After several big showdowns in Week 5, we see a some shifting atop the TABRankings. Gone from the top spot are the Bengals, leaving the defending AFC champions to take the weekly throne. With the Broncos now on the perch, there should be confidence in Denver that this team could definitely make a return trip to the Super Bowl. However, there is a pretty good chance they don’t even win the division, because the Chargers bolted up to second in the rankings. They own the best raw numbers through the first five weeks, but their wins over the Jaguars and Jets in the past two weeks weighs down their strength of schedule.
Besides those two, the Colts certainly legitimized the notion that their 0-2 start is past them. They defeated the Ravens and shone with their third down defense in the process, allowing Indianapolis to move up to third in the rankings. Besides Andrew Luck’s squad, the other big winners from Week 5 are the Bills. Buffalo didn’t look like a winner for most of Sunday afternoon, but the defense held up to score a major road victory. Both of these teams will play huge divisional games, so perhaps more changes will come soon.
The formula for the 2014 TABRankings looks like so:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
The 2014 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR for Week 5.
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.5.
With now all that put together, the results for Week 5 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!
The TABRankings top eight:
1
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5
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True TABRankings — Week 5
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Denver Broncos | 3-1 | 424.82 (2nd) | 47.96 (2nd) | 472.78 |
| 2 | 6 | San Diego Chargers | 4-1 | 480.18 (1st) | -24.60 (28th) | 455.58 |
| 3 | 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 3-2 | 401.42 (4th) | -14.56 (20th) | 415.98 |
| 4 | 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 3-1 | 361.09 (5th) | 42.32 (3rd) | 403.41 |
| 5 | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3-1 | 407.24 (3rd) | -8.41 (16th) | 398.83 |
| 6 | 4 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-1 | 312.69 (13th) | 78.43 (1st) | 391.12 |
| 7 | 12 | Buffalo Bills | 3-2 | 317.22 (10th) | 36.82 (5th) | 354.04 |
| 8 | 8 | New York Giants | 3-2 | 348.05 (6th) | 4.36 (14th) | 352.41 |
| 9 | 7 | Detroit Lions | 3-2 | 338.93 (8th) | 10.57 (11th) | 349.50 |
| 10 | 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 3-2 | 312.91 (12th) | 35.22 (7th) | 348.13 |
| 11 | 11 | San Francisco 49ers | 3-2 | 295.49 (15th) | 21.70 (8th) | 317.19 |
| 12 | 13 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-1 | 342.30 (7th) | -28.94 (29th) | 313.36 |
| 13 | 18 | Green Bay Packers | 3-2 | 318.70 (9th) | -17.94 (24th) | 300.76 |
| 14 | 9 | Houston Texans | 3-2 | 300.22 (14th) | -15.86 (21st) | 284.36 |
| 15 | 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4-1 | 314.04 (11th) | -46.07 (31st) | 267.97 |
| 16 | 17 | Carolina Panthers | 3-2 | 257.13 (18th) | -2.98 (15th) | 254.15 |
| 17 | 23 | New England Patriots | 3-2 | 278.19 (16th) | -24.33 (27th) | 253.86 |
| 18 | 15 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2-3 | 229.60 (20th) | 13.33 (9th) | 242.93 |
| 19 | 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3-2 | 273.77 (17th) | -49.26 (32nd) | 224.51 |
| 20 | 21 | Miami Dolphins | 2-2 | 230.59 (19th) | -17.72 (23rd) | 212.87 |
| 21 | 20 | Chicago Bears | 2-3 | 169.70 (22nd) | 5.31 (13th) | 194.44 |
| 22 | 14 | Atlanta Falcons | 2-3 | 207.18 (21st) | -13.22 (18th) | 193.96 |
| 23 | 24 | Cleveland Browns | 2-2 | 164.00 (23rd) | -15.95 (22nd) | 148.05 |
| 24 | 25 | New Orleans Saints | 2-3 | 151.29 (24th) | -32.53 (30th) | 127.35 |
| 25 | 28 | Tennessee Titans | 1-4 | 55.58 (27th) | 39.32 (4th) | 94.90 |
| 26 | 22 | Minnesota Vikings | 2-3 | 86.31 (25th) | -13.66 (19th) | 72.65 |
| 27 | 27 | Washington Redskins | 1-4 | 35.93 (28th) | 7.05 (12th) | 42.98 |
| 28 | 26 | St. Louis Rams | 1-3 | 59.41 (26th) | -19.02 (25th) | 40.39 |
| 29 | 29 | New York Jets | 1-4 | 15.96 (30th) | 11.05 (10th) | 27.01 |
| 30 | 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-4 | 26.34 (29th) | -20.26 (26th) | 6.08 |
| 31 | 31 | Oakland Raiders | 0-4 | -45.66 (31st) | -12.02 (17th) | -57.68 |
| 32 | 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0-5 | -101.54 (32nd) | 35.40 (6th) | -66.14 |