We’re now at Week 3, which means we have “make or break” games for the 0-2 teams. We originally predicted six of the nine current 0-2 teams to win in Week 3. Do we change that? Last week, we amended two picks. One was very smart (Broncos at Chiefs), and we almost nailed the prediction to a tee. One was very stupid (Titans at Browns), and we clearly out thought ourselves to suffer one of many Pick’em losses for the week. We’re hoping to not only pick wisely with our amendments, but we hope to bounce back from an awful Week 2.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Remember that since it’s only Week 3, this week’s predictions will generally focus much on how our 2015 NFL Season Predictions panned out. Considering that we used 50 percent weight for the 2015 season in our Week 2 TABRankings, we’ll apply similar logic here. In this case, Week 2 play will account for about 50 percent of our consideration, while the rest goes to the original predictions.
Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(6) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at (16) Baltimore Ravens (0-2) **Upset of the Week**
Rarely will one see a Game of the Week feature the Upset of the Week, but that is the case here. After two road games out west, the Ravens come back home and face a must-win game. This battle should be close one regardless, but we will stick with our original prediction that Baltimore eeks out a much-needed victory within the division.
(11) Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at (5) Dallas Cowboys (2-0)
The Cowboys are suddenly the forgotten team in the NFC East. Many experts are simply assuming that the team is done for without Tony Romo at quarterback and Dez Bryant at wide receiver. While it is true that with Brandon Weeden, this team is capable of losing any (or all) of their upcoming games, it is also true the Weeden just needs to protect the ball and win the field position battle to give the Cowboys a chance at winning. Atlanta has shown some good things in two victory, but the Falcons needed two fourth-quarter comebacks to beat two 0-2 teams. Remember, that these two teams have the same two teams, and so far, the Cowboys look better.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(25) Washington Redskins (1-1) at (27) New York Giants (0-2)
We correctly predicted the Thursday Night Football match-up.
(29) New Orleans Saints (0-2) at (7) Carolina Panthers (2-0) **Amended Pick**
The Saints won’t have Drew Brees to start at quarterback, so this one is going to be firmly in favor of Carolina.
(14) Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at (26) Tennessee Titans (1-1)
The Colts somehow start 0-2 again, and they can break out of their funk with a much-needed win in the AFC South. Actually, Indianapolis can grab a tie for the division lead with a win here. We expect Andrew Luck to bounce back, as the Tennessee pressure isn’t what the Bills and Jets were able to create. The Titans will make it tough, but expect the Colts to prevail.
(17) San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at (4) Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
Arizona’s offense looked sharp in two wins. San Francisco’s defense looked awesome at home in Week 1, but awful on the road in Week 2. With travels to a tough venue, we just can’t rely on the 49ers to win if we don’t know what we’re going to get.
(10) Buffalo Bills (1-1) at (15) Miami Dolphins (1-1)
This game was nearly a Game of the Week, missing out by just one spot in the rankings. We expect the Bills to bounce back defensively, as Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have nearly the amount of command that Tom Brady has on offense. Also, with Ndamukong Suh starting slow for the Dolphins, we don’t expect the Miami front seven to create as much pressure on Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo offense. Hidden in that 40-32 defeat for the Bills last week was the offense’s poor job of extending drives and capitalizing on New England mistakes in the first half. Buffalo will make up for those errors tomorrow afternoon in Miami to get the win.
The Rest (1 point each)
(28) Oakland Raiders (1-1) at (19) Cleveland Browns (1-1)
We don’t like picking the West Coast teams when they have a cross-country trip and an early kickoff. Yes, there are some upset that the Browns are starting Josh McCown over Johnny Manziel, but it’s the correct move for Cleveland. The team is looking for stability under center to build the offense. Let Manziel learn on the sidelines for a while, as a two-year college starter should do.
(31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at (23) Houston Texans (0-2)
While Jameis Winston had a solid game last week, we think the Buccaneers got a lot of help from the Drew Brees injury. Tampa Bay probably doesn’t win if Brees was 100 percent. Whatever the case may be now, we think the Texans will use their urgency to win.
(18) San Diego Chargers (1-1) at (22) Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
This is tough one to predict, but we’ll stick with our original pick. Although San Diego does well in this spot, we generally don’t like West Coast teams winning with an early kickoff in a cross-country game. Teddy Bridgewater should manage against a Chargers defense that avoids allowing big plays, but also struggles to create big plays.
(30) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at (1) New England Patriots (2-0)
We’d pick the Patriots to be the Lock of the Week, but we figure they’ll be available in upcoming weeks.
(24) Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at (12) New York Jets (2-0)
We feel tempted to amend this pick, as the Eagles offense will eventually get going. However, this match-up favors the Jets. Look at the New York interior defensive line, especially with how it matches up against the Philadelphia interior offensive line. It may very well be another long day for the Eagles offense. However, we do wonder if the Jets can win when they’re not getting five takeaways per game.
(9) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at (21) St. Louis Rams (1-1)
Big Ben and crew bounced back nicely last week. This match-up all comes down to our doubt that Nick Foles and the St. Louis offense can keep up on the scoreboard against a Pittsburgh team that returns Le’Veon Bell to the starting lineup.
(32) Chicago Bears (0-2) at (8) Seattle Seahawks (0-2) **Lock of the Week**
Rarely do you ever see a 0-2 team get picked to the Lock of the Week, but that’s the case here. Seattle returns Kam Chancellor, just as the Seahawks face a Chicago team that will have to start Jimmy Clausen under center. This could get ugly.
(3) Denver Broncos (2-0) at (20) Detroit Lions (0-2)
The Detroit defense hasn’t looked good without Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley after they left in free agency. It is something we expected. However, it looms large here because the Denver offense is still finding its intricate balance between the Gary Kubiak and Peyton Manning styles of play. Detroit defense won’t be able to slow up Manning quite the way Baltimore or Kansas City did. And those were games the Broncos still won! Also, expect the Denver defense to beat down Matthew Stafford.
(13) Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) at (2) Green Bay Packers (2-0)
It’s a shame this game isn’t a Game of the Week, as the Chiefs needed to be one higher spot (or the Packers needed to be one lower spot) to fit the criteria. Regardless, it is one we see Green Bay winning, simply because we don’t envision Alex Smith keeping up with Aaron Rodgers on the scoreboard. Remember that Smith is 3-34-1 as a starter when his team allows 24+ points.
These are our picks submitted to NFL Pickwatch.