In certain ways, Week 17 can be a different beast than the rest of the regular season. Some teams rest their starters in order to remain healthy for the postseason, while other playoff teams look to use the week to get back into rhythms. Some teams figuratively pack up their bags, while others are motivated to go all-out for just one more week. This can make for some unexpected results.
We flirted with insanity for a while in Week 17. During the 1pm EST games, the Kansas City Chiefs at one point were projected to get the second AFC wild card spot. They were fourth in the pecking order for that spot. Luckily, Houston and Baltimore overcame their respective deficits at home to divisional opponents with a losing record. During the 4pm EST games, the NFC West nearly threw everybody for a loop, but Seattle and San Francisco eventually held serve at home to establish playoff match-ups most were expecting.
Now to the predictions for Week 17.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(10) Buffalo Bills (8-7) at (1) New England Patriots (12-3)
(8) Detroit Lions (11-4) at (3) Green Bay Packers (11-4)
(9) Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) at (15) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(21) Cleveland Browns (7-8) at (14) Baltimore Ravens (9-6)
(7) Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at (29) Washington Redskins (4-11)
(5) Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at (32) Tennessee Titans (2-13)
(24) New Orleans Saints (6-9) at (31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13)
(13) Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at (20) New York Giants (6-9)
(30) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at (11) Houston Texans (8-7)
(17) San Diego Chargers (9-6) at (16) Kansas City Chiefs (8-7)
(28) New York Jets (3-12) at (12) Miami Dolphins (8-7)
(26) Chicago Bears (5-10) at (25) Minnesota Vikings (6-9)
(27) Oakland Raiders (3-12) at (2) Denver Broncos (11-4)
(6) Arizona Cardinals (11-4) at (19) San Francisco 49ers (7-8)
(23) St. Louis Rams (6-9) at (4) Seattle Seahawks (11-4)
(22) Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at (18) Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
All said, we navigated the waters fairly well. We misjudged New England’s intentions, as the Patriots actually sat key starters in the second half. Credit Buffalo for grabbing the early lead to make that decision easier. Meanwhile, we can’t understate the disappointment of San Diego and Atlanta combining for a mere 10 points combined in their respective “win-and-in” games.
Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 12-4 and 26 points
- Overall record and points: 187-68-1 and 331.5 points (73.24 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-1 this week (42-14 overall… 75 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 12-4 this week (72-24 overall… 75 win percentage) [includes 12-5 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 9-7 overall (176 ranking points… 56.25 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 15-1 overall (current streak: Eagles, Colts, Lions, Ravens and Packers… best streak: 10 weeks)
Now for the competition, which just became a battle of TABM v. 21 experts. Experts from a few different publications will compete. We use Football Outsiders as one of our top competitors. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN with online predictions and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TABMathletics | 187.5-68.5 | 1 | TABM | 331.5 | |
| 2 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 179.5-76.5 | 2 | Carter | 313.5 | |
| 3 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 177.5-78.5 | 3 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 308.5 | |
| 4 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 176.5-79.5 | 4 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 307.5 | |
| 4 | Joyner | 176.5-79.5 | 5 | Jackson | 306.5 | |
| 6 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 174.5-81.5 | 6 | Jaworski | 304.5 | |
| 6 | Prisco | 174.5-81.5 | 7 | Irvin | 303.5 | |
| 8 | Don Banks, SI | 171.5-84.5 | 8 | Banks | 301.5 | |
| 8 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 171.5-84.5 | 9 | Mariucci | 300.5 | |
| 8 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 171.5-84.5 | 10 | Wickersham | 296.5 | |
| 11 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 168.5-87.5 | M | Mean Points | 292.18 | |
| M | Mean Record | 168.32-87.68 | 11 | Faulk | 289.5 | |
| 12 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 166.5-89.5 | 12 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 286.5 | |
| 13 | Schefter | 165.5-90.5 | 13 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 285.5 | |
| 14 | Schlereth | 164.5-91.5 | 14 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 284.5 | |
| 14 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 164.5-91.5 | 15 | Allen | 282.5 | |
| 16 | Football Outsiders | 162.5-93.5 | 16 | FO | 281.5 | |
| 16 | Johnson | 162.5-93.5 | 17 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 278.5 | |
| 18 | Golic | 160.5-95.5 | 18 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 277.5 | |
| 19 | Hoge | 159.5-96.5 | 19 | Warner | 276.5 | |
| 20 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 157.5-98.5 | 20 | Mortensen | 271.5 | |
| 21 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 155.5-100.5 | 21 | Sapp | 270.5 | |
| 22 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 154.5-101.5 | 22 | Ditka | 269.5 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 22 competitors).
Overall, Cris Carter leads the rest of the experts (among 135) but trail TABMathletics by eight games, according to the awesome people at NFL Pickwatch. Therefore, we officially secured the regular season NFL Pick’em championship for the second consecutive year. We definitely won with more ease this year. Last year, we defeated Ron Jaworski by five games and defeated Don Banks by seven points. This year, we topped Carter by eight games and 18 points. Also, we finished eight games better while the mean improvement was just under six games. We also finished with 25.5 more points while the mean improvement was 16.3 points. (To note, this year’s regular season Pick’em provided 447 possible points, while last year’s regular season Pick’em provided 433 possible points.Therefore, we improved our points percentage from 70.67 to 74.16 this year.) It’s safe to say we predicted better this year on a week-to-week basis.
Our business remains to be finished, though, as the postseason will provide 11 more games and 78 more points at stake. If we can hold our own with the Four Postseason Factors, then we will be the overall champion once again. We gained three games and 18 points of separation last year, but that can’t be expected again. As long as we don’t have reverse fortunes, we’ll be just fine.
Stay tuned to TABMathletics for our Four Postseason Factors analysis. Until then…