After two weeks (and two days) of NFL regular season coverage here at TABMathletics, we know a few things. First, my season predictions are working out pretty awesome so far. Second, at this point, the first two games of the season should have no more than a 50 percent weight on the big picture for 2013. Finally, it looks my theory on Alex Smith could not be put to test Thursday night, thanks to a 2012-esque performance by the Philadelphia Eagles.
That makes me 0-1 to start this week, but we’ll going to stick with what’s been working. At this point, you take away the 2-5 record in crossover games between the AFC and the NFC, and I hold a 24-2 record. For those games, I will generally stick to what I originally predicted for the season. If there’s some considerable reason I feel a need to make the change, then will happen and be noted. More or less, the weights for this prediction will average out the 50 percent from the TABRankings and the 81.25 percent from my Pick’em winning percentage so far. Thus, roughly speaking, I’ll go two-thirds from the preseason predictions and one-third from my weekly game-to-game analysis. I honestly don’t expect much changes from before the season.
Remember, using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, as well as the challenge of predicting each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Next week, the season predictions will be phased out a bit more, depending on what happens for teams here in Week 3.
Games of the Week (3 points)
(4) Houston Texans (2-0) at (5) Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Baltimore will play its second “Plus-2” game. As correctly picked, the Ravens lost in Denver for the NFL season opener. For the season, I picked Baltimore to split the “Plus-2” games. Although Baltimore doesn’t look particularly well through two weeks, the Texans need to scrape by to get wins against San Diego and Tennessee.
(7) Green Bay Packers (1-1) at (12) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
I don’t like Green Bay’s chances against balanced teams that can run, pass and defend. Nevertheless, I picked them to win in San Francisco in Week 1 and learned the hard way. Luckily for me, I saw this game as a loss during the season predictions. Cincinnati sports one of the best defense, and their pass rush should finally break out (they have only two sacks so far, which speaks to the regression than I predicted). Also, Green Bay struggles to make comebacks. Aaron Rodgers have only five fourth-quarter comebacks, four of which came in the NFC North and one of which came on a Saints missed field goal last year. Still, the media thinks he’s not being appreciated enough. How’s this for a bold prediction: For the first time in 44 regular season games, Aaron Rodgers will throw multiple interceptions, and this will lead to the team’s first time in 38 regular season games in which they have at least three turnovers (fulfilling another one of the regression points made during my season preview).
(10) Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at (11) Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Boy, this could be a statement game for the Dolphins. As expected, they got the early road wins to start 2-0. However, I didn’t buy this as much of note, primarily because now wasn’t the year. Why? Because I thought it would be just too tough to navigate the NFC South and AFC North. In fact, the predictions considered a winless record for Miami in their cross conference games. In fact, in my weekly Stat Pack podcast on Cold, Hard Football Facts, I said that I would buy the Dolphins if they could get this victory. Let them prove me wrong.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(27) Buffalo Bills (1-1) at (25) New York Jets (1-1)
In the season predictions, I chose the Jets to finish equal with the Bills, but have the higher spot in the AFC East due to a better divisional record. I envisioned the split, but also envisioned the Jets to stay ahead of the 8-ball. Buffalo looks more appealing to the eye right now, but they don’t have anything more than a win that was stolen away from Carolina. There’s no need to micromanage and makes any changes for now. After all, it’s the first time Buffalo plays on the road this year.
(29) Oakland Raiders (1-1) at (1) Denver Broncos (2-0)
Why is this game on Monday Night Football? I expected a Denver sweep, and we’ll get halfway there come Monday.
The Rest (1 point each)
(19) Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at (24) Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Philadelphia’s five turnovers did in the Eagles more than anything else. As mentioned, you turn the ball against a game manager like Alex Smith and expect to come out on top. Not like that, at least. Kansas City to convert turnovers to points, but getting the lead allowed the team to build momentum in the second half to eventually close the game out.
(22) New York Giants (0-2) at (15) Carolina Panthers (0-2)
This was originally a selection for the Giants. However, the Week 2 TABRankings exploited how these 0-2 teams are not equal. Also, if you visit Cold, Hard Football Facts, you can learn of their new “Intelligence Index.” Take away the bold name, and you simply have the yards per point differential. So far, thanks to the Giants’ turnovers, they are horribly low in this indicator so far. As you’ll see in the article, the bottom four teams last year all showed their inefficiency in Week 1 and went a combined 14-50. They are bad bets… to win and/or to cover the spread. Finally, I think this will be one-possession game, and the Panthers are due for some serious regression. Ron Rivera owns a 2-14 record in games decided by one possession. Carolina will eventually turn the corner. Thus, I am switching this pick.
(13) St. Louis Rams (1-1) at (14) Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
I predicted Dallas to win both of its “Plus-2” games, while I predicted the Rams to lose both. This match seems to be pretty darn above average, with neither team really standing out as the superior team. I’m sticking with the original pick, with Dallas being at home.
(31) Cleveland Browns (0-2) at (21) Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
This game was the one I originally pointed out as Minnesota’s victory against the AFC North. Some probably would think with Cleveland’s maddening trade of Trent Richardson, and the absence of Brandon Weeden at quarterback, that it means the Browns are lock to lose. I’m not sure why people will think it will be any worse than what it was during the limited sample size in 2013.
(25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at (2) New England Patriots (2-0)
I expect the Patriots to lose a game against the NFC South. It certainly won’t happen against the weakest team in the division. Tampa Bay’s defense is playing strong, but poor quarterback play kills a team’s chances to win. Unfortunately, Josh Freeman is still showing no signs of having a strong season under center. His time in Tampa Bay seems to be done.
(20) Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at (9) New Orleans Saints (2-0) **Lock of the Week**
My repetitive history of staying away from the west coast teams (which Arizona will technically be until the next Daylight Savings Time) in the early games leads to this pick being my lock. If I am to take this challenge of the Pick’em seriously, I’m going to save the Patriots and Seahawks for another day. I’m sure another lock will come up for those teams. The cross time zone trip is a huge factor here.
(17) San Diego Chargers (1-1) at (23) Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Speaking of the cross-country trip with an early start time, the Chargers already successfully completed that with a win last week in Philadelphia. Can they do that in consecutive weeks? The odds say no, so I must change this pick. The 2011 49ers achieved this, yet they were a rare West Coast road team. After all, they were the first West Coast team since 1996 to win three road games in the East Coast. The 2012 Broncos achieved this going two time zones over, but they aren’t not a West Coast team. They were like the 49ers in one area — and that involved the 13-3 regular season record. The six PST/MST teams own a 36-89 non-divisional road record for 1pm EST games since 2007, good for only a 28.8 win percent. Dating back to last year, San Diego actually owns a three-game road winning streak, with all three wins in the Eastern Time Zone with at 10am PST start time (Pittsburgh, New York Jets, Philadelphia). We’re big on regression here, so let’s exercise it. Let’s note that the Titans so far are playing much better than my 3-13 prediction.
(16) Detroit Lions (1-1) at (26) Washington Redskins (0-2) **Upset of the Week**
Speaking of road regression, the Lions have NEVER won on the road against Washington Redskins. In fact, a 21-game road losing streak for the Lions against the Redskins — with the last such win coming against the BOSTON REDSKINS IN 1935 — is one of several notable road losing streaks for the Lions franchise. Some of them made NFL history. As much as I’m a champion of regression, it’s only a match-up between two teams (it’s a small sample size), and I’m a sucker to see such a streak live until the perfect time.
(32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at (3) Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
This could’ve been easily the Lock of the Week, but we’ll save the Seahawks for another day.
(18) Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at (6) San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
I largely expected the NFC West to impose their superiority to the AFC South. So far, only the unexpected positive play of the Titans may do something to slightly even out the scales. Colin Kaepernick’s biggest struggles so far in his career came against divisional opponents. He’ll bounce back against the Colts suspect defense.
(8) Chicago Bears (2-0) at (30) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)
Originally, this was a pick for the expected playoff bound Steelers. However, let reality set in for both teams. The Chicago Bears, despite joining a suspect group of 2-0 teams, seems to be regressing more offensively than defensively. That’s a great sign for this team. I figure regression would happen on both sides, but I made the choice the defense would regress more. Meanwhile, let’s note this about the Steelers: they finished with a mediocre record despite playing one of the easiest schedules. I expected this year to be a bounce back, but they only gotten worse. It’s a jarred reality for one of the league’s best franchises, but they 30th through two weeks in the TABRankings. With the clubhouse lead, I don’t need to do anything stupid with my predictions. Thus, I will make my third and final change from the original season predictions. Of the surprising really bad teams, I’ll leave this week picking only one upset.