Each week, I will make predictions for the upcoming week of football. In the process, I will look at the predictions made by other top entities in the world of NFL analysis. This will show where this website’s analysis holds up against other websites.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that for some side projects, I will choose an upset pick and lock pick for each week. The lock picks will be made in the “elimination pool” format, with the winner only allowed to be used once. The upset picks will be used to collect “ranking points.” These points wil be determined by the difference in the TABRankings. If there’s enough time at season’s end, we’ll compare the power of the upset to other notable experts. For now, though, it’ll just be for personal keep.
Now for the predictions themselves. This week’s predictions will focus much on how the 2014 NFL Season Predictions panned out. I won’t get into the serious match-up breakdowns until about Week 5, pending on how the season predictions look.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(16) Tennessee Titans at (7) Kansas City Chiefs
This may come as a pair of surprises. First, this game features teams with a combined 18-14 record, but it is featured as one of the “Games of the Week.” Second, expectations are low for the Titans, and they are on the road to play at one of the loudest stadiums. Still, the prediction is for the Titans to get the upset, as both “plus-2” games were predicted to be wins for Tennessee.
(8) Indianapolis Colts at (2) Denver Broncos
The Colts are expected to drop in record, according to their EWD. They had some monster wins last year, going 3-2 against the four teams that made the conference championship games. Both losses came to the Patriots. However, the Broncos perform better than any franchise in home openers (40-13-1 record). Take Peyton Manning and the improved defense in this home opener.
(9) San Diego Chargers at (12) Arizona Cardinals
This will be a tough one to predict. Both teams are looking to take the next level. However, the predictions showed we are bigger fans of the Chargers due to their expected defensive regression. On the flip side, the Cardinals already lost Darnell Dockett for the season due to injury. We trust Philip Rivers over Carson Palmer, and the defensive gap has now closed enough for the Chargers win.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(6) New England Patriots at (18) Miami Dolphins
With Tom Brady expected to be a better quarterback, don’t expect the AFC East to have much success against the Patriots. The likes of Ryan Tannehill, E.J. Manuel or Geno Smith won’t be up to snuff. Plus, the Patriots haven’t lost in Week 1 since 2003.
(29) Cleveland Browns at (19) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns just don’t win in Pittsburgh. It won’t happen this time.
(11) Cincinnati Bengals at (23) Baltimore Ravens
Expect a split between these two teams, so this one’s a toss-up. It all depends on regression. The Bengals are expected to decline at home, so the Ravens road victory is a likely candidate. Then again, the Bengals are due for red zone regression, while the Ravens are due for offensive improvement. In the Five Factors, we said it would take a while for offensive regression for the Ravens, and that will show here. However, the defense will do enough to Andy Dalton to eek out an ugly victory in the home opener.
(5) New Orleans Saints at (26) Atlanta Falcons **Upset of the Week**
These two teams historically play close games and tend to split the series. Furthermore, the Saints historically tend to struggle on the road. Atlanta will improve its record, per its EWD. Here’s a nice way to start the comeback trail to competitive football.
(4) Carolina Panthers at (22) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As mentioned in the season predictions, the wild card for the Buccaneers involves offensive line play. The unit will need time to gel before allowing that offense to roll. This isn’t the team you want to face when the offensive line doesn’t have chemistry yet. Yes, the Panthers will face regression with the pass rush, but it’s still a top tier unit. We say these teams will split, with the road teams winning.
The Rest (1 point each)
(15) Green Bay Packers at (1) Seattle Seahawks
We predicted a six-point win for the Seahawks on Twitter. We got the team correct, but not the margin of victory.
(27) Minnesota Vikings at (13) St. Louis Rams
With the Rams losing Sam Bradford for the year, their season is on the brink. New starter Shaun Hill can win — if he has the support of good defense and a good running game. The Vikings aren’t in position yet to consistently put up the defense to shut down or the offense to outgun him. So why not pick the Rams? Because we buy into what Mike Zimmer is selling.
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars at (10) Philadelphia Eagles
Don’t get it wrong. This game is a virtual lock. However, save the Eagles for your winner-based eliminator pool for another day.
(28) Oakland Raiders at (25) New York Jets **Lock of the Week**
Okay, so this might not make much sense, right? Well, the Raiders have the cross-country trip for an early game. They also have a rookie quarterback facing a Rex Ryan defense. Those two factors are enough to make this a virtual lock.
(20) Buffalo Bills at (17) Chicago Bears
We think one team will be in the midst of a playoff hunt come Week 17. Spoiler alert: it’s not the Bills.
(30) Washington Redskins at (32) Houston Texans
Both teams should fare better than their respective nightmares in 2013. We expect the Texans to fare much better, while the Redskins to fare only moderately better. Houston will start the season with a win.
(3) San Francisco 49ers at (14) Dallas Cowboys
This game is getting the “Game of the Week” treatment of FOX, which in honestly understandable. Only the Sunday Night Football game has a lower combined TABR between the two teams. However, the Cowboys finished one spot of making this a GOTW here. We’re taking the 49ers, because they protect the ball well. The Cowboys can’t stop quality offenses unless they force turnovers.
(24) New York Giants at (21) Detroit Lions
This is a “plus-2” game, where we have both teams going 1-1. The Giants don’t seem to be on the same page offensively yet, and they have an interior offensive line that still needs to gain chemistry. We were going to pick the home teams for most of the 3rd-place NFC “plus-2” games anyways, so the match-ups at play just makes this pick a formality.