NFL 2015 TABRankings: Week 4

We’ve had an extremely busy week, so there’s no time for commentary. Just note that our adjustments from 2014 are over for all, but two teams. With the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans on the bye during Week 4, they have still only played in three games. As a results, they still get the 25 percent adjustment from last year. As for the rest, they will only get opponent adjustments from 2015.

For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.

Here’s our formula:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

For the Patriots and Titans, these rankings will feature some TABR from 2014 and some TABR from 2015. For the rest, only the TABR from 2015 will come into account. The 2015 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR for Week 4. Come next week, last year’s numbers will be completely out of the picture.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula for teams with three games played:
(Raw TABR * 0.75) + (2014 TABR * 0.25) = True TABR

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for teams with four games played:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.5.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 4 are available below. Note that for the teams with three games, the “Raw TABR” below are the totals after the 75 percent weighted adjustment. Also, note that there will be no rankings for either “Raw TABR” or “Adjustment” because there is not an even playing for all teams. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 4