NFL 2014 TABRankings: Week 7

If this week’s TABRankings gives us a preview of what’s to come in January, we will see a Week 1 match-up for one of the conference championship games. Contrary to what most originally thought, it doesn’t seem to be the Packers-Seahawks game. Instead, it’s the Colts-Broncos game, as those two teams look far and ahead like the best ones in the NFL.

Both teams just finished a dominant victory over a quality opponent. Denver dismantled San Francisco on Sunday Night Football with a 42-17 win at home, all while giving the stage for Peyton Manning to set a new league record for regular season touchdown passes. Meanwhile, Indianapolis blanked Cincinnati with a 27-0 home victory. Certainly, those were elite performances.

Beyond those two, there is much up to the imagination as to who falls next in line. Some say the Cowboys overrated, while others say they are the NFC’s best team. Our rankings think the Packers the conference’s best, with last week’s front runner Arizona ranking second. However, the Cowboys are third in the conference and sixth overall, so TABR doesn’t really think the team is overrated. Actually, looking deep into these rankings, there isn’t really any one team that the Mainstream Sports Media is overrating. It’s honestly a fair assessment.

Instead, we see one team that is underrated. That’s the Kansas City Chiefs. Perhaps our biggest favorite to regress, the Chiefs have so far played the league’s toughest schedule, and they survived with a 3-3 start. The big boost came from the annual Andy Reid post-bye special, as Kansas City won in San Diego last week. Only the Packers (nine spots) saw a better improvement than the Chiefs (eight spots) this week. Yes, 11-5 will be a stretch for the Chiefs, but they suddenly look like a playoff-quality team that could reach 9-10 wins.

Come next week, we’ll assess the midseason TABR as it compares to our preseason expectations.

The formula for the 2014 TABRankings looks like so:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

The 2014 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR for Week 7.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.5.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 7 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 7