NFL 2015 TABRankings: Week 8

The difference between the top group of teams and the group that makes up “the rest” continues to grow bigger and bigger each week. After eight weeks of action, the gap might have finally reached an absurd level. Ranked sixth in this week’s TABRankings, the Arizona Cardinals own more than an 85-point advantage over the seventh-ranked team. That happens to be an NFC West rival in the St. Louis Rams. And sure, while the Rams did already win in Arizona this season, the credentials as “contender” go firmly in favor of the Cardinals. In fact, when looking at the raw difference, we even an even bigger gap.

The Cardinals rank sixth in Raw TABR, and yet they hold more than a 130-point advantage on the seventh-ranked Oakland Raiders. No, that is not a misprint, the Raiders are actually seventh in Raw TABR. That helps to vault them into the top eight of our rankings, better them in a territory they haven’t been in for nearly 13 years.

Digression aside, that 130-point gap in Raw RABR is ridiculous. The Raiders are actually closer to Washington (20th in Raw TABR, 19th in True TABR) than they are to the Cardinals. This is not merely a statistical aberration. We’d definitely that the eye test confirms what the numbers are telling us. As it stands right now, there are six contenders… and everybody else.

So who could emerge from “the rest” to become a contender? Recent trends say the Falcons won’t be on their way back. The Jets also dropped from the top group, and they will not bounce back if Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t play for a while with a non-throwing thumb issue. Meanwhile, as cool as it would be to see the Rams (last winning season in 2003) and the Raiders (last winning season in 2002) bounce through their respective franchise’s funk, we may have to see more before we believe in them.

The answer likely lies outside of the top 10, and that’s where we see some potential answers. The Steelers (11th) didn’t close out the Bengals on Sunday, but Ben Roethlisberger has his fair share of struggles during his first game back from injury (and unfortunately, the sample size isn’t all that small). Once he gets in a rhythm, that offense should be able to pick up steam, even without Le’Veon Bell. Combine that with a defense that’s still surprisingly among the best in relative scoring defense, and there’s a foundation to contend.

Meanwhile, the Eagles (12nd) and Saints (14th) have offensive-minded head coaches who will benefit from an ease in the schedule. Both teams have faced Top 8 schedules thus far, so facing some inferior opponents could help them to rack up the wins. Then again, neither coach has been to instill consistency in his respect team in recent years, so we won’t get too far ahead of ourselves.

That leaves us with the two-time defending NFC champions. The Seahawks (13th) have wins over three Bottom 5 teams and the Tony Romo-less Dallas Cowboys, so they honestly still have a lot to prove in 2015. However, they certainly have the system in play to once again become contenders if they perform in November and December they way have before under Pete Carroll. They are 28-13 in that subset during the Carroll era, including the 2-6 mark during Carroll’s first season in 2010. That suggests a double-digit win season in Seattle. As big as their fourth-quarter defensive problems were to start the season, that should still regress. Beware of the Seahawks.

For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.

Here’s our formula:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for Week 8.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.4.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 8 are available below. Make sure to check back each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 8