From year to year, the NFL experiences rapid and dynamic changes. As we explained upon the creation of this website, many of these changes have to do with regression to the mean. Because of this regression, a majority of these changes can actually be predicted. With proper research of the NFL stat books and a keen understanding of the game’s context, you can successfully predict the changes.
The Five Factors feature is a rousing success thus far. We completed the Five Factors for 2013 with a success rate greater than 90 percent. That success rate nearly reached 95 percent when we completed the Five Factors for 2014. This proves that the feature is a necessary read for any season preview. Therefore, we will once again spend eight August days discussing five factors of regression for each team in the NFL. This will help to paint the picture for the 2015 NFL season predictions, which will be made this Saturday.
Today, we look at the NFC East.
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Dallas Cowboys (12-4, NFC East Champions in 2014)
After three years of frustration-filled .500 football for the Cowboys, last year saw everything come together. The offense featured an elite compliment of the pass and run. Quarterback Tony Romo led the league in passer rating, while running back DeMarco Murray led the league in rushing yards. The Cowboys even owned a perfect road record in the regular season, and precedence favored them to make noise in the postseason (six of the first seven post-merger teams to go perfect on the road went to the Super Bowl). Unfortunately, after two controversial postseason games, Dallas saw its season come to an end in Green Bay. Whether or not “Dez caught it,” the Cowboys fell just short in the postseason because of a lacking defense. In comes the controversial signing of Greg Hardy. The franchise hopes he and a young group of defensive linemen brings this unit to a contender’s level. Will the defense get the job done, or will the controversy prevail in Big D?
1. Pass offense: Thanks to Romo, the Cowboys finished with a league best 110.87 Offensive Passer Rating. That was good for an elite-level plus-21.99 Relative Offensive Passer Rating. As mentioned during last year’s analysis of Relative Passer Rating, teams that surpass the ±20-point threshold are almost guaranteed to regress. One factor that will affect regression is strength of schedule. The 2014 Cowboys enjoyed a favorable slate of opponents, playing 11 games against teams with a negative Relative Defensive Passer Rating. This includes four games against the Bottom 4 teams in RDPR. Looking more specifically at NFC East opponents, the Cowboys faced three defenses that struggled to prevent big plays. No team allowed more touchdown passes of 20+ yards than Washington (19), the Eagles (17) or the Giants (15). Eight of Dallas’ co-league-high 17 touchdowns in this subset came against divisional foes. Even if the Cowboys maintain their elite balance without the services of Murray, there will be added pressure on the pass game that affects the unit’s efficiency. Regression projection: Worse Offensive Passer Rating
2. Road play: When a team goes 8-0 on the road in the regular season, it’s entering rarefied territory. Since the merger, the following teams went undefeated on the road: 1972 Dolphins, 1982 ‘Skins, 1984 49ers, 1989 49ers, 1990 49ers, 2001 Rams, 2007 Patriots and 2014 Cowboys. With a Week 2 victory in Philadelphia, the Cowboys will own a 10-game regular reason road winning streak for the third time in franchise history (per Pro Football Reference). However, only one franchise (1988-90 49ers) got past a 12-game streak. Dallas scored 275 points (4th all-time) and allowed 181 points in last year’s road games, which is equivalent to 5.85 Pythagorean Wins. This heavily points to regression. Also of note, Romo owned a 20:2 TD:INT ratio and a 121.84 passer rating in those eight games. That’s an unsustainable level of success. Regression projection: Worse road W-L record
3. Takeaways: No team in the NFL finished with a higher defensive drive turnover rate than Dallas’ 16.8 percent clip. Dallas forced 30 of its 31 turnovers on defense, doing so over 179 defensive drives. The Cowboys’ takeaway rate is more than two standard deviations above the mean rate (12.1 percent). Every team since 1998 has regressed the year after their takeaway rate was that good. That’s in part because defensive play is reactionary to the opposing offenses. Also, turnover rates generally regress to the mean, as shown in our Expected Win Differential study (more on that soon). Specifically for Dallas, though, the defense wasn’t entirety too successful besides the turnovers. Had the Cowboys been creating constant pressure throughout the season, then a high turnover rate would be reflective of their play. This wasn’t the case, though. Regression projection: Fewer takeaways
4. Subset defense: While the Dallas defense came up big with turnovers, it came up well short in key subsets. From the red zone to the first quarter, the Cowboys shriveled up when it mattered most. Addressing the red zone, Dallas allowed 30 touchdowns and 10 field goals in 49 opponent red zone drives (4.92 points per red zone trip). The TD:FG ratio standouts out the most. Addressing the first quarter, the Cowboys allowed a 100.02 Defensive Passer Rating on a 71.29 completion percentage. While the other factors signify decline, this should be one area that the ‘Boys improve. Regression projections: Better red zone touchdown percentage allowed and better first quarter Defensive Passer Rating
5. Expected Win Differential: See the Featured Factor of Regression entitled “Updating the Expected Win Differential for 2015” for more details. In this case, Pythagorean Win Differential plays a big role. The team’s 10.61 PWD simply can’t keep up with the 12-4 record. That should be expected, given the aforementioned analysis of Big D’s road play. Meanwhile, turnovers are expected to slightly regress. While defensive regression will be heavy, that will be mitigated some by offensive fumble luck regression (re: opponents recovered 14 of the 21 Dallas fumbles). All in all, the Cowboys will most likely be dragged down by declining road play. Luckily, Tony Romo and the balanced offense may limit the damage. Regression projection: Worse W-L record
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New York Giants (6-10, 3rd place in 2014)
The expectation for the 2014 Giants was to win the NFC East. And despite an 0-2 start, things started to look up for Big Blue after winning three games in a row. Then came a disastrous Sunday night shutout loss in Philadelphia that ended wide receiver Victor Cruz’s season (knee injury). That not only derailed any momentum for the Giants, but it started a seven-game losing streak that eviscerated any postseason hopes. Quarterback Eli Manning had some growing pains in his first year under a West Coast Offense style of play, but his overall numbers were proficient. The defense was up-and-down against the pass but was completely terrible against the run. And finally, despite the immediate impact of rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham post injury, the hopes of developing a young playoff-level nucleus took a hit when defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul suffered an off-the-field hand injury during the Independence Day holiday. Can New York finally recognize its potential in 2015?
1. Odell Beckham, Jr.: See the Featured Factor of Regression entitled “Making Sense of Antonio Brown’s Record-Setting Receiving Streaks” for more information about some standout streaks for Beckham. After missing the first four games of the season, the rookie wide receiver made an immediately impact in the passing game. Over 12 games, Beckham caught 91 passes for 1305 yards and 12 touchdowns. This includes two active streaks that already rival the all-time greats. Beckham owns a nine-game streak of 5+ receptions for 80+ yards. He also owns a six-game streak of 7+ receptions for 70+ yards. Those last six games were particularly ridiculous, as he tallied 60 receptions for 842 yards and nine touchdowns. This is an incredibly hard rate to retain, simply for the fact that it’s often too hard to get targeted enough to make double-digit receptions each game. However, Beckham could still improve his gross numbers in 2015. Recall that he missed four games last year. Switching the parameters to a per-game basis will make a more accurate projection. Regression projections: Fewer Beckham receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns per game
2. Big-play defense: As good as Beckham was in 2014, he would’ve been better off facing the Giants. No team was more susceptible to giving up the big play. New York allowed 38 pass completions of 25+ yards, trailing only their most heated rival (Philadelphia Eagles) for worst in the league. The G-Men also allowed a league-high 42 rush attempts of 15+ yards. No wonder the Giants allowed 5.97 yards per play, which ranked 28th in the NFL. The wild thing is that this team still managed to tally 47 sacks (for 313 yards). Because of this, one can’t safely assume regression in yards allowed per play. Instead, one must address two separate stats. Regression projections: Fewer yards allowed per pass attempt and fewer yards allowed per rush attempt
3. Team health: The Giants have trouble keeping players healthy on the field. Perhaps more than anything else, this held back the Giants in recent years, especially on defense. It’s become so routine that maybe the scouting department and front office needs to reconsider some things. Anyways, Football Outsiders estimate the G-Men had a league-high 141.3 Adjusted Games Lost in 2013 and a league-high 137.1 Adjusted Games Lost in 2014. Regression just barely happened, which makes us think it’s could be more than random events as to why this is happening. Could it be a penchant to draft injury-prone talent? Could be poor strength training and conditioning? Could it be bad luck compounded with rare recidivism? No matter the case, the injury bug already started to make an impact in 2015. Left tackle Will Beatty tore his pectoral muscle in May. Cruz is still recovering from his knee injury and will miss time. Pierre-Paul’s hand injury will cause him to miss time as well. While regression seems guaranteed, our gut tells us this problem isn’t going away anytime soon. Regression projection: Fewer Adjusted Games Lost
4. First-quarter pass offense: The Giants had a mini grab-bag of other factors that could be featured in this spot. Football Perspective projects that the Giants will be one of most likely teams to regress in fumble luck in 2015. The kick coverage unit most likely won’t mainta of anything. However, the first-quarter pass offense might have the most notable path to regression of all. Per Pro Football Reference, the Giants owned a 114.74 Offensive Passer Rating in the game’s first 15 minutes. Also of note, New York only committed two turnovers in the opening stanza. This didn’t lead to many points, though, as the G-Men totaled only 79 points. Eli Manning’s career first quarter passer rating is just 82.41, so this is likely to regress. That regression could prevent the Giants from moving forward offensively in 2015. Regression projection: Worse first quarter Offensive Passer Rating
5. Expected Win Differential: See the Featured Factor of Regression entitled “Updating the Expected Win Differential for 2015” for more details. New York finished with a favorable plus-1.68 EWD, mostly due to their Pythagorean Win Differential. The team’s plus-1.51 PWD primarily has to do with the team earning all six wins by double digits. On the flip side, the G-Men owned an 0-4 record in one-possession games (which coincidentally was the team’s last four losses of the season). Only the 1968 Houston Oilers owned more double-digit wins among non-winning teams. The franchise went 6-6-2 the following season. There’s a possibility that the unusual rate of double-digit wins skewed the PWD, but let’s air on the side of regression. We’re giving injury regression one more chance to have its say, even with our doubts. Regression projection: Better W-L record
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Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, 2nd place in 2014)
The arrival of Chip Kelly took a little bit of time, but by the end of 2013, his impact was certainly felt across the league. For three quarters of the 2014 season, that impact continued to tear throughout the NFL. The Eagles were 9-3 to start the season and seemingly in position to win the NFC East as long as they took down the Dallas Cowboys one more time. However, after a three-game losing streak featured a loss in that Cowboys game, the Eagles were suddenly without a postseason spot. A 10-6 season suddenly felt empty. Now that it’s Year Three of the Kelly Era, he’s been given free reign to influence roster decisions. Kelly wasted no time in creating controversy with his roster shake-up. In comes quarterback Sam Bradford, running back DeMarco Murray and cornerback Byron Maxwell. Meanwhile, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and running back LeSean McCoy are gone. Will Kelly ruin the Eagles or turn them into a champion? The answer could be determined by year’s end.
1. Return game: Back during the 2013 NFL Preview, we analyzed the regression involving return touchdowns. The 2014 Eagles joined the list of teams included in that study by scoring 11 return touchdowns. Better yet, Philadelphia did it in all different walks: two punt returns, two kick returns, two fumbles, two interceptions and three blocked punts. Despite this, the Eagles only finished with plus-1.63 Net Yards per Point Scored. Take away the return touchdowns (for and against the Eagles), and the NYpPS drops to plus-0.16. Perhaps that’s where Philadelphia will end up in scoring efficiency in 2015. It’s just hard to make up for the 77 points that were scored without tallying a single yard of offense. Regression projection: Worse Net Yards per Point Scored
2. DeMarco Murray: To preface, this part of analysis is different than the rest of the factors in two ways: (1) we address regression from a player that wasn’t with the team last year, and (2) we include the injury factor of a player’s potential regression. Murray rushed for 1845 yards and 13 touchdowns on 392 carries. All figures led the league. Here’s where over-usage becomes an issue. Just Google the “Curse of 370” to for the skinny on over-using running backs. Murray totaled 392 regular season carries, 44 postseason carries, 57 regular season receptions and four postseason receptions. That makes a total of 497 touches! The 2014 season also marks that first time that Murray played all 16 regular season games. After the over-usage, Murray is going to be prone to injuries. Philadelphia can only make this free agent pickup work if Murray bounces back after a down year, because 2015 is not going to come close to 2014’s success. Regression projection: Fewer Murray rush yards
3. Pass defense: As mentioned earlier during the Cowboys analysis, the Eagles had problems preventing big pass plays. Philadelphia ranked second-to-last with 17 touchdown passes allowed of 20+ yards, including six from at least 50 yards. And as mentioned during the Giants analysis, no team allowed more pass completions of 25+ yards than Philadelphia’s 40. This was the “miss” for a hit-or-mass unit in 2014. On the good side, the Eagles allowed a 58.38 completion percentage, third in the NFL. On the bad side, they allowed 13.32 yards per reception, last in the NFL. These factors are set to converge, but how will that impact the unit as a whole? Defensive Passer Rating isn’t a clear target, because touchdowns and interceptions will have its say. Instead, yards allowed per pass attempt is the target of regression. Regression projection: Fewer yards allowed per pass attempt
4. Pass rush: In some ways this Eagles pass defense was much like the Giants’ pass defense. Despite allowing numerous big plays, the pass rush got active. Philadelphia’s 49 sacks ranked in a tie for second (with the Baltimore Ravens) in the NFL last year. Outside linebacker Connor Barwin was particularly effective, racking up a team- and career-high 14.5 sacks. The problem is that while it’s hard to maintain such pass rush success from one year to the next, it’s nearly impossible to do so when the secondary is so leaky. Expect Philly to experience converging factors in the pass defense. Regression projection: Fewer sacks
5. Giveaways: Due to the Chip Kelly chaos, drive-based efficiency is all out of whack for the Eagles. Philadelphia finished second with 203 offensive drives, and the team would’ve finished first if not for the 11 return touchdowns. Meanwhile, the defense was on the field for 212 drives, far and beyond the next-highest teams (Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, with 199 each). And yet somehow, the Eagles finished with the worst offensive turnover drive rate in the league (17.2 percent). Combine a turnover rate with a designed fast-paced team, and the giveaway total will undoubtedly lead the league. Nobody had more than Philly’s 36 giveaways (re: the league average was 23.69). Given the year-to-year turnover regression, we know that the Eagles won’t be quite as giving with the football in 2015. Regression projection: Fewer giveaways
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Washington Redskins (4-12, 4th place in 2014)
After a strong finish to the 2012 regular season with Robert Griffin III under center, everything has been an utter disaster for Washington. Griffin’s knee injury as a rookie was handled terribly. Then, he was more or less rushed back. After that, the franchise lacked a truly supportive hand to his growing pains, something which suddenly showed up once regression came into play. Part of the way that Washington never illustrated its undivided support was the drafting of Kirk Cousins in the same year as Griffin. Whether it was Mike Shanahan or Jay Gruden as head coach, the clashes between coach and quarterback were far too public. Now things take another interesting change, as Cousins is named the starting quarterback for the season (updated 9/10). He brings with him one of the worst relative turnover rates in history, albeit with a relatively small sample size. Can he turn around this team’s fortunes, and can his supporting cast be of significant help?
1. Scoring efficiency: Against our projections for the Five Factors of 2014, Washington looked even worse than 2013 when it comes to scoring efficiency. In 2013, Washington ranked 31st with negative-5.86 Net Yards per Point Scored. The team held a 5915-5665 advantage in yards, but only mustered 4.76 Pythagorean Wins. In 2014, Washington ranked 32nd with negative-6.02 Net Yards per Point Scored. The team once again outgained its opponents last year (5738-5712), but still managed all of 4.62 Pythagorean Wins. Could it be a trend to come? The evidence says “absolutely not.” There mere mitigating factors in 2014. Of note, the team allowed seven return touchdowns but doesn’t score any. That’s a 49-point disadvantage, which drops the NYpPS to negative-4.38. Expect regression to actually happen this time. Regression projection: Better Net Yards per Point Scored
2. Big-play offense: Despite running an offense that often focused on short passing, Washington had one of the most accomplished big-play pass offenses in the league. No team had more than Washington’s 12 pass completions of 50+ yards (per Pro Football Reference). Again, this contradicts what the offense did, at least with Robert Griffin III and Colt McCoy under center. While it is true that Kirk Cousins led a more aggressive downfield offense, and that he completed six of those 12 passes, yards after the catch had a lot to do with this success in the passing game. Football Outsiders claims in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 that Washington averaged 7.0 yards after catch, the best in the NFL for at least the past decade. Note that seven of the 12 aforementioned pass completions were charted as “short” passes. With Cousins under center, Washington will probably be more aggressive, but it will hurt to not have the same YAC production as 2014. Regression projection: Fewer yards per pass attempt
3. Subset offense: With the offense’s big-play ability, perhaps this team could’ve been a lot better if not for its dreadful third down offense. While bad in its own right, Washington’s third down conversion percentage (31.47, 30th) actually undersells how bad this team was in the subset. According to Pro Football Reference, the team averaged only 4.22 yards per play on the down (worst in the NFL). In the air, Washington finished with an ugly 63.06 Offensive Passer Rating (well below the league’s 87.43 passer rating, establishing a negative-24.37 ROPR). The quarterback trio also took 23 sacks on the down (second-most in the NFL, behind the Jacksonville Jaguars). Finally, Washington tallied a league-low three touchdowns, compared to 11 turnovers. Wholesale regression is at hand for this subset, and this in turn will improve the whole offense. Regression projection: More points scored
4. Pass defense: No pass defense did worse than Washington’s in 2014. With a 108.31 Defensive Passer Rating, the 2014 Washington pass defense rivaled some of the worst in NFL history. That negative-19.43 Relative Defense Passer Rating is at least a virtual guarantee to regress. There are few key reasons why. The 35:7 TD:INT ratio will most certainly regress, as such a ratio has never happened before. Also, the yards allowed per attempt should also regress, based in part on the 10 pass completions of 50+ yards allowed. Washington got rid of some of its coverage liabilities (e.g.: Brandon Meriweather) and will probably see some others improve (e.g.: 23-year-old Bashaud Breeland). There’s really nowhere but to go up for this unit, even if the defense is still of the weakest units in the game. Regression projection: Better Defensive Passer Rating
5. Expected Win Differential: See the Featured Factor of Regression entitled “Updating the Expected Win Differential for 2015” for more details. A nice mix between the Pythagorean Win Differential (+0.62) and Turnover Win Impact regression (+1.02) help to confirm what the four factors generally set up. This team will get better in 2015, as they aren’t as bad as a 4-12 team in normalized situations. The points-based regression isn’t much to ride home about, although Washington’s PWD increases to plus-1.61 if you eliminate return touchdowns. The turnover-based regression will likely be a group effort, as both offensive drive and defensive drive turnover rates ranked in the league’s Bottom 5. Obviously the defensive regresson is a safer bet. The only question that remains is exactly how much Washington improves in 2015. Regression projection: Better W-L record