We can’t stress enough how big this week could be for our Pick’em hopes. Not only are there two Games of the Week (Seahawks at Vikings, Texans at Bills), but there are nine divisional match-ups. That means 29 points are up for grabs this week, which we believe is the most of any week thus far. It could be the most in a week until Week 17. Furthermore, of the 11 multi-point match-ups, five feature an expert consensus at or below 70 percent (per NFL Pickwatch). This means we don’t have to get aggressive at all elsewhere. If we can predict those match-ups (plus the upset special) correctly, then we’ll be able to cash in on a monster week. Let’s get to the fun.
Now that we’re in December, we’re adding a tiny element to our predictions posts. Any match-up denoted with the dollar symbols [$$$] fit into the our “money” theme of the week. This week, the theme obviously involve any match-up with 70 percent or less consensus.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that our picks were submitted to NFL Pickwatch for this week’s games. A screencap is available below our picks.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(8) Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at (9) Minnesota Vikings (8-3) [$$$]
The Seattle offense dominated the past two weeks, but those games were at home. We expect to see some carry over, but it won’t be in the dominant variety like the wins over San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Much of this has to do with the road game and early kickoff. However, Minnesota doesn’t have the offense to run away from the Seahawks, which still gives a good chance for the ‘Hawks to close the door offensively. Ultimately, we expect the Vikings to settle a bit down the stretch. Perhaps if you saw our Monday feature, you saw us have both teams finish 10-6. The Seahawks got the five seed, meaning they got the tiebreaker by winning this game.
(11) Houston Texans (6-5) at (13) Buffalo Bills (5-6) [$$$]
If you clicked the aforementioned link, maybe you saw something even more notable than the ‘Hawks-Vikings teaser. Maybe you saw that we predicted the Bills to win out. To be honest, we didn’t recognize it until we linked the feature right here. The truth is that we simply went game-by-game to predict the December stretch run, without thinking about any playoff implications or any big-picture stories. For this match-up, we just think the Bills can better than their record. Their balance between offensive and defensive ability is impressive, which favors them to make a run at the postseason. As long as they show the consistency, the Bills end Houston’s winning streak.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(7) Green Bay Packers (7-4) at (23) Detroit Lions (4-7)
Thanks to a Hail Mary, we correctly predicted this Thursday Night Football match-up.
(4) Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at (19) St. Louis Rams (4-7)
This could be a trap game, but we’ll lay low on the potential upset. The Rams are far too limited (and the Cardinals are far too explosive) on offense to pull off another win against the Cardinals. The Rams are also bound to regress after a 3-0 start against the NFC West and a 1-7 record elsewhere. Let’s ride the Cardinals on the strength of their offense and their 95-plus percent expert consensus.
(21) Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at (17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) [$$$]
This was the toughest game for us to pick, honestly. We at first were going with the Buccaneers, but then decided against it. Atlanta is falling apart, but we remain tempted to keep belief in them here. Frankly, we expect some regression, given the Falcons are 0-2 against NFC South and 6-3 elsewhere. If Atlanta can’t get the job done here, we’re finally giving up on them.
(3) Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) at (31) Cleveland Browns (2-9)
The Browns send Austin Davis out at quarterback. There’s not much hopes for them to win, especially with there being not much hope for the defense to stop Cincinnati’s attack.
(28) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at (32) Tennessee Titans (2-9) [$$$]
There isn’t much to break down here, as both teams are quite bad. At the least, we will break the trend of road games winning these divisional games. Tennessee finally ends its 11-game home losing streak.
(6) Denver Broncos (9-2) at (27) San Diego Chargers (3-8)
The Chargers have as hard of a time as anybody in scoring battle this year. They rank dead last in Net Yards per Point Scored (per Cold, Hard Football Facts). As long as the Denver plan continues (run well and protect the football to set up your elite defense with good field position) after last week’s takedown of the Patriots, the Broncos will roll.
(5) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at (16) Oakland Raiders (5-6) [$$$]
We were all of 3.45 points away from the Raiders making this one of our Games of the Week, so don’t be surprised that this is one of the “money” match-ups. Oakland’s offense is good enough to hang 24 on the Chiefs, will would be the Alex Smith-led team in serious jeopardy of losing. That’s why we totally understand more than 30 percent of the experts going with the Raiders. Expect this game to be a close battle, but we’ll take the Chiefs on the strength of their TABRanking.
(1) Carolina Panthers (11-0) at (22) New Orleans Saints (4-7)
The Saints are a familiar foe with home-field advantage, so this could be surprisingly tough for the Panthers team that hasn’t been challenged for weeks. Ultimately, though, this comes down to Carolina’s elite defense being able to make a few more plays than New Orleans’ pitiful defense. We expect Carolina to remain undefeated until the showdown in the Meadowlands.
(26) Dallas Cowboys (3-8) at (15) Washington Redskins (5-6)
Something about this match-up makes us believe that this one will be an awfully close and tenuous battle for the home team. Despite Dallas losing Tony Romo again with the collarbone injury, the Cowboys should be ready to go, thanks to their extra rest after the Thanksgiving game. Still, we’ll take Washington on the strength of their five-game home winning streak.
The Rest (1 point each)
(10) New York Jets (6-5) at (20) New York Giants (5-6) [$$$] **Upset of the Week**
We have to fit an upset in here somewhere, and this is probably the best spot. Without Darrelle Revis expected to miss tomorrow’s game due to a concussion, it opens up an opportunity for Eli Manning to bounce back after his horrid showing in Washington. He has a receiver in Odell Beckham, Jr. who can take over the game. Those two will work tandem. Meanwhile, although Ryan Fitzpatrick was on point last week, he’s not going to win many more games via his arm. He’s good enough to win this game only if the two teams keep it under 24 points. The way we see it, both teams score over 24 points to help the Giants back to .500.
(25) Baltimore Ravens (4-7) at (30) Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Miami is awful against the AFC East, but at least the team keeps it respectful outside of the division. It’s enough to allow us to follow the consensus here, although FiveThirtyEight favors the Ravens to win. It’s our best chance to go against the grain of their Elo ratings.
(29) San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at (18) Chicago Bears (5-6)
This could be somebody’s Upset of the Week, or it could be somebody’s Lock of the Week. It all depends on how the person views the lowly 49ers playing on the road with an early kickoff and how the person views the Bears actually being worthy of a .500 record. Honestly, both teams have played an awfully tough schedule, so there’s legitimate reasoning for their respective records looking better than their respective stats. Therefore, we see the Bears as a surprisingly worthy .500 team, but not one you can lock in as the victor.
(24) Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at (2) New England Patriots (10-1) **Lock of the Week**
Yes, we somehow forget that the Patriots are still available to be our lock. Now is a good time to cash in on that realization. Philadelphia allow five touchdown passes apiece to Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford. Meanwhile, the Patriots are smarting after losing their first game of the season. It doesn’t bode well for an Eagles team that has already lost its poise and confidence.
(14) Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at (12) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
This match-up was quite close to GotW status, but it didn’t get the due respect from the experts. More than 90 percent of experts picked the Steelers to win, despite Matt Hasselbeck’s 4-0 record on the other side. We’ll take the Steelers at home on the strength of that consensus, but our confidence level certainly isn’t as strong as the consensus.
