We head into the final regular season week trailing FiveThirtyEight’s Elo by five games and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen. Therefore, we need to use a similar gameplan to what we utilized last week. Note that for Week 16, we first submitted our “first draft” picks to NFL Pickwatch. More or less, these are picks we’d make in the vacuum of that week only, with no season-long considered. Then, we aimed to adjust some of our picks for the sake of improving our standing in the competition. Last week, we actually only ended up amending one pick, which was successful. Depending on how our “first draft” picks are compared to FiveThirtyEight and Mortensen’s, we may have to amend a lot more this week. We may even need a Hail Mary to win the regular season Pick’em competition.
Our gameplan this week only monitor the top two competitors. In the end, we want to have six picks that stray from the FiveThirtyEight Elo model and five picks that stray from Mortensen’s predictions. First, though, let’s show what we have for our first draft:
It ends up we have only two picks that go against the grain (Washington over Dallas, Detroit over Chicago) and only one pick that is split between FiveThirtyEight and Mortensen (New York at Buffalo). It fits perfectly that we picked New York to win, so we can amend some picks needing the same amount of remaining games to catch up to the two.
Unfortunately, we will need to amend three games in total, so we are relying on something like a Hail Mary here. Of the 13 remaining match-ups on the Week 17 slate, there are four that have a five-rank differential or less between the combatants. Looks like we will have to chose three from that group of games. Note that there will be some Games of the Week included, so we’re more or less going for broke here. We could fall well below the mean if we get everything wrong. Then again, it we strike gold, we end up having a regular season three-peat in this Pick’em competition. (And if we break even, there’s still always the postseason to help claim our crown.)
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that any changes from the first draft submitted to NFL Pickwatch will be denoted with the **Amended Pick** distinction. Also note that we will have no Upset of the Week and no Lock of the Week. Given the nature of Week 17 due to last-game shenanigans and intra-divisional match-ups, we don’t think that are any true locks or upsets. We finish 13-3 in locks and 6-10 in upsets.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(8) New York Jets (10-5) at (15) Buffalo Bills (7-8)
We give this about 50-50 odds, so it was tough for us to pick a winner for our first draft. It ended up though that we would’ve more or less been forced to pick the Jets, as this was the only game in which FiveThirtyEight and Chris Mortensen picked a different winner. Because we needed to gain one more game on the former, we would’ve amended to the Jets if we did not directly pick them. Hopefully for our sake, the Jets take care of business to make the postseason, but note the Bills do enough things well to possibly pull off the upset.
(6) Seattle Seahawks (9-6) at (2) Arizona Cardinals (13-2) **Amended Pick**
This was another game we were split about 50-50 on choosing. While the Seahawks suffered a disappointing letdown last week, they’ve been rolling otherwise since their 39-32 loss at home to Arizona. This team is dangerous in every aspect of the game, even to the point of possibly winning in the desert. Because we need to amended some picks, this becomes a great opportunity. The Cardinals could be playing for home-field advantage, but they also rest Carson Palmer if things don’t go as planned (e.g.: Carolina leads big, Arizona starts slow, Palmer takes a bad hit). Meanwhile, the Seahawks likely will want to win to get last week’s bad taste out their mouths.
(11) Minnesota Vikings (10-5) at (9) Green Bay Packers (10-5) **Amended Pick**
Once again, we were 50-50. It’s rare to see that for all three Games of the Week. Minnesota actually matches up well against Green Bay’s stumbling pass offense and leaky run defense. However, we also figured the Packers were not about to see themselves lose all three home games against NFC North opponents. Now because we need to amend three picks, we have no choice but to switch to the Vikings. At least if Seattle wins, Minnesota can avoid a third match-up with the Packers with a win. It’s not good a team to spend everything on winning the division, only to face that same team the next week. The opponent would already have a gameplan ready.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(3) New England Patriots (12-3) at (31) Miami Dolphins (5-10)
The Patriots can win AFC home-field advantage with a win. However, if they somehow lose, they would enter the postseason with a losing streak. The latter case also leads to a red flag in playoff team precedence. We’re sure Bill Belichick already understands the importance of finishing the regular season strong, though. No matter, this is a huge mismatch.
(17) New Orleans Saints (6-9) at (21) Atlanta Falcons (8-7) **Amended Pick**
Honestly, our third and final amendment came down to two choices we honestly don’t like. Given that we heavily entertained picking Seattle and Minnesota, we could rally around those amendments. However, we only mildly entertained road wins for New Orleans and Philadelphia. Sure, both teams go for the sweep against their respective opponents, but the Saints and Eagles are both inconsistent messes. The difference eventually boils down to the reports this afternoon that Giants head coach Tom Coughlin will (re: may) resign this Monday. We think that’ll be extra incentive for New York, so we’ll stick with them. That left this game for our final amendment.
(25) Baltimore Ravens (5-10) at (4) Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
A.J. McCarron has honestly held his own in two starts and one relief appearance as the Bengals quarterback. The offense is serviceable, especially heading into a plus match-up against the Ravens poor defense. However, Baltimore may make things interesting, especially after Ryan Mallett’s surprising start turned into an upset win over Pittsburgh last week.
(10) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at (30) Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Like the Seahawks, the Steelers turned their red hot momentum into a disappointing letdown last week. However, the two see the difference end there once they get a look at their Week 17 opponents. The Browns will have to turn to Austin Davis for the Week 17 start. Lucky Steelers. They’ve since the Browns use Week 17 spot starts from Thad Lewis in 2012, Seneca Wallace in 2011 and Bruce Gradkowski in 2008. I guess we show also say “poor Browns.”
(29) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at (12) Houston Texans (8-7)
After being totally burned last week by an upset pick in Tennessee, we won’t question the Texans this time around. With the Texans still needing a win to secure the AFC South crown (at least as of kickoff), they should be able to finish strong and win. In the process, it will mark the second time in three season that an AFC South team failed to regress after a “Plus-7” season. Granted both cases saw a repeated record (Colts 11-5 in both 2012 and 2013, Texans 9-7 in both 2014 and 2015), but just shows how awful the AFC South has been in recent years. Houston will finish 5-1 against the division and 4-6 elsewhere (after going 4-2 and 5-5 in 2014, respectively).
(32) Tennessee Titans (3-12) at (22) Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Speaking of that failed upset in Tennessee, we will also now are committed to stay away from the Titans as the season comes to an end. For all that’s going wrong for the Colts, having to rely on somebody like Josh Freeman or Ryan Lindley or Stephen Morris to win tomorrow and keep their AFC South title hopes alive, they still have a 10-rank advantage on the Titans.
(14) Washington Redskins (8-7) at (26) Dallas Cowboys (4-11)
We’re honestly not sure why most experts in the hunt for our title are picking the Cowboys. It’s not a given that Washington will sit more of its players despite having the NFC fourth seed locked in place. Why would Jay Gruden want to settle for an 8-8 record? The team is hot offensively and Kirk Cousins is just starting to prove doubters like us wrong. We think Washington will play the starters until the team’s secured victory. Knowing Dallas, that would happen until late in the game.
(23) Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) at (18) New York Giants (6-9)
Dating back to the beginning of the 2008 season, Philadelphia owns a 12-4 record against the Giants. Add in our obligatory road pick in this rivalry, and the Eagles seemed like a shoo-in just as recently as last Saturday night. However, with the Chip Kelly firing (which we like, for the record), we don’t have any confidence in that trend continuing tomorrow. Meanwhile, as we already mentioned the reports about Coughlin, we could see a case of the Giants playing extra motivated while the Eagles play out the string.
(19) Detroit Lions (6-9) at (20) Chicago Bears (6-9)
Both teams look to be very similar when assessing the big picture, but the Lions are playing inspired with a 5-2 record after their bye. Somehow, this leads to most of the top experts in this competition picking the Bears. Go figure. We feel quite confident in this pick. In fact, if we weren’t so confident in Washington and Detroit winning, we’d be a lot more worried about our Week 17 Hail Mary.
(24) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at (1) Carolina Panthers (14-1)
The Panthers somehow still need a win to earn NFC home-field advantage, so this game will matter for the Panthers. That actually probably helps the team avoid losing its momentum. They will take only one week “off” using that to get much-needed rest before making that final push during the NFL’s second season. Cam Newton can also seal his status as the MVP favorite for 2015.
(16) Oakland Raiders (7-8) at (5) Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)
This match-up narrowly missed Game of the Week status, with the Raiders falling just 12.12 points shy of reaching the necessary 10-rank differential. That’s about the drama involving this match-up.
(27) San Diego Chargers (4-11) at (7) Denver Broncos (11-4)
The Broncos will clinch a first-round bye with a win. That much will be needed a lot, considering that Peyton Manning is only “healthy” enough to be the backup quarterback tomorrow. Who knows if they still start Brock Osweiler in the postseason, but the Broncos need the prospect of Manning playing to have the optimal chance of winning Super Bowl 50. They will finish the regular season in strong fashion.
(13) St. Louis Rams (7-8) at (28) San Francisco 49ers (4-11)
We actually seriously entertained picking the 49ers in this game, especially because the Rams aren’t going to run away from any teams on the scoreboard. However, if the Rams win, we’d correctly predict the exact win-loss record both teams this season. That’s probably the peak of our interest for the narrative in this match-up. We’ll just stick with the Rams, albeit with some reservation.
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Recap: By picking Detroit over Chicago and Washington over Dallas, we made two picks that went against the grain of the top two experts… Meanwhile, our pick for the Jets over the Bills went against the FiveThirtyEight Elo model… We additionally had to amend three picks in order to be in the running for the regular season championship… We had four remaining games with a five-rank differential or less that acted as our “best choices” for amendment, so we chose our three amendments… If all fails, we will fall below the mean… If all succeeds, we will earn a regular season three-peat as the Pick’em champion.