After a rather poor and disappointing Week 6, we went rather easy on it in Week 7. We stuck with the preseason plan for most of the games, which led to only two picks that strayed from the consensus. One of those games was a win (Chiefs over Chargers) and one of those games was a loss (Lions over Saints). The Saints loss was extremely shocking when you put into the context the team’s 13-point lead with four minutes to go. New Orleans allowed an extremely weak touchdown pass, one which honestly shouldn’t even have been a first down. Then, Drew Brees threw an interception on the following drive, which set up Detroit’s go-ahead touchdown pass.
It wasn’t the only confounding loss, though. The Seahawks lost in St. Louis, thanks in large part to two special teams trick plays that worked to perfection and controversial fumble at the end that was awarded to the Rams. It seemed like Richard Sherman recovered the fumble for Seattle, but the referees rewarded the fumble to St. Louis to allow the home team to seal victory with kneel downs. Suddenly, the Seahawks are 3-3, with opponents needing Herculean efforts to topple the defending Super Bowl champions.
All said and done, even with the upset that went away, it was a week that we held our own ground.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(6) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at (2) Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
(7) San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at (1) Denver Broncos (4-1)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(27) New York Jets (1-5) at (10) New England Patriots (4-2)
(9) Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at (29) St. Louis Rams (1-4)
(18) Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at (3) San Diego Chargers (5-1)
(16) New York Giants (3-3) at (11) Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
The Rest (1 point each)
(24) Atlanta Ravens (2-4) at (4) Baltimore Ravens (4-2) **Lock of the Week**
(23) Tennessee Titans (2-4) at (28) Washington Redskins (1-5)
(17) Cleveland Browns (3-2) at (32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)
(26) Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at (15) Buffalo Bills (3-3)
(21) Miami Dolphins (2-3) at (19) Chicago Bears (3-3)
(25) New Orleans Saints (2-3) at (8) Detroit Lions (4-2) **Upset of the Week**
(14) Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at (13) Green Bay Packers (4-2)
(5) Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at (31) Oakland Raiders (0-5)
(20) Houston Texans (3-3) at (22) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)
One could said we had a decent bounce back from the disappointing Week 6. Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 11-4 and 18 points
- Overall record and points: 82-23-1 and 140.5 points (77.83 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-0 this week (19-4 overall… 82.61 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 3-1 this week (23-8 overall… 74.19 win percentage) [includes 3-1 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 5-2 overall (100 ranking points… 71.43 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 7-0 overall (current streak: Jets, Packers, Patriots, Chargers, Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens… best streak: seven weeks)
Now for the competition, which is a battle of TABM v. 24 experts. Experts from a few different publications will compete. One publication that provides a litmus test is Football Outsiders. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN with online predictions and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TABMathletics | 82.5-23.5 | 1 | TABM | 140.5 | |
| 2 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 73.5-32.5 | 2 | Jackson | 124.5 | |
| 3 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 72.5-33.5 | 3 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 123.5 | |
| 3 | Joyner | 72.5-33.5 | 3 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 123.5 | |
| 5 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 71.5-34.5 | 5 | Carter | 121.5 | |
| 5 | Prisco | 71.5-34.5 | 6 | Don Banks, SI | 118.5 | |
| 7 | Banks | 70.5-35.5 | 6 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 118.5 | |
| 7 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 70.5-35.5 | 6 | Jaworski | 118.5 | |
| 9 | Irvin | 69.5-36.5 | 9 | Allen | 117.5 | |
| 10 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 68.5-37.5 | 10 | Football Outsiders | 115.5 | |
| 10 | Shaun O’Hara, NFLN | 68.5-37.5 | 11 | Mariucci | 114.5 | |
| M | Mean Record | 67.4-38.26 | 11 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 114.5 | |
| 12 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 67.5-38.5 | M | Mean Points | 114.18 | |
| 12 | Wickersham | 67.5-38.5 | 13 | O’Hara | 112.5 | |
| 14 | FO | 66.5-39.5 | 13 | Schlereth | 112.5 | |
| 15 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 65.5-40.5 | 13 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 112.5 | |
| 15 | Melissa Stark, NFLN | 65.5-40.5 | 16 | Faulk | 110.5 | |
| 15 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 65.5-40.5 | 17 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 109.5 | |
| 15 | Schefter | 65.5-40.5 | 17 | Sterling Sharpe, NFLN | 109.5 | |
| 19 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 64.5-41.5 | 19 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 108.5 | |
| 20 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 63.5-42.5 | 20 | Ditka | 107.5 | |
| 20 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 63.5-42.5 | 20 | Johnson | 107.5 | |
| 20 | Sapp | 63.5-42.5 | 22 | Stark | 105.5 | |
| 23 | Golic | 62.5-43.5 | 22 | Warner | 105.5 | |
| 24 | Sharpe | 61.5-44.5 | 24 | Hoge | 103.5 | |
| 25 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 59.5-46.5 | 25 | Mortensen | 98.5 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Through seven weeks, I’m still enjoying a major lead, as the best experts (among 129) are currently eight games behind me, according to the awesome people at NFL Pickwatch. I’ll try to maintain that much separation with a strong Week 8. Until then…