Happy Halloween everybody! In Week 8, we have three huge battles for our Games of the Week. We feel comfortable in two of our picks there, but we’ll need to make some aggressive as well to advance in the Pick’em standings.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that we’re only looking at 2015 data from now on to make our picks. Our 2015 NFL Season Predictions made back in August no longer have any say in these picks. Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(2) Cincinnati Bengals (6-0) at (12) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
We laid out this game plan last week, after the Steelers won against Arizona with Landry Jones under center. We figured the Steelers would get caught in a trap game against Kansas City, only to bounce back and give the Bengals their first loss. Well, it seems like Ben Roethlisberger is set to comeback and start tomorrow, so we’re sticking with our game plan.
(6) New York Jets (4-2) at (15) Oakland Raiders (3-3)
Surprise, surprise! Who would’ve thought that this game, between teams that went a combined 7-25 last year, would match up in a Game of the Week in Week 8? This is unequivocally our most important pick of the week, as it’s the lone GotW pick we don’t have full confidence making, all while the experts aren’t fully set on one winner. Looking at the match-up, the Raiders still have a feel of “not yet” as contenders, while the Jets are truly a playoff-worthy team. New York not only plays well in the trenches, but they have balance on the rest of the roster. The defense can make plays in the secondary. The passing game can move under Ryan Fitzpatrick. The running game has at least Chris Ivory to set the tone, if not Bilal Powell and/or Zac Stacy. This is a “prove it” game in our eyes for Raiders. Until they can win this type of game, we’ll take the Jets. We expect them to control the trenches and made the afternoon tough for Derek Carr.
(3) Green Bay Packers (6-0) at (4) Denver Broncos (6-0)
Remember we picked the Broncos to beat the Packers in Super Bowl 50, citing more balance on the Denver roster. At the point, though, the Packers are definitely more balanced. The Green Bay pass rush and secondary are both playing well against the pass, making the NFC favorites a truly balanced contender thus far. Meanwhile, Denver ranks last in Offensive Passer Rating, and we’re not exactly sure Peyton Manning can recover from his trouble. If his nerve issues have truly resurfaced, his arm will only become a greater liability. He needs to rely on his intellect and experience alone, but that might not be enough against the Packers.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(21) Miami Dolphins (3-3) at (1) New England Patriots (6-0)
We correctly predicted this match-up for Thursday Night Football.
(14) Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at (27) Chicago Bears (2-4)
The Vikings have feasted on an easy schedule thus far. It doesn’t get much tougher in Chicago, where the match-up should favor the Vikings. We expect the Minnesota defense to force some mistakes out of Jay Cutler. Meanwhile, the Bears defense isn’t exactly set out to make Teddy Bridgewater’s afternoon all that harrowing. Minnesota needs to these wins against inferior teams, but the schedule gets tougher later. The Vikings already had a letdown loss in Week 1, so we don’t see it happening again.
(31) Tennessee Titans (1-5) at (28) Houston Texans (2-5)
This is a pretty awful match-up, but there is one interesting dynamic to note. The Titans defense is quietly playing some decent football, especially with its pass rush, while the Houston defense simply looks awful (even with J.J. Watt). We’ll use consider that as good reason to make a pick that goes against the grain. Tennessee’s defense does just enough to win.
(29) San Francisco 49ers (2-5) at (10) St. Louis Rams (3-3) **Lock of the Week**
The Rams aren’t the type to blow away teams offensively, so we wouldn’t normally consider this a potential lock. However, we are running out of good choices, and this might be our best bet. The Rams front seven should make it very tough for Colin Kaepernick, while the San Francisco defense isn’t set to make life miserable for Nick Foles. We’ll have to lock it up here.
(25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at (8) Atlanta Falcons (6-1)
The Falcons continue to skate by on an easy part in their schedule, drawing up a rookie quarterback this time. Between that and Tampa Bay’s poor defense, the Falcons should be able to cruise at home.
The Rest (1 point each)
(32) Detroit Lions (1-6) vs (19) Kansas City Chiefs (2-5) in London
It’s a shame the Chiefs had to lose a home game at Arrowhead to place this game. We consider it a bigger shame than London having to settle for another poor NFL match-up. Kansas City could actually be gunning for .500 if the team had closed out the Bears. The other four losses for the Chiefs are a product of a tough schedule, so we’ll take them to beat the league’s worst team.
(24) San Diego Chargers (2-5) at (26) Baltimore Ravens (1-6)
Both teams are probably better than their record indicates, but the Ravens are the ones truly hurting for a win. We don’t envision the Ravens going 1-7, and we don’t envision the Chargers winning again in Baltimore after last year’s last-minute comeback. This one could be an explosive game, but Baltimore will finally eek out its second victory.
(7) Arizona Cardinals (5-2) at (23) Cleveland Browns (2-5)
Unlike when we picked the Browns to upset the Broncos two weeks ago, this match-up isn’t favorable for the Browns at all. Arizona’s best strength is currently its passing offense, and the Browns defense is struggling to stop its opponents. We’ll take the favorite.
(9) New York Giants (4-3) at (17) New Orleans Saints (3-4)
This match-up was awfully close to being a Game of the Week, falling only two ranking spots just shy. We’ll consider this a lucky break, and we don’t feel particularly confident in this one. The Giants have burned us in the last two weeks, flopping against the Eagles and then beating the Cowboys (although, it’s truly the Cowboys who dropped the ball for us last week). Meanwhile, we’re still cautiously optimistic the Saints are finally turning their season around to contention. The experts like the Saints, so we’ll pick them.
(13) Seattle Seahawks (3-4) at (20) Dallas Cowboys (2-4)
The hope for Dallas here needs to be that they are close in the fourth quarter. Odds are they can use that to make a comeback, given Seattle’s current horrendous state closing out games. However, we see this as a bad match-up for Matt Cassel and the limited Dallas offense. The Seahawks are much more stingy than the Giants on defense, so even cutting down on the mistake won’t be enough. Meanwhile, unless the team can get a strip sack or two on Russell Wilson, the takeaway drought likely continues.
(22) Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at (5) Carolina Panthers (6-0) **Upset of the Week**
We need to go with an upset somewhere here, and we feel like this is the best choice. In the awful AFC South, it would be an eyesore for the Colts to lead the way at 3-5. Furthermore, it’s entirely possible that the Panthers, who have yet to win by more than 11 points, have trouble putting away a struggling yet very capable Andrew Luck. Then there’s that whole concept of a trap game. One would hope the Panthers aren’t caught looking ahead at the Packers for next week’s game, but what are odds we see a 7-0 v. 7-0 game seven days after we see a 6-0 v. 6-0 game? Let’s the odds here, and we’ll go with the upset to ruin the back-to-back undefeated battles.
Bye dates: (11) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4), (16) Buffalo Bills (3-4), (18) Washington Redskins (3-4), (30) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
