After a wacky Week 2, we see many huge changes to the TABRankings, at least when it comes to middle of the pack. In a weekend filled with upsets, each of the bottom four from last week’s rankings earned a win. However, seven of the top 10 teams also won, and those teams each improved to 2-0. As a result, we see the clear emergence of those seven teams, while the rest is very much so up in the air.
This includes nine teams starting 0-2 and ranging anywhere from eighth (Seahawks) to 32nd (Bears) in our rankings. Those two teams happen to square off in Seattle on Sunday in the lone Week 3 battle between winless teams. Overall, the nine 0-2 teams owned an average 13.44 TABRank in 2014. We have half of last year’s Top 8 with an 0-2 mark (Seahawks, Colts, Ravens and Lions) to start off this season. Oh, how so much can change in just one season. We’ll see a lot “must-win” games coming up in Week 3.
Now let’s get to the rankings. For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.
Here’s our formula:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
NOTE: The quality win percentage and relative points average will both be excluded in Weeks 1 and 2.
We must note that two games still don’t make a legitimate sample size, so these rankings will feature some TABR from 2014 and some TABR from 2015. The 2015 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Additionally, there will be the 2014 TABR. The two parts combine to create the True TABR for Week 2. This dynamic will continue to play out until Week 4.
The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 2:
(Raw TABR * 0.5) + (2014 TABR * 0.5) = True TABR
With now all that put together, the results for Week 2 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!
The TABRankings top eight:
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5
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True TABRankings — Week 2
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | 2014 TABR | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | New England Patriots | 2-0 | 424.56 (5th) | 683.59 (1st) | 554.08 |
| 2 | 2 | Green Bay Packers | 2-0 | 415.65 (6th) | 596.28 (2nd) | 505.97 |
| 3 | 3 | Denver Broncos | 2-0 | 437.22 (4th) | 511.66 (4th) | 474.44 |
| 4 | 7 | Arizona Cardinals | 2-0 | 500.32 (1st) | 345.33 (10th) | 422.83 |
| 5 | 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 2-0 | 392.10 (8th) | 423.40 (6th) | 407.75 |
| 6 | 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2-0 | 470.19 (2nd) | 332.75 (11th) | 401.47 |
| 7 | 10 | Carolina Panthers | 2-0 | 406.23 (7th) | 289.15 (14th) | 347.69 |
| 8 | 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 0-2 | 27.70 (25th) | 582.29 (3rd) | 305.00 |
| 9 | 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-1 | 275.65 (12th) | 312.39 (12th) | 294.02 |
| 10 | 8 | Buffalo Bills | 1-1 | 208.35 (13th) | 348.77 (9th) | 278.56 |
| 11 | 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 2-0 | 342.62 (9th) | 185.92 (21st) | 264.27 |
| 12 | 22 | New York Jets | 2-0 | 457.09 (3rd) | 70.64 (27th) | 263.87 |
| 13 | 11 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1-1 | 189.19 (15th) | 276.37 (16th) | 232.78 |
| 14 | 9 | Indianapolis Colts | 0-2 | -24.49 (31st) | 464.86 (5th) | 220.19 |
| 15 | 15 | Miami Dolphins | 1-1 | 185.83 (16th) | 253.13 (17th) | 219.48 |
| 16 | 12 | Baltimore Ravens | 0-2 | 22.66 (26th) | 412.91 (7th) | 217.79 |
| 17 | 13 | San Francisco 49ers | 1-1 | 180.83 (18th) | 249.54 (18th) | 215.19 |
| 18 | 16 | San Diego Chargers | 1-1 | 181.19 (17th) | 226.29 (19th) | 203.74 |
| 19 | 24 | Cleveland Browns | 1-1 | 194.30 (14th) | 173.05 (22nd) | 183.68 |
| 20 | 14 | Detroit Lions | 0-2 | 9.72 (28th) | 356.37 (8th) | 183.05 |
| 21 | 21 | St. Louis Rams | 1-1 | 167.24 (19th) | 165.58 (23rd) | 166.41 |
| 22 | 27 | Minnesota Vikings | 1-1 | 159.78 (21st) | 145.44 (25th) | 152.61 |
| 23 | 20 | Houston Texans | 0-2 | 13.18 (27th) | 288.65 (15th) | 150.92 |
| 24 | 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0-2 | 3.43 (29th) | 291.84 (13th) | 147.64 |
| 25 | 30 | Washington Redskins | 1-1 | 295.00 (11th) | -10.32 (29th) | 142.34 |
| 26 | 25 | Tennessee Titans | 1-1 | 301.56 (10th) | -41.83 (32nd) | 129.87 |
| 27 | 23 | New York Giants | 0-2 | 58.71 (24th) | 196.43 (20th) | 127.57 |
| 28 | 29 | Oakland Raiders | 1-1 | 162.73 (20th) | 33.15 (28th) | 97.94 |
| 29 | 26 | New Orleans Saints | 0-2 | -14.30 (30th) | 159.25 (24th) | 72.48 |
| 30 | 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-1 | 138.08 (23rd) | -17.17 (30th) | 60.46 |
| 31 | 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-1 | 138.77 (22nd) | -30.59 (31st) | 54.09 |
| 32 | 28 | Chicago Bears | 0-2 | -78.97 (32nd) | 116.04 (26th) | 18.54 |
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BONUS: EXTRA NOTES FOR THE 2-0 AND 0-2 TEAMS
Obviously, the Arizona Cardinals owning the league’s best Raw TABR through two weeks is a major development. This is a team that seemed destined for record-based regression, but they’ve actually taken a step up through two weeks. Of course, it helps that Arizona played two of the four worst teams in the league. No team owns a worse average opponent TABRank through two weeks…. We’re actually surprising that the New York Jets didn’t own the best Raw TABR at this point. They own the league’s best turnover margin (plus-8) by a comfortable total. In fact, only two other teams own a turnover margin better than plus-3, and the Denver Broncos (plus-5) and Cincinnati Bengals (plus-3) combine to equal the Jets’ margin. Also of note, the Jets own the best Pythagorean Win Percentage through two weeks…. The team the Jets beat on Monday Night, the Indianapolis Colts, may not own the league’s worst Raw TABR, but they still have an awful distinction early in 2015. They are the only team NOT to lead at any point in Week 1 or Week 2…. Along with the Jets, the Pittsburgh Steelers made the biggest move up in the rankings, climbing up 10 spot from 19th to ninth. Pittsburgh earned nearly 27 points for leading by 17+ points during the game’s final 35 minutes and 45 seconds against the 49ers…. Surprisingly, only a few teams took a notable tumble, led by the Philadelphia Eagles dropping seven spot in the rankings. The Eagles’ flat play on offense is felt most by the team’s negative-19.27 Real Quarterback Rating. That ranks 25th in the league through two games this season.