After a red hot start through five weeks, one which saw us have a better winning percentage than every team in the NFL, we have fallen down a notch. Granted, it’s a still a strong showing we put up. Yet another week with double-digit wins and yet another week picking among the best has us still feeling good about our place in the Pick’em competition.
Now to the predictions from Week 8.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(7) San Diego Chargers (5-2) at (1) Denver Broncos (5-1)
(3) Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at (12) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1)
(8) Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at (5) Arizona Cardinals (5-1)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(15) Buffalo Bills (4-3) at (29) New York Jets (1-6)
(21) Houston Texans (3-4) at (23) Tennessee Titans (2-5)
(28) Washington Redskins (2-5) at (6) Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
The Rest (1 point each)
(9) Detroit Lions (5-2) at (25) Atlanta Falcons (2-5) **Upset of the Week**
(27) Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at (32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)
(22) Chicago Bears (3-4) at (11) New England Patriots (5-2)
(14) Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at (17) Carolina Panthers (3-3-1)
(16) Miami Dolphins (3-3) at (30) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)
(26) St. Louis Rams (2-4) at (10) Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
(2) Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at (19) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
(31) Oakland Raiders (0-6) at (20) Cleveland Browns (3-3) **Lock of the Week**
(4) Green Bay Packers (5-2) at (24) New Orleans Saints (2-4)
It looks like the went with the wrong upset special. The Steelers and Saints have a better winning pedigree than their TABRankings would suggest, so picking them at home for the upset would’ve been good choices. Instead, we went with the Falcons, who had just an epic collapse. We’ll discuss more about that tomorrow. Then again, perhaps we should’ve been more aggressive and pick all three. That’s something to take in mind for next week. In the meantime, check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 10-5 and 16 points
- Overall record and points: 92-28-1 and 156.5 points (76.45 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-1 this week (21-5 overall… 80.77 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 3-2 this week (26-10 overall… 72.22 win percentage) [includes 4-2 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 5-3 overall (100 ranking points… 62.5 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 8-0 overall (current streak: Jets, Packers, Patriots, Chargers, Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens and Browns… best streak: eight weeks)
Now for the competition, which is a battle of TABM v. 24 experts. Experts from a few different publications will compete. One publication that provides a litmus test is Football Outsiders. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN with online predictions and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TABMathletics | 92.5-28.5 | 1 | TABM | 156.5 | |
| 2 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 84.5-36.5 | 2 | Joyner | 143.5 | |
| 3 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 82.5-38.5 | 3 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 139.5 | |
| 4 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 81.5-39.5 | 4 | Carter | 136.5 | |
| 4 | Prisco | 81.5-39.5 | 4 | Jackson | 136.5 | |
| 6 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 80.5-40.5 | 6 | Don Banks, SI | 133.5 | |
| 7 | Banks | 79.5-41.5 | 6 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 133.5 | |
| 7 | Irvin | 79.5-41.5 | 8 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 131.5 | |
| 9 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 78.5-42.5 | 9 | Allen | 130.5 | |
| 10 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 77.5-43.5 | 10 | Jaworski | 129.5 | |
| 10 | Schefter | 77.5-43.5 | 11 | Mariucci | 128.5 | |
| 10 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 77.5-43.5 | M | Mean Points | 127.98 | |
| M | Mean Record | 76.86-44.14 | 12 | Football Outsiders | 127.5 | |
| 13 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 75.5-45.5 | 12 | Wickersham | 127.5 | |
| 13 | Shaun O’Hara, NFLN | 75.5-45.5 | 14 | Faulk | 125.5 | |
| 13 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 75.5-45.5 | 15 | Schlereth | 123.5 | |
| 13 | Melissa Stark, NFLN | 75.5-45.5 | 16 | O’Hara | 122.5 | |
| 17 | FO | 74.5-46.5 | 16 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 122.5 | |
| 17 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 74.5-46.5 | 18 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 121.5 | |
| 19 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 73.5-47.5 | 18 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 121.5 | |
| 20 | Ditka | 72.5-48.5 | 18 | Stark | 121.5 | |
| 20 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 72.5-48.5 | 21 | Johnson | 120.5 | |
| 20 | Sapp | 72.5-48.5 | 21 | Hoge | 120.5 | |
| 23 | Golic | 71.5-49.5 | 23 | Sterling Sharpe, NFLN | 119.5 | |
| 24 | Sharpe | 68.5-52.5 | 24 | Warner | 117.5 | |
| 25 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 66.5-54.5 | 25 | Mortensen | 108.5 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Through eight weeks, I’m still enjoying a major lead, as the best experts (among 129) are currently seven games behind me, according to the awesome people at NFL Pickwatch. I’ll try to build upon that lead with a strong Week 9. Until then…