As we’ve discussed for much of the season, things are going nearly as we thought they would this season in the NFL. From the unexpected struggles of perennial playoff teams (re: Seahawks and Ravens) to the shocking undefeated starts of predicted mediocre teams (re: Bengals and Panthers), we’ve been plenty wrong in 2015. We certainly expect to grade out much worse than 2013 and 2014. However, there’s also been several teams that we correctly predicted to rise or fall.
Since we’ve more or less hit the midpoint of the 2015 NFL season, let’s quickly recap where things stand from our preseason predictions.
WRONG… ON A HIT OR MISS: Cincinnati Bengals (Predicted 7-9, Currently 8-0)
Although we’ve been dead wrong in the predicting the bottom line of the Bengals’ 2015 season, we did some solid reasoning that was motivating our thought process. That’s why we opened our Bengals commentary by saying: “One of these years, something will have to give for the Bengals. Either Andy Dalton turns this team into a serious Super Bowl contender, so the team flames out to the point of needing to hit the reset button.” Citing regression related to Expected Win Differential and first half defensive success, we thought Cincinnati would finally break. Instead, Dalton’s turned this team into a serious Super Bowl contender, thanks to an Offensive Passer Rating well into the triple digits. So what helped that? Our noted regression in the pass rush and big-play passing offense. Odds are the Bengals cruise past our projected 6-10 win total.
WRONG, BUT RIGHT AS THE SAME TIME: Carolina Panthers (Predicted 8-8, Currently 8-0)
Back in August, we put the “long-shot prospective Super Bowl contender” label on a pair of 8-8 teams from the NFC South. One of the teams, the Atlanta Falcons flashed Super Bowl potential before fizzling out some with disappointing back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay and San Francisco. The other team is the Carolina Panthers, who’s start to potentially recognize every bit of that prospective potential. For Cam Newton’s part, we noted that he was an outlier in the running game and already won a playoff game to boot, so we would the offense would at least be strong in the run game and have veteran experience in the pass game. That’s just how things are going on offense right now. Meanwhile, we noted that the emergence of Josh Norman and Bené Benwikere in the secondary gave the defense more depth behind a thinning pass rush. Norman’s definitely playing his part, as he is playing like the best cornerback in the league right now. Basically, despite our lack in the confidence in Carolina, we knew what they could potentially do. They’ll put all our doubts to rest when they likely pass by our 6-10 win projection.
RIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH: Minnesota Vikings (P 9-7, C 6-2) and New York Jets (P 9-7, C 5-3)
If there were any two teams we were most confident to rise to the ranks of playoff contenders, it were the Vikings and Jets. For Minnesota, we loved the blueprint. Teddy Bridgewater made notable progress from his rookie season that we expect to last, while the defense had young standouts to develop a nucleus. For New York, we loved the potential for a bounce back. We saw the signs of immediate regression, with a truly talented defensive front seven to boot. Through eight games, both teams may even go past our expectations. The Vikings already reached our 6-10 win projection, so simply a winning second half of the season could slip them past our expectations. This outcome depend on how Minnesota handles a tougher schedule, as the Vikings’ six wins came against teams with a combined 14 wins. The Jets probably won’t surpass our 6-10 win projection, but they could make the playoffs. That was something we decided not to predict in the end. That’s because…
JUST AS WRONG AS EVERYBODY ELSE: Baltimore Ravens (Predicted 10-6, Currently 2-6)
…the Ravens took the last playoff spot from the Jets. Let’s face it: we didn’t see the Ravens struggling this bad in 2015. Sure, we presented some warning signs. We mentioned how pass rush regression will hurt the pass defense. We mentioned how pass protection regression and general elasticity will hurt the offense. However, we didn’t want to take for granted how consistent the Ravens were as a franchise. As a result, we were just as wrong as everybody else.
RIGHT, UNLIKE EVERYBODY ELSE: Philadelphia Eagles (Predicted 9-7, Currently 4-4)
Okay, maybe it wasn’t “everybody else” claiming that the Eagles were Super Bowl contenders, but it certainly seemed like many were on the Philly bandwagon. However, we knew there was no foundation holding that bandwagon together. We questioned the offseason moves by Chip Kelly, headlined by the misguided trade for quarterback Sam Bradford. At best, we saw the Eagles continuing to play at a lower-level playoff level and nothing more. That’s where they stand right now, struggling through the questionable personnel moves made by Kelly.
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT: Houston Texans (Predicted 6-10, Currently 3-5)
We noted the Texans as the team with the “most obvious fall.” Noting their six wins against teams with 12+ losses last year, Houston was propped up last year by an easy schedule. Furthermore, with the “Plus-7” elasticity, we felt regression was basically a guarantee, even if the Texans improved in several facets of the game. At 3-5, the Texans are perfectly on pace to finish with our predicted record. However, there’s one thing that could change everything: the AFC South. With the Colts “leading” the division at 3-5, there’s an outside chance that the Texans back their way into the playoffs with a .500 or worse record. That could throw our predictions for a bit of a loop.
NOT RIGHT ENOUGH: Detroit Lions (Predicted 6-10, Currently 1-7)
For all intent and purpose, we knew the Lions were going to fall apart after the smoke and mirrors they provided during last year’s 11-5 season. We cited the losses of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley to the defensive line as the primary reason for an expected defensive letdown. And we then noted that the part of defense was kind of what held everything together last year. Then there this: “…check out the opening four games: at San Diego, at Minnesota, v. Denver and at Seattle. Say hello to an 0-4 start. Our prediction may actually be modest in decline.” Through eight game, our predicted decline was most definitely modest. It’s near impossible to figure out which teams will self-implode, but the Lions to doing just that.
NOT WRONG ENOUGH: Arizona Cardinals (Predicted 8-8, Currently 6-2)
We knew better than to suggest the expected regression at hand for the Cardinals would lead to a total collapse. Bruce Arians just seems to have his team on the correct wavelength. However, Arizona’s done more than survive potential regression. They’ve actually smash the notion into pieces. We cited Carson Palmer’s 0-2 playoff record as the reason why we didn’t see the Cardinals as a long-shot prospective Super Bowl contender. Palmer smashed that notion by leading one of the most dynamic offenses ever through eight games. Arizona ranks among Top 30 since 1940 with 263 points scored in this span. One way to avoid one-possession wins from turning into one-possession losses is to avoid playing in one-possession games. The Cardinals have played in two such game and own a simple 1-1 record in those games. We couldn’t have possibly underestimated Arizona’s offense any more. The way this unit is moving, it’s more than likely the team will smash past our 6-10 win projection.