WEEK 1: LOOKING GREAT TO START THE SEASON
This week’s predictions focus on how the 2016 NFL Season Predictions panned out, something which we will do until the match-ups for Week 5. Until the sample size from 2016 is sufficient, we need the original predictions to carry us at least until the TABRankings give full weight to the 2016 numbers. Note that the week-to-week analysis will progressively matter more until four weeks are in the books.
Through one week, it looks like the original predictions hold up well. A 13-3 record for the week could’ve been better, if not for game-sealing missed field goal by Carolina’s Graham Gano (from 50 yards) and Arizona’s Chandler Catanzaro (from 47 yards). The third loss featured the Colts blowing a last-minute lead against the Lions, but this came after Detroit blew a 21-3 lead. This loss doesn’t sting nearly as much as the other two, which ended up costing us six points that likely would’ve significantly set the tone for the field of experts.
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Games of the Week (3 points each)
(1) Carolina Panthers at (2) Denver Broncos
(7) Cincinnati Bengals at (13) New York Jets
(4) New England Patriots at (5) Arizona Cardinals
(8) Pittsburgh Steelers at (12) Washington Redskins
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(24) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (23) Atlanta Falcons
(25) San Diego Chargers at (3) Kansas City Chiefs
(20) New York Giants at (29) Dallas Cowboys
(15) Los Angeles Rams at (28) San Francisco 49ers **Upset of the Week**
The Rest (1 point each)
(10) Minnesota Vikings at (32) Tennessee Titans
(30) Cleveland Browns at (22) Philadelphia Eagles
(16) Oakland Raiders at (18) New Orleans Saints
(14) Buffalo Bills at (26) Baltimore Ravens
(21) Chicago Bears at (11) Houston Texans
(9) Green Bay Packers at (31) Jacksonville Jaguars
(27) Miami Dolphins at (6) Seattle Seahawks **Lock of the Week**
(17) Detroit Lions at (19) Indianapolis Colts
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Results: Record and Points
Week 1: 13-3 and 21 points (out of 28 possible points)
Season: 13-3 and 21 points (81.25 win and 75 point percentage)
GotW: 2-2 this week (2-2 overall… 50 win percentage)
Divisional: 4-0 this week (4-0 overall… 100 win percentage) [includes 0-0 in GOTW]
Upsets: 1-0 overall (13 ranking points)
Locks: 1-0 overall (current streak: Seahawks)
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Week 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 13-3 | 1 | A. Dobrowolski | 21 | |
| 1 | Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT | 13-3 | 2 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 19 | |
| 3 | Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF | 12-4 | 2 | M. Middlehurst-Schwartz | 19 | |
| 3 | Lorenzo Reyes, USAT | 12-4 | 2 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 19 | |
| 5 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 11-5 | 2 | L. Reyes | 18 | |
| 5 | Neil Hornsby, PFF | 11-5 | 6 | M. Hoge | 18 | |
| 5 | V. Iyer | 11-5 | 6 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 18 | |
| 5 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 11-5 | 6 | Gordon McGuinness, PFF | 18 | |
| 5 | G. McGuinness | 11-5 | 6 | J. Ratcliffe | 18 | |
| 5 | P. Prisco | 11-5 | 6 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 18 | |
| 5 | K. Warner | 11-5 | 11 | N. Hornsby | 17 | |
| M | Mean Record | 10.1-5.9 | 12 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 16 | |
| 12 | Matt Bowen, ESPN | 10-6 | 12 | Football Outsiders | 16 | |
| 12 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 10-6 | 12 | S. Mariucci | 16 | |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | 10-6 | 12 | Kevin Seifert, ESPN | 16 | |
| 12 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 10-6 | 12 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 16 | |
| 12 | K. Joyner | 10-6 | M | Mean Points | 15.87 | |
| 12 | Steve Palazzolo, PFF | 10-6 | 17 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 15 | |
| 12 | Tom Pelissero, USAT | 10-6 | 17 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 15 | |
| 12 | K. Seifert | 10-6 | 17 | Nathan Jahnke, PFF | 15 | |
| 20 | J. Bell | 9-7 | 17 | S. Palazzolo | 15 | |
| 20 | Nate Davis, USAT | 9-7 | 21 | M. Bowen | 14 | |
| 20 | M. Faulk | 9-7 | 21 | A. Caplan | 14 | |
| 20 | FB Outsiders | 9-7 | 21 | M. Golic | 14 | |
| 20 | Dan Graziano, ESPN | 9-7 | 21 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 14 | |
| 20 | N. Jahnke | 9-7 | 21 | Sam Monson, PFF | 14 | |
| 20 | R. Jaworski | 9-7 | 21 | T. Pelissero | 14 | |
| 20 | S. Wickersham | 9-7 | 27 | N. Davis | 13 | |
| 28 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 8-8 | 27 | M. Irvin | 13 | |
| 28 | S. Monson | 8-8 | 29 | D. Graziano | 12 | |
| 28 | Mike Renner, PFF | 8-8 | 30 | M. Renner | 10 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)
That’s right. TABMathletics stands in first place of 30 competitors through the league’s first week despite the two GotW losses. It certainly helped that virtually everybody else also picked the Cardinals to beat the Patriots. Heading into Week 2, there is virtually no reason to deviate from the original predictions. Given how close Week 1’s games were (re: 11 one-possession games), no team looks significantly better or worse than expected. We’ll see if the original predictions hold strong again in Week 2.
4 comments
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Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.
Author
Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!
Thanks! Really enjoy your work!
Author
HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!