Both home teams (and both number one seeds) won on Sunday to reach Super Bowl 50. However, the TABRankings had one of those teams at the top of the rankings and the other barely making the top eight. Did Denver’s win vault them near the top? Did Carolina gain farther separation from the rest after its dominant win? We answer those questions today.
Note that with this being the postseason, we have to adjust the formula to properly reflect the change of tenor and pace. We also need to reward postseason teams for getting as far as they did. Thus, the formula for the 2015 Postseason TABRankings looks like so:
The TABRankings postseason formula:
(Regular Win Pct x 2)+(Postseason Advancement Points)+(Regular Pyth Pct)+(Post Pyth x 0.2)+(Overall Div Pct x 0.5)+(Overall Qual Pct x 0.5)+(Overall 3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(Regular TO Margin x 4)+(Post TO Margin x 5)-(Regular FK Diff x 0.8)-(Post FK Diff)+(Regular Sack Diff x 0.8)+(Post Sack Diff)+(Reg Time Ahead Avg x 1.25)+(Post Time Ahead x 0.1)+(Reg Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Post Time Ahead Big x 0.2)+(Weighted Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Regular Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
Only two parts of this formula stray from our normal process used in the regular season formula. First, the “postseason advancement points” attaches a point value to each team that advances to a certain level. Advancing to Wild Card Weekend earns 25 points. Advancing to the Divisional Round earns 50 points. Advancing to the Conference Championship earns 75 points. Advancing to Super Bowl XLIX earns 100 points. Winning the Super Bowl earns an additional 50 points. Second, the “weighted Real Quarterback Rating” involves putting twice the power into postseason passing numbers, so this will have some extra leg work to do to get the totals.
The 2015 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR from the conference championships. Check out the opponent adjustment formula below:
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1.1.
With now all that put together, the results from the conference championships are available below. Teams who remain in the postseason are highlighted in blue. Each postseason team will have the postseason record separate from regular season record.
The TABRankings top eight:
1
, 2
, 3
, 4
5
, 6
, 7
, 8
True TABRankings — Conference Championships
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Carolina Panthers | 15-1 + 2-0 | 766.97 (1st) | -37.76 (31st) | 729.21 |
| 2 | 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11-5 + 1-1 | 533.92 (2nd) | 17.73 (13th) | 551.65 |
| 3 | 4 | New England Patriots | 12-4 + 1-1 | 525.10 (3rd) | -7.25 (23rd) | 517.85 |
| 4 | 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 13-3 + 1-1 | 494.40 (4th) | 17.68 (14th) | 512.08 |
| 5 | 7 | Denver Broncos | 12-4 + 2-0 | 465.45 (5th) | 41.17 (5th) | 506.62 |
| 6 | 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 + 1-1 | 430.35 (7th) | 49.61 (1st) | 479.96 |
| 7 | 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12-4 + 0-1 | 453.00 (6th) | 4.85 (19th) | 457.85 |
| 8 | 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 + 1-1 | 402.07 (8th) | 35.68 (8th) | 437.75 |
| 9 | 9 | Green Bay Packers | 10-6 + 1-1 | 381.61 (9th) | 48.75 (2nd) | 430.36 |
| 10 | 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 11-5 + 0-1 | 366.30 (10th) | 17.25 (15th) | 383.55 |
| 11 | 11 | Houston Texans | 9-7 + 0-1 | 297.89 (13th) | 8.09 (18th) | 305.98 |
| 12 | 12 | Washington Redskins | 9-7 + 0-1 | 319.56 (12th) | -24.62 (28th) | 294.92 |
| 13 | 13 | New York Jets | 10-6 | 347.08 (11th) | -64.78 (32nd) | 282.30 |
| 14 | 14 | Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | 258.61 (14th) | 2.60 (20th) | 261.81 |
| 15 | 15 | St. Louis Rams | 7-9 | 218.84 (15th) | 19.59 (12th) | 238.43 |
| 16 | 16 | Oakland Raiders | 7-9 | 196.96 (17th) | 28.09 (11th) | 225.05 |
| 17 | 17 | Detroit Lions | 7-9 | 170.42 (20th) | 34.35 (9th) | 204.77 |
| 18 | 18 | New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 205.96 (16th) | -4.44 (22nd) | 201.52 |
| 19 | 20 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-9 | 173.84 (19th) | -1.96 (21st) | 171.88 |
| 20 | 19 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7-9 | 159.55 (22nd) | 9.94 (17th) | 169.49 |
| 21 | 21 | New York Giants | 6-10 | 177.64 (18th) | -11.39 (24th) | 166.25 |
| 22 | 22 | Chicago Bears | 6-10 | 110.95 (24th) | 48.71 (3rd) | 159.66 |
| 23 | 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 8-8 | 167.80 (21st) | -18.03 (26th) | 149.77 |
| 24 | 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-10 | 135.74 (23rd) | -17.82 (25th) | 117.92 |
| 25 | 26 | San Diego Chargers | 4-12 | 79.09 (27th) | 31.52 (10th) | 110.61 |
| 26 | 25 | Baltimore Ravens | 5-11 | 86.86 (26th) | 16.16 (16th) | 103.02 |
| 27 | 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | 24.53 (29th) | 38.75 (7th) | 63.28 |
| 28 | 28 | Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 88.42 (25th) | -30.45 (29th) | 57.97 |
| 29 | 29 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-12 | 8.38 (30th) | 40.84 (6th) | 49.22 |
| 30 | 30 | Cleveland Browns | 3-13 | -13.12 (31st) | 42.69 (4th) | 29.57 |
| 31 | 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 46.21 (28th) | -32.65 (30th) | 13.56 |
| 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 3-13 | -26.45 (32nd) | -21.43 (27th) | -47.88 |
Mean: 260.50 points; Standard Deviation: 189.92 points
The Panthers own a clear advantage heading into Super Bowl 50, as they own a point total more than one standard deviation greater than Denver’s point total. Carolina could be heading for select company on the all-time charts if a win follows on February 7. Notice that the 2013 Seahawks finished with 738.53 points after winning Super Bowl XLIVII. However, it is important that the rankings formula was tweaked since then, so their point total should be greater when adjusted for recent changes.
Either way, the 2015 Panthers could become comparable to the 2013 Seahawks, who we declared as one of the best Super Bowl champions ever in a Cold, Hard Football Facts post published two years ago. We’ll keep a look for out, as well as Denver’s standings if the upset happens. The Broncos have finally worked their way to a Super Bowl level of efficiency. Maybe they go one step further.