Our struggles continue in Week 5. Albeit in a week, with very little point-based impact at play, we suffered some misses that likely drop us in the ranks of the Pick’em competition. Our hopes of a three-peat seem to be in some serious jeopardy.
Seattle’s blown fourth-quarter lead on 17 points hurt us the most. Houston’s failed comeback on Thursday Night Football also played an important role in our subpar week. Finally, Jacksonville’s loss at Tampa Bay and San Diego’s last-second loss on Monday Night Football against Pittsburgh did us no favors. That’s four games of note shooting us down in Week 5.
Here are the horrid results.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(12) St. Louis Rams (2-2) at (4) Green Bay Packers (4-0)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(21) Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at (28) Houston Texans (1-3)
(24) Cleveland Browns (1-3) at (18) Baltimore Ravens (1-3)
(5) Denver Broncos (4-0) at (19) Oakland Raiders (2-2)
The Rest (1 point each)
(15) Washington Redskins (2-2) at (3) Atlanta Falcons (4-0)
(17) Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at (2) Cincinnati Bengals (4-0) **Upset of the Week**
(26) Chicago Bears (1-3) at (22) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
(25) New Orleans Saints (1-3) at (16) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)
(29) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at (32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)
(10) Buffalo Bills (2-2) at (23) Tennessee Titans (1-2)
(9) Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at (30) Detroit Lions (0-4)
(1) New England Patriots (3-0) at (13) Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
(27) San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at (6) New York Giants (2-2) **Lock of the Week**
(11) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at (20) San Diego Chargers (2-2)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 8-6 and 11 points (out of 19 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 47-30 and 75 points (61.04 win and 60.48 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 1-0 this week (7-5 overall… 58.33 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 1-2 this week (15-8 overall… 65.22 win percentage) [includes 1-2 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 1-4 overall (16 ranking points… 20 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 4-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Packers, Giants… best streak: three weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 52-25 | 1 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 82 | |
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 52-25 | 1 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 82 | |
| 1 | T. Jackson | 52-25 | 3 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 81 | |
| 4 | C. Carter | 51-26 | 4 | J. Bell | 80 | |
| 4 | K. Johnson | 51-26 | 4 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 80 | |
| 6 | M. Irvin | 50-27 | 6 | FiveThirtyEight | 79 | |
| 6 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 50-27 | 6 | V. Iyer | 79 | |
| 6 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 50-27 | 6 | K. Joyner | 79 | |
| 9 | Nate Davis, USAT | 49-28 | 9 | N. Davis | 78 | |
| 9 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 49-28 | 10 | M. Faulk | 77 | |
| 9 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 49-28 | 11 | Don Banks, SI | 76 | |
| 9 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 49-28 | 11 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 76 | |
| M | Mean Record | 48.4-28.6 | 11 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 76 | |
| 13 | D. Banks | 48-29 | M | Mean Points | 75.96 | |
| 13 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 48-29 | 14 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 75 | |
| 13 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 48-29 | 14 | M. Golic | 75 | |
| 13 | C. Mortensen | 48-29 | 14 | S. Wickersham | 75 | |
| 13 | P. Prisco | 48-29 | 17 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 74 | |
| 18 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 47-30 | 18 | M. Ditka | 74 | |
| 18 | A. Dobrowolski | 47-30 | 18 | R. Jaworski | 74 | |
| 18 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 47-30 | 20 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 74 | |
| 21 | Football Outsiders | 46-31 | 20 | K. Warner | 74 | |
| 21 | S. Mariucci | 46-31 | 20 | FB Outsiders | 72 | |
| 21 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 46-31 | 23 | M. Hoge | 72 | |
| 24 | A. Caplan | 44-33 | 24 | M. Schlereth | 72 | |
| 25 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 43-34 | 25 | E. Allen | 63 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
After beating all experts two years in a row, according to our comparisons to the NFL Pickwatch prediction logs, we rank in a tie for 79th out of the 134 experts who predicted all 77 games from Weeks 1 through 5. We trail a trio of experts (Gordon McGuinness, Adam Meyer and the Prediction Machine) by seven games in those standings.
Leading up to Week 6, we’re honestly still struggling to find our ground on this weird season. Five of the six undefeated teams will be on the road, which could make for some interesting predictions. Also, there’s a pretty big MNF match-up between two NFC East rivals in the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. Beyond that, we don’t expect much room to gain ground in the Pick’em competition.