Week 4 led to four amended picks from our 2015 NFL Season Predictions, and we split those four games. Picking the Ravens and Jets worked out well for us, but picking the Cardinals and Cowboys didn’t. Let’s call it even. Because of that, we had very little room to improve. It looks like we still have some comebacking to do after the season’s first quarter.
Let’s get to the Pick’em results:
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(14) New York Giants (1-2) at (7) Buffalo Bills (2-1)
(13) Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at (4) Denver Broncos (3-0)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(25) Baltimore Ravens (0-3) at (9) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) **Amended Pick** **Upset of the Week**
(11) New York Jets (2-1) at (27) Miami Dolphins (1-2) **Amended Pick**
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at (15) Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
(6) Carolina Panthers (3-0) at (28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
(16) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at (24) Washington Redskins (1-2)
(23) St. Louis Rams (1-2) at (2) Arizona Cardinals (3-0) **Amended Pick**
The Rest (1 point each)
(18) Houston Texans (1-2) at (8) Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
(17) Oakland Raiders (2-1) at (32) Chicago Bears (0-3)
(20) Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at (5) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)
(22) Cleveland Browns (1-2) at (21) San Diego Chargers (1-2)
(3) Green Bay Packers (3-0) at (26) San Francisco 49ers (1-2) **Lock of the Week**
(10) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at (30) New Orleans Saints (0-3) **Amended Pick**
(29) Detroit Lions (0-3) at (12) Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 10-5 and 16 points (out of 25 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 39-24 and 64 points (61.90 win and 60.95 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 1-1 this week (6-5 overall… 54.55 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 4-2 this week (14-6 overall… 70 win percentage) [includes 1-2 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 1-3 overall (16 ranking points… 25 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 3-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Packers… best streak: two weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 44-19 | 1 | J. Bell | 69 | |
| 2 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 43-20 | 1 | T. Jackson | 69 | |
| 3 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 42-21 | 1 | K. Johnson | 69 | |
| 4 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 41-22 | 1 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 69 | |
| 4 | C. Mortensen | 41-22 | 5 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 67 | |
| 4 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 41-22 | 5 | V. Iyer | 67 | |
| 7 | C. Carter | 40-23 | 5 | S. Wickersham | 67 | |
| 7 | Nate Davis, USAT | 40-23 | 8 | N. Davis | 65 | |
| 7 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 40-23 | 8 | M. Faulk | 65 | |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 40-23 | 8 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 65 | |
| M | Mean Record | 39.16-23.84 | 8 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 65 | |
| 11 | Don Banks, SI | 39-24 | 12 | D. Banks | 64 | |
| 11 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 39-24 | 12 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 64 | |
| 11 | M. Irvin | 39-24 | M | Mean Points | 63.48 | |
| 11 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 39-24 | 14 | FiveThirtyEight | 63 | |
| 11 | K. Joyner | 39-24 | 14 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 63 | |
| 11 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 39-24 | 14 | P. Prisco | 63 | |
| 17 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 38-25 | 17 | R. Jaworski | 62 | |
| 17 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 38-25 | 18 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 61 | |
| 17 | S. Mariucci | 38-25 | 18 | M. Ditka | 61 | |
| 17 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 38-25 | 20 | Football Outsiders | 60 | |
| 21 | FB Outsiders | 37-26 | 20 | M. Golic | 60 | |
| 21 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 37-26 | 20 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 60 | |
| 21 | M. Schlereth | 37-26 | 23 | K. Warner | 59 | |
| 24 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 35-28 | 24 | M. Hoge | 58 | |
| 24 | A. Caplan | 35-28 | 25 | E. Allen | 52 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
The highlight of the week was provided by Chris Mortensen, who went 14-1 on the week. His lone loss came due to the Rams-Cardinals game. He replaces Cris Carter as part of an ESPN trio who are in part leading the way in this competition. USA Today’s Jarrett Bell also leads the way after a strong Week 4 performance, as he picked Washington as part of a 12-3 week.
After beating all experts two years in a row, according to our comparisons to the NFL Pickwatch prediction logs, we rank in a tie for 55th out of the 136 experts who predicted all 63 games from Weeks 1 through 4. We trail a trio of experts (Gordon McGuinness, Adam Meyer and Geoff Ulrich) by six games in those standings.
All said, we expect to be in a better spot than where we are now. We’re simply mediocre, which fits the bill for most teams in the NFL right now. Leading up to Week 5, it looks like another highly predictable week for who the experts will pick. The biggest game will clearly be the Seahawks at Bengals game. It may very well be the lone Game of the Week, so it could make or break our Week 5 experience. Make sure to tune in Saturday night to see who we’ll pick. Remember that Seattle is coming off short rest, and the Seahawks will play a cross-country game on the road with an early kickoff. We chose Cincinnati for our season predictions. Will we keep them as our choice?