We’re now at the quarter pole of the season, which means that business if officially starting to pick up. With the numbers solely focused on 2013, we see one final major shift of power. This includes a shocking move of the Saints toppling the Seahawks. Why is this so? New Orleans ranks significantly better than Seattle in the third and fourth down differential. Meanwhile, they hang with the Seahawks in all other areas in these rankings. Do I actually via the eye test that the Saints are better? Not really, but that doesn’t matter here.
The five 3-1 teams are quite interesting. None of them were honestly expected to be here, and some are looking every bit like a 3-1 team. Should we believe that the Colts, Lions and Dolphins are for real? Let’s wait a bit longer, but the rankings suggest this could be the case. Miami might be most likely to keep their trend, given their way to be 3-1 through an early top 10 schedule.
Now to the rankings. Remember, the formula for the 2013 TABRankings looks like so:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 2.25)+(TO Margin x 3)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
Finally, we don’t need to account for the 2012 TABRankings. However, adjustments will still need to be made. This time, it comes from the strength of schedule through four weeks. Remember, the adjustments are made from totals relative to the league average.
The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 4:
(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR
NOTE: The multiple will be determined to be a number X near to the variable that fits the equation:
(1/6) * TABR IQR = Y * Adjustment IQR. For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.3.
With now all that put together, the results for Week 4 are available below. Make sure to check back in the upcoming weeks for the newest installments of the TABRankings . We will be publishing these results weekly!
The TABRankings top eight:
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True TABRankings — Week 4
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Denver Broncos | 4-0 | 623.74 (1st) | -45.42 (31st) | 578.32 |
| 2 | 5 | New Orleans Saints | 4-0 | 533.57 (3rd) | -24.02 (25th) | 509.55 |
| 3 | 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 4-0 | 528.06 (4th) | -21.48 (23rd) | 506.58 |
| 4 | 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4-0 | 548.12 (2nd) | -58.19 (32nd) | 489.93 |
| 5 | 3 | New England Patriots | 4-0 | 493.34 (5th) | -32.05 (30th) | 461.29 |
| 6 | 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 3-1 | 460.68 (6th) | -31.76 (29th) | 428.92 |
| 7 | 13 | Detroit Lions | 3-1 | 400.99 (7th) | -28.33 (28th) | 372.66 |
| 8 | 8 | Miami Dolphins | 3-1 | 335.22 (9th) | 29.49 (6th) | 364.71 |
| 9 | 18 | Tennessee Titans | 3-1 | 387.82 (8th) | -25.01 (26th) | 362.81 |
| 10 | 12 | Carolina Panthers | 1-2 | 302.83 (11th) | -11.52 (19th) | 291.31 |
| 11 | 4 | Chicago Bears | 3-1 | 309.92 (10th) | -20.06 (22nd) | 289.86 |
| 12 | 11 | Houston Texans | 2-2 | 241.16 (15th) | 38.46 (4th) | 279.62 |
| 13 | 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 2-2 | 251.30 (14th) | 24.96 (8th) | 276.26 |
| 14 | 19 | San Diego Chargers | 2-2 | 257.60 (13th) | 9.15 (12th) | 266.75 |
| 15 | 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 2-2 | 273.06 (12th) | -18.45 (21st) | 254.61 |
| 16 | 20 | San Francisco 49ers | 2-2 | 201.89 (16th) | 19.26 (10th) | 221.15 |
| 17 | 23 | Buffalo Bills | 2-2 | 189.33 (19th) | 20.57 (9th) | 209.90 |
| 18 | 28 | Cleveland Browns | 2-2 | 190.52 (18th) | -1.72 (16th) | 188.80 |
| 19 | 21 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1-3 | 131.92 (22nd) | 39.79 (3rd) | 171.71 |
| 20 | 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2-2 | 191.17 (17th) | -22.45 (24th) | 168.72 |
| 21 | 16 | Atlanta Falcons | 1-3 | 120.43 (23rd) | 34.42 (5th) | 154.85 |
| 22 | 17 | New York Jets | 2-2 | 138.80 (21st) | 14.59 (11th) | 153.39 |
| 23 | 15 | Green Bay Packers | 1-2 | 171.26 (20th) | -27.79 (27th) | 143.47 |
| 24 | 24 | Minnesota Vikings | 1-3 | 111.40 (24th) | -5.22 (17th) | 105.18 |
| 25 | 25 | Arizona Cardinals | 2-2 | 99.93 (25th) | 5.06 (14th) | 104.99 |
| 26 | 26 | Oakland Raiders | 1-3 | 71.75 (26th) | 4.89 (15th) | 76.64 |
| 27 | 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-4 | 36.04 (27th) | 26.53 (7th) | 62.57 |
| 28 | 29 | Washington Redskins | 1-3 | 13.04 (28th) | -10.20 (18th) | 2.84 |
| 29 | 22 | St. Louis Rams | 1-3 | 8.80 (29th) | -16.25 (20th) | -7.45 |
| 30 | 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0-4 | -59.02 (30th) | 6.63 (13th) | -52.39 |
| 31 | 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0-4 | -120.30 (31st) | 52.24 (2nd) | -68.06 |
| 32 | 30 | New York Giants | 0-4 | -148.60 (32nd) | 62.69 (1st) | -85.91 |