table.

Table 3: Multiple Seasons with a 5+ Yard Average (190+ attempts in NFL, AFL or AAFC)

Source: Pro Football Reference’s Player Season Finder (as of 2014)

Once again, we see how special Charles’ lengthy run of efficiency is. Moving forward, it will come down how he can recover from a second major injury and how he can maintain his efficiency in his later years. Note that only Wendell Tyler achieved the above feat in Table 3 for two different teams. This may make Charles’ recovery from this injury a process that eventually leads him to the Hall of Fame.

We wish the best for Charles. His efficiency and explosiveness will certainly be missed in the remained of this season.