As the final week of preparation for Super Bowl XLIX continues, we move to the fifth part of a six-part examination on some key stories heading into the big game. Each part will use regression analysis, comparative analysis or playoff precedence to examine each chapter of this narrative. Today, we examine the starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks. In just three seasons, Russell Wilson continues to prove his ability to handle and thrives during the biggest and toughest spots in the game.
Since Day 1 in the NFL, doubters and critics made their opinions known about Russell Wilson. For a guy that looked much a first-round worthy quarterback in the NFL draft, getting selected in third round showed how much the doubts prevailed. Many experts saw Wilson as “too short” to play quarterback, as if past quarterback under six tall didn’t make their success known. Still, as Wilson quickly proved to be a competent starter, critics pointed to Seattle’s running game and defense as two major seasons why Wilson was having so much rookie success in 2012. They called “limited” and claimed that he couldn’t “carry” the team when needed.
Statistics and team results suggested otherwise in 2012. So did Wilson’s scrambling and deep-passing abilities. The same continued in 2013, when Wilson defied critics and won Super Bowl XLVIII. It’s again no different in 2014.
In any of his three season as an NFL starting quarterback, Russell Wilson proved his critics wrong. (photo rights unknown)
If there’s been any one person who consistently called out the Wilson critics, it’s been our own Adam Dobrowolski. He provided stellar evidence of the DangeRuss nature of Seattle’s rookie starting quarterback in big games (published for Cold, Hard Football Facts in 2012). He went to the well again in 2013, showing that Wilson barely regressed from his outstanding rookie form (again published for CHFF). In previewing Super Bowl XLVIII for CHFF, Dobrowolski then provided the numbers that showed how Wilson thrived in high-scoring games. Finally, we added one more chapter to the pro-Wilson debate earlier this season, when we showed how Wilson is clearly better than Andrew Luck. Now that Wilson has 15 more starts under his belt, we once again feel obligated to hush the critics.
DangeRuss Wilson: The Big Picture
Defenders of Wilson’s excellence first tend to point to his NFL record for wins through three seasons as a pro. No doubt, we sign on to that as a major notch on Wilson’s belt. Sure, Seattle’s defense and running game are excellent, with this season perhaps proving more so than any other. However, Wilson does an excellent job of feeding those respective beasts, as he rarely turns over the football and gives his defense great field position. (No defense got better average adjusted field position this year, according to Football Outsiders writers Jim Armstrong.) When a team has a great defense and strong running game, it’s incredibly important for the starting quarterback to know when to feed the monster and when to take trouble upon himself to win. Quarterbacks like Alex Smith can only do the latter well. Quarterbacks like Wilson can both well, but this one just doesn’t seem to get due credit despite his second consecutive Super Bowl.
Wilson does both well because his passing efficiency, which is in large part achieved by his scrambling and down-field passing abilities. And he’s done this with below-average pass blocking and average receiving at best. Check out Wilson’s year-to-year numbers.
- 2012 regular season (11-5 record): 252-of-393 for 3118 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions (100.03 passer rating)
94 rushes and 33 sacks for 286 net ground yards, four touchdowns and three fumbles lost (93.72 Real QB Rating) - 2013 regular season (13-3 record): 257-of-407 for 3357 yards, 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions (101.15 passer rating)
96 rushes and 44 sacks for 267 net ground yards, one touchdown and five fumbles lost (89.26 Real QB Rating) - 2014 regular season (12-4 record): 285-of-452 for 3475 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions (94.96 passer rating)
118 rushes and 42 sacks for 607 net ground yards, six touchdowns and no fumbles lost (94.14 Real QB Rating) - Postseason (6-1 record): 111-of-181 for 1573 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions (96.31 passer rating)
40 rushes and 21 sacks for 101 net ground yards, two touchdowns and one fumble lost (89.10 Real QB Rating) - Overall (42-13 record): 905-of-1433 for 11523 yards, 82 touchdowns and 31 interceptions (98.28 passer rating)
348 rushes and 140 sacks for 1261 net ground yards, 15 touchdowns and nine fumbles lost (93.02 Real QB Rating)
These numbers clearly put Wilson within the range of the league’s elite quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers). So does his 10 fourth-quarter comebacks and 15 game-winning drives in three seasons. So does Seattle’s NFL-record 55 consecutive games with a lead, which is every single Wilson start. So does the former 31-game and current 12-game streak with a fourth-quarter lead. So does Wilson’s 26-1 record in games decided by multiple possessions (the lone loss came in Week 2).
Big-Game Russell: Games Against Winning Teams
Known as Quality Opponents by Cold, Hard Football Facts, we simply recognize them as teams with a winning record. We consider .500 quality teams, but won’t use them for the purpose of this study. Looking only at games against teams with a winning record, we see that Wilson’s play hasn’t dwindled much. That isn’t the case for normal quarterbacks, as they are generally pressed and pressured into making more mistakes. Quarterbacks also normally faced more defensive resistance when facing winning teams. See Wilson’s numbers:
- 2012 regular season (5-1 record): 89-of-153 for 1182 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions (107.80 passer rating)
35 rushes and nine sacks for 117 net ground yards, no touchdowns and one fumble lost (99.35 Real QB Rating) - 2013 regular season (4-3 record): 114-of-194 for 1524 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions (95.81 passer rating)
47 rushes and 18 sacks for 129 net ground yards, no touchdowns and four fumbles lost (83.05 Real QB Rating) - 2014 regular season (5-3 record): 153-of-237 for 1768 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions (101.73 passer rating)
54 rushes and 20 sacks for 264 net ground yards, three touchdowns and no fumbles lost (99.24 Real QB Rating) - Postseason (5-1 record): 96-of-159 for 1305 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions (88.17 passer rating)
33 rushes and 19 sacks for 99 net ground yards, two touchdowns and one fumble lost (83.13 Real QB Rating) - Overall (19-8 record): 452-of-743 for 5779 yards, 46 touchdowns and 13 interceptions (98.53 passer rating)
169 rushes and 66 sacks for 609 net ground yards, five touchdowns and six fumbles lost (91.87 Real QB Rating)
If the previous numbers put Wilson within the range of the elites, these numbers may very well place firmly within that class. In 27 games against teams with a winning record, Wilson nearly owns a 100+ passer rating. His 46:13 TD:INT ratio (which approximately equates to 3.54:1) is merely one notch below Aaron Rodgers’ other-worldly career TD:INT ratio (approximately 3.96:1). This is clearly the most telling sign that Wilson doesn’t back down against the toughest opponents. He’s mature unlike any other quarterback his age.
Three More for 3: The Rest of the Splits
Of course, we wanted to follow up with the rest of our previous study from TABMathletics. We now have the luxury of seeing teams that finished in the Top 6 and Top 12 in Defensive Passer Rating, as well as see Wilson play in four more games in which Seattle allowed 24+ points. We can update these numbers to see how Wilson fared in those key subset splits.
- Passing v. Top 12 DPR (17-6 record): 370-of-613 for 4805 yards, 35 touchdowns and 15 interceptions (93.88 passer rating)
- Passing v. Top 6 DPR (9-4 record): 190-of-327 for 2568 yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions (90.11 passer rating)
- Games with 24+ PA (2-8 record): 195-of-311 for 2270 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions (93.86 passer rating)
59 rushes and 16 sacks for 398 net ground yards, four touchdowns and one fumble lost (95.43 Real QB Rating)
Once again, Wilson seems to be immune to the subsets that normally lead to less efficient quarterback play. This is the type of consistency we see from a truly elite quarterback that has matured over several seasons as an NFL starting quarterback. Perhaps you see a three-year span like this for a quarterback approaching his early 30s, perhaps in his fifth, sixth and seventh seasons. Instead, we see it from Wilson in his first three seasons. It’s time that we acknowledge Wilson as a quarterback on the cusp of the elite level. Perhaps winning the Super Bowl XLIX will be enough to get him on that mountain top.