The rift between the undefeated teams and the rest of the league continues to widen. Besides three winning teams (Jets, Cardinals and Falcons), no team seems to be close to five 6-0 teams (Patriots, Bengals, Packers, Broncos and Panthers). We don’t know which other teams will emerge. We’ll see if the results from Week 8 can help answer that.
Note that we’re doing these TABRankings on a Thursday because of the NBA Season Predictions made earlier this week.
For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.
Here’s our formula:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for Week 7.
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.45.
With now all that put together, the results for Week 7 are available below. Make sure to check back each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!
The TABRankings top eight:
1
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, 3
, 4
5
, 6
, 7
, 8
True TABRankings — Week 7
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | New England Patriots | 6-0 | 538.26 (1st) | -14.59 (21st) | 523.67 |
| 2 | 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-0 | 522.97 (3rd) | -32.68 (27th) | 490.29 |
| 3 | 3 | Green Bay Packers | 6-0 | 528.54 (2nd) | -43.02 (30th) | 485.52 |
| 4 | 5 | Denver Broncos | 6-0 | 474.40 (4th) | -39.37 (29th) | 435.03 |
| 5 | 6 | Carolina Panthers | 6-0 | 446.25 (5th) | -34.01 (28th) | 412.24 |
| 6 | 4 | New York Jets | 4-2 | 379.66 (7th) | 1.55 (15th) | 381.21 |
| 7 | 7 | Arizona Cardinals | 5-2 | 401.61 (6th) | -45.69 (32nd) | 355.92 |
| 8 | 8 | Atlanta Falcons | 6-1 | 350.92 (8th) | -25.31 (25th) | 325.61 |
| 9 | 12 | New York Giants | 4-3 | 300.93 (9th) | -20.83 (23rd) | 280.10 |
| 10 | 14 | St. Louis Rams | 3-3 | 246.70 (12th) | 27.23 (5th) | 273.93 |
| 11 | 11 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3-4 | 236.25 (13th) | 24.82 (6th) | 261.07 |
| 12 | 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-3 | 263.51 (11th) | -6.60 (19th) | 256.91 |
| 13 | 16 | Seattle Seahawks | 3-4 | 228.05 (15th) | 17.95 (8th) | 246.00 |
| 14 | 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 4-2 | 284.48 (10th) | -43.82 (31st) | 240.66 |
| 15 | 21 | Oakland Raiders | 3-3 | 230.02 (14th) | -4.33 (18th) | 225.69 |
| 16 | 10 | Buffalo Bills | 3-4 | 211.35 (16th) | 13.28 (11th) | 224.63 |
| 17 | 20 | New Orleans Saints | 3-4 | 195.61 (17th) | 12.96 (12th) | 208.57 |
| 18 | 17 | Washington Redskins | 3-4 | 188.31 (18th) | 12.36 (13th) | 200.67 |
| 19 | 25 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2-5 | 133.12 (21st) | 40.24 (2nd) | 173.35 |
| 20 | 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 2-4 | 120.87 (23th) | 41.58 (1st) | 162.45 |
| 21 | 24 | Miami Dolphins | 3-3 | 168.43 (19th) | -27.45 (26th) | 140.98 |
| 22 | 19 | Indianapolis Colts | 3-4 | 136.34 (20th) | -3.12 (16th) | 133.22 |
| 23 | 22 | Cleveland Browns | 2-5 | 121.48 (22nd) | -3.96 (17th) | 117.52 |
| 24 | 18 | San Diego Chargers | 2-5 | 81.41 (26th) | 24.44 (7th) | 105.85 |
| 25 | 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-4 | 105.85 (24th) | -23.64 (24th) | 82.21 |
| 26 | 26 | Baltimore Ravens | 1-6 | 48.74 (30th) | 29.66 (3rd) | 78.40 |
| 27 | 31 | Chicago Bears | 2-4 | 61.62 (29th) | 13.39 (10th) | 75.01 |
| 28 | 23 | Houston Texans | 2-5 | 87.00 (25th) | -12.43 (20th) | 74.57 |
| 29 | 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 2-5 | 43.94 (31st) | 29.53 (4th) | 73.47 |
| 30 | 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-5 | 62.18 (28th) | 6.24 (14th) | 68.42 |
| 31 | 29 | Tennessee Titans | 1-5 | 73.87 (27th) | -20.55 (22nd) | 53.32 |
| 32 | 30 | Detroit Lions | 1-6 | 25.63 (32nd) | 14.12 (9th) | 39.75 |
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(21) Miami Dolphins (3-3) at (1) New England Patriots (6-0)
Miami certainly dominated in its last two wins, but it’s only helped the Dolphins to gain 11 spots in these rankings. The Dolphins still have a long way to go to threaten the Patriots in Foxborough in primetime. Miami defeated the lowly Titans (31st in TABR) and Texans (28th) to get back to .500, but the team isn’t a proven commodity against a good team. Go with New England, and you can have no hesitation taking them straight-up or against the spread. We pick the Patriots over the Dolphins.