As already mentioned, the Divisional Round went as planned until the Indianapolis Colts upset the Denver Broncos during the final game of the weekend. According to the TABRankings, this was the most likely upset, as the Colts were the one team that played in Wild Card Weekend to move up to a Super Bowl-worthy level. Did that mean they cracked the top four with the victory?
Our rankings say no. All the Colts did was close the gap on the Broncos, who actually lost some distance from the other three teams with a first-round bye. That is actually the only notable change in this week’s rankings.
The formula for the 2014 TABRankings in the postseason looks like so:
The TABRankings postseason formula:
(Regular Win Pct x 2)+(Postseason Advancement Points)+(Regular Pyth Pct)+(Post Pyth x 0.2)+(Overall Div Pct x 0.5)+(Overall Qual Pct x 0.5)+(Overall 3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(Regular TO Margin x 4)+(Post TO Margin x 5)-(Regular FK Diff x 0.8)-(Post FK Diff)+(Regular Sack Diff x 0.8)+(Post Sack Diff)+(Reg Time Ahead Avg x 1.25)+(Post Time Ahead x 0.1)+(Reg Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Post Time Ahead Big x 0.2)+(Weighted Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Regular Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
Only two parts of this formula stray from our normal process used in the regular season formula. First, the “postseason advancement points” attaches a point value to each team to advances to a certain level. Advancing to Wild Card Weekend earns 25 points. Advancing to the Divisional Round earns 50 points. Advancing to the Conference Championship earns 75 points. Advancing to Super Bowl XLIX earns 100 points. Winning the Super Bowl earns an additional 50 points. Second, the “weighted Real Quarterback Rating” involves putting twice the power into postseason passing numbers, so this will have some extra leg work to do to get the totals.
The 2014 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR from the Divisional Weekend. Check out the opponent adjustment formula below:
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1.4.
With now all that put together, the results from the Divisional Round are available below. Teams who remain in the postseason are highlighted in blue. Each postseason team will have the postseason record separate from regular season record.
The TABRankings top eight:
1
, 2
, 3
, 4
5
, 6
, 7
, 8
True TABRankings — Divisional Round
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Green Bay Packers | 12-4 + 1-0 | 567.26 (1st) | -9.06 (24th) | 558.20 |
| 2 | 1 | New England Patriots | 12-4 + 1-0 | 545.51 (2nd) | 12.46 (14th) | 557.97 |
| 3 | 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 12-4 + 1-0 | 534.09 (3rd) | 15.64 (12th) | 549.73 |
| 4 | 2 | Denver Broncos | 12-4 + 0-1 | 496.52 (4th) | 20.82 (8th) | 517.34 |
| 5 | 5 | Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 + 2-0 | 468.85 (5th) | 6.15 (17th) | 475.00 |
| 6 | 6 | Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 + 1-1 | 449.83 (6th) | -29.89 (31st) | 419.94 |
| 7 | 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 + 1-1 | 420.70 (7th) | -12.26 (25th) | 408.44 |
| 8 | 8 | Arizona Cardinals | 11-5 + 0-1 | 329.28 (11th) | 25.44 (5th) | 354.72 |
| 9 | 9 | Detroit Lions | 11-5 + 0-1 | 348.46 (8th) | 2.98 (19th) | 351.44 |
| 10 | 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10-5-1 + 0-1 | 300.40 (13th) | 43.68 (4th) | 344.08 |
| 11 | 11 | Buffalo Bills | 9-7 | 324.05 (12th) | 16.60 (11th) | 340.65 |
| 12 | 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 11-5 + 0-1 | 338.61 (10th) | -28.29 (30th) | 310.32 |
| 13 | 13 | Carolina Panthers | 7-8-1 + 1-1 | 276.14 (15th) | 20.16 (9th) | 300.49 |
| 14 | 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10-6 | 287.10 (14th) | 11.86 (16th) | 298.96 |
| 15 | 15 | Houston Texans | 9-7 | 342.44 (9th) | -61.67 (32nd) | 280.77 |
| 16 | 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9-7 | 271.14 (16th) | 1.51 (21st) | 272.64 |
| 17 | 17 | San Francisco 49ers | 8-8 | 243.58 (17th) | 12.00 (15th) | 255.58 |
| 18 | 18 | Miami Dolphins | 8-8 | 224.07 (18th) | 22.40 (6th) | 246.47 |
| 19 | 19 | San Diego Chargers | 9-7 | 205.93 (19th) | 21.67 (7th) | 227.60 |
| 20 | 20 | New York Giants | 6-10 | 200.42 (21st) | 1.58 (20th) | 202.00 |
| 21 | 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | 204.24 (20th) | -21.91 (29th) | 189.00 |
| 22 | 22 | Cleveland Browns | 7-9 | 192.35 (22nd) | -18.90 (28th) | 173.45 |
| 23 | 24 | St. Louis Rams | 6-10 | 154.66 (24th) | 18.59 (10th) | 173.25 |
| 24 | 23 | New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 161.18 (23rd) | -0.04 (23rd) | 161.14 |
| 25 | 25 | Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | 148.70 (25th) | -12.63 (26th) | 136.07 |
| 26 | 26 | Chicago Bears | 5-11 | 73.71 (26th) | 48.15 (3rd) | 121.86 |
| 27 | 27 | New York Jets | 4-12 | 21.54 (27th) | 49.08 (2nd) | 70.62 |
| 28 | 28 | Oakland Raiders | 3-13 | -26.49 (31st) | 74.05 (1st) | 47.56 |
| 29 | 30 | Washington Redskins | 4-12 | -5.83 (28th) | 0.91 (22nd) | -4.92 |
| 30 | 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-13 | -19.59 (30th) | 12.99 (13th) | -6.60 |
| 31 | 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-14 | -16.20 (29th) | -16.66 (27th) | -32.86 |
| 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 2-14 | -37.59 (32nd) | 4.13 (18th) | -33.46 |
Looking at the four remaining teams, three of the teams are so closely matched in the rankings that there is no reason to argue which team is currently the best. However, the Colts are a step behind the other three teams. They aren’t significantly far behind, but they certainly should be seen as slight underdogs in the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl, if they can win the former game.