Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.
Today, the study focuses on the starting experience for each Super Bowl starting quarterback as it relates to both the regular season and postseason. The table below examines each Super Bowl quarterback and his playoff record entering that postseason. The quarterback’s regular season starts entering that postseason are in parentheses.
Table 6: Starting Quarterback Experience
| SB | Winner | Quarterback | W-L (GS) | SB | Loser | Quarterback | W-L (GS) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I | 66 Packers | Bart Starr | 4-1 (112) | I | 66 Chiefs | Len Dawson | 1-0 (69) | |
| II | 67 Packers | Bart Starr | 6-1 (124) | II | 67 Raiders | Daryle Lamonica | 0-0 (18) | |
| III | 68 Jets | Joe Namath | 0-0 (51) | III | 68 Colts | Earl Morrall | 0-0 (78) | |
| IV | 69 Chiefs | Len Dawson | 2-2 (103) | IV | 69 Vikings | Joe Kapp | 0-1 (38) | |
| V | 70 Colts | Johnny Unitas | 2-1 (172) | V | 70 Cowboys | Craig Morton | 0-1 (29) | |
| VI | 71 Cowboys | Roger Staubach | 0-0 (14) | VI | 71 Dolphins | Bob Griese | 0-1 (59) | |
| VII | 72 Dolphins | Bob Griese | 2-2 (64) | VII | 72 Redskins | Billy Kilmer | 0-1 (63) | |
| VIII | 73 Dolphins | Bob Griese | 3-2 (77) | VIII | 73 Vikings | Fran Tarkenton | 0-0 (174) | |
| IX | 74 Steelers | Terry Bradshaw | 1-2 (51) | IX | 74 Vikings | Fran Tarkenton | 2-1 (187) | |
| X | 75 Steelers | Terry Bradshaw | 4-2 (65) | X | 75 Cowboys | Roger Staubach | 4-2 (55) | |
| XI | 76 Raiders | Ken Stabler | 3-3 (51) | XI | 76 Vikings | Fran Tarkenton | 4-3 (214) | |
| XII | 77 Cowboys | Roger Staubach | 6-4 (73) | XII | 77 Broncos | Craig Morton | 3-2 (95) | |
| XIII | 78 Steelers | Terry Bradshaw | 8-4 (103) | XIII | 78 Cowboys | Roger Staubach | 9-4 (88) | |
| XIV | 79 Steelers | Terry Bradshaw | 11-4 (119) | XIV | 79 Rams | Vince Ferragamo | 0-0 (5) | |
| XV | 80 Raiders | Jim Plunkett | 0-0 (98) | XV | 80 Eagles | Ron Jaworski | 2-2 (65) | |
| XVI | 81 49ers | Joe Montana | 0-0 (24) | XVI | 81 Bengals | Ken Anderson | 0-2 (129) | |
| XVII | 82 Redskins | Joe Theismann | 0-0 (81) | XVII | 82 Dolphins | David Woodley | 0-1 (35) | |
| XVIII | 83 Raiders | Jim Plunkett | 5-1 (127) | XVIII | 83 Redskins | Joe Theismann | 4-0 (97) | |
| XIX | 84 49ers | Joe Montana | 4-1 (64) | XIX | 84 Dolphins | Dan Marino | 0-1 (25) | |
| XX | 85 Bears | Jim McMahon | 0-0 (40) | XX | 85 Patriots | Tony Eason | 0-1 (27) | |
| XXI | 86 Giants | Phil Simms | 2-2 (82) | XXI | 86 Broncos | John Elway | 0-1 (56) | |
| XXII | 87 Redskins | Doug Williams | 1-3 (69) | XXII | 87 Broncos | John Elway | 2-2 (68) | |
| XXIII | 88 49ers | Joe Montana | 7-4 (111) | XXIII | 88 Bengals | Boomer Esiason | 0-0 (62) | |
| XXIV | 89 49ers | Joe Montana | 10-4 (124) | XXIV | 89 Broncos | John Elway | 4-3 (98) | |
| XXV | 90 Giants | Jeff Hostetler | 0-0 (4) | XXV | 90 Bills | Jim Kelly | 1-2 (71) | |
| XXVI | 91 Redskins | Mark Rypien | 0-0 (46) | XXVI | 91 Bills | Jim Kelly | 3-3 (86) | |
| XXVII | 92 Cowboys | Troy Aikman | 0-0 (54) | XXVII | 92 Bills | Jim Kelly | 5-4 (102) | |
| XXVIII | 93 Cowboys | Troy Aikman | 3-0 (68) | XXVIII | 93 Bills | Jim Kelly | 6-5 (118) | |
| XXIX | 94 49ers | Steve Young | 2-2 (87) | XXIX | 94 Chargers | Stan Humphries | 1-1 (45) | |
| XXX | 95 Cowboys | Troy Aikman | 7-1 (98) | XXX | 95 Steelers | Neil O’Donnell | 1-3 (61) | |
| XXXI | 96 Packers | Brett Favre | 4-3 (77) | XXXI | 96 Patriots | Drew Bledsoe | 0-1 (59) | |
| XXXII | 97 Broncos | John Elway | 7-7 (219) | XXXII | 97 Packers | Brett Favre | 7-3 (93) | |
| XXXIII | 98 Broncos | John Elway | 11-7 (231) | XXXIII | 98 Falcons | Chris Chandler | 0-0 (98) | |
| XXXIV | 99 Rams | Kurt Warner | 0-0 (16) | XXXIV | 99 Titans | Steve McNair | 0-0 (49) | |
| XXXV | 00 Ravens | Trent Dilfer | 1-1 (84) | XXXV | 00 Giants | Kerry Collins | 1-1 (72) | |
| XXXVI | 01 Patriots | Tom Brady | 0-0 (14) | XXXVI | 01 Rams | Kurt Warner | 3-1 (43) | |
| XXXVII | 02 Buccaneers | Brad Johnson | 1-3 (79) | XXXVII | 02 Raiders | Rich Gannon | 2-2 (122) | |
| XXXVIII | 03 Patriots | Tom Brady | 3-0 (46) | XXXVIII | 03 Panthers | Jake Delhomme | 0-0 (17) | |
| XXXIX | 04 Patriots | Tom Brady | 6-0 (62) | XXXIX | 04 Eagles | Donovan McNabb | 5-4 (79) | |
| XL | 05 Steelers | Ben Roethlisberger | 1-1 (25) | XL | 05 Seahawks | Matt Hasselbeck | 0-2 (68) | |
| XLI | 06 Colts | Peyton Manning | 3-6 (144) | XLI | 06 Bears | Rex Grossman | 0-1 (23) | |
| XLII | 07 Giants | Eli Manning | 0-2 (55) | XLII | 07 Patriots | Tom Brady | 12-2 (110) | |
| XLIII | 08 Steelers | Ben Roethlisberger | 5-2 (71) | XLIII | 08 Cardinals | Kurt Warner | 5-2 (101) | |
| XLIV | 09 Saints | Drew Brees | 1-2 (121) | XLIV | 09 Colts | Peyton Manning | 7-8 (192) | |
| XLV | 10 Packers | Aaron Rogders | 0-1 (47) | XLV | 10 Steelers | Ben Roethlisberger | 8-2 (98) | |
| XLVI | 11 Giants | Eli Manning | 4-3 (119) | XLVI | 11 Patriots | Tom Brady | 14-5 (159) | |
| XLVII | 12 Ravens | Joe Flacco | 5-4 (80) | XLVII | 12 49ers | Colin Kaepernick | 0-0 (7) | |
| XLVIII | 13 Seahawks | Russell Wilson | 1-1 (32) | XLVIII | 13 Broncos | Peyton Manning | 9-11 (240) | |
| XLIX | 14 Patriots | Tom Brady | 18-8 (207) | XLIX | 14 Seahawks | Russell Wilson | 4-1 (48) |
Red flag: Quarterback lost multiple previous playoff starts without a win
Amber flag: Quarterback lost sole previous playoff start AND made fewer than 40 regular season starts
This factor seems to truly show how important the quarterback’s role is in a playoff run. The reason why we used a 40-start cutoff for an amber flag is because a quarterback generally needs about 40 starts before it’s fair to assess his capabilities as an effective starter. We think a sufficiently experienced quarterback can overcome one previous playoff setback to make a playoff run. Meanwhile, note that Eli Manning is the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback to earn his team a flag.
Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:
- Four red flags: 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants
- One red flag, two amber flags: 2012 Ravens
- One red flag, one amber flag: 2001 Patriots, 2006 Colts
- One red flag: 1981 49ers, 1988 49ers, 1993 Cowboys, 1999 Rams, 2010 Packers
- Two amber flags: 2009 Saints
- One amber flag: 1967 Packers, 1969 Chiefs, 1979 Steelers, 1995 Cowboys, 1997 Broncos, 2000 Ravens, 2005 Steelers
Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:
- Two red flags: 2008 Cardinals
- One red flag, one amber flag: 1979 Rams, 1981 Bengals, 1988 Bengals, 1996 Patriots
- One red flag: 1980 Eagles, 1998 Falcons, 2002 Raiders, 2005 Seahawks
- Two amber flags: 1970 Cowboys, 1985 Patriots, 1986 Broncos
- One amber flag: 1969 Vikings, 1971 Dolphins, 1972 Redskins, 1982 Dolphins, 1984 Dolphins, 1987 Broncos, 1989 Broncos, 1992 Bills, 2000 Giants, 2003 Panthers, 2004 Eagles, 2006 Bears, 2009 Colts, 2012 49ers
Through six factors, only 26 red flags (4.33 per factor) were given to these Super Bowl teams. In total, 19 Super Bowl teams (including 10 winners and nine losers) own at least one red flag nearly half way through this study.
Up next: Success Against Non-Quality Opponents