We apologize for any inconvenience. We had an error with our Week 4 TABRankings that need to fix, so we don’t have the Games of the Week just yet. Luckily, there isn’t much you are going to miss. We don’t expect many (if any) match-ups at that quality. Also, with a very busy weekend at hand, we haven’t had to time to post up commentary just yet. We’ll keep our prediction notes short and sweet.
(Update, 10/12: We fixed the problem we had with the TABRankings, so we added in the Game of the Week. It seems like one game we didn’t expect, Rams at Packers, was the lone GotW. However, there were two match-ups that close to being GotW’s.)
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that we’re only looking at 2015 data from now on to make our picks. Our 2015 NFL Season Predictions made back in August no longer have any say in these picks. Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(12) St. Louis Rams (2-2) at (4) Green Bay Packers (4-0)
We don’t see at all the Rams offense keeping up with Aaron Rodgers and crew at Lambeau Field.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(21) Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at (28) Houston Texans (1-3)
We incorrectly picked the Thursday Night Football game for the first time this season.
(24) Cleveland Browns (1-3) at (18) Baltimore Ravens (1-3)
We figure the Ravens will eventually get things turned around. We don’t figure the same for the Browns.
(5) Denver Broncos (4-0) at (19) Oakland Raiders (2-2)
The Raiders are coming back to Earth, as the Denver defense will gives Derek Carr issues all afternoon.
The Rest (1 point each)
(15) Washington Redskins (2-2) at (3) Atlanta Falcons (4-0)
The Falcons will be on upset alert, just because Washington’s offensive strengths involve use of the backfield. Guarding the running backs is the biggest struggle for Atlanta right now. However, we have Matt Ryan beating Kirk Cousins on most days.
(17) Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at (2) Cincinnati Bengals (4-0) **Upset of the Week**
A recent sample size of factors for Seattle, including the short week and road game with an early kickoff, say the Seahawks should lose. Meanwhile, a recent sample size of factors for Cincinnati, including a big game against a quality team, say the Bengals should lose. We’ll go against the grain with this tough pick and hope it works out in our favor. Some 4-0 team has to lose.
(26) Chicago Bears (1-3) at (22) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
Now that the Chiefs are finally not playing an undefeated team, they should be able to handle business at home against the lowly Bears.
(25) New Orleans Saints (1-3) at (16) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)
This is a tough pick that can go either way, so we go with relative scoring on this one. The Philly defense is the best unit in this match-up.
(29) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at (32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)
This is another seemingly evenly-played match-up. Again, we’ll go with relative scoring, which says Tampa Bay may be the worst team in the NFL. The Jaguars aren’t good either, but at least they are respectable when the Week 3 game is excluded.
(10) Buffalo Bills (2-2) at (23) Tennessee Titans (1-2)
The Bills defense is facing some regression as expected, but they match up well to attack Marcus Mariota and tally several sacks. Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor continues to show a lot of promise, which gives Buffalo an offensive advantage.
(9) Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at (30) Detroit Lions (0-4)
The good pass protection from Arizona should cancel out the pass rush that Detroit showed in Seattle on Monday night. Meanwhile, we don’t see Matt Stafford keeping up with Carson Palmer. A late kick-off helps Arizona too.
(1) New England Patriots (3-0) at (13) Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
It’s Tom Brady v. Brandon Weeden, so this outcome is quite clear in our eyes.
(27) San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at (6) New York Giants (2-2) **Lock of the Week**
The Giants are quietly playing like a very good team that simply hasn’t finished. New York won’t have a problem with the latter part.
(11) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at (20) San Diego Chargers (2-2)
This one may be amended before Monday night. We think this is about a 50-50 match-up, but we trust Philip Rivers over Mike Vick.
BYE DATES: (7) New York Jets (3-1), (8) Carolina Panthers (4-0), (14) Minnesota Vikings (2-2), (30) Miami Dolphins (1-3)
