Give kudos to the NFL for this year’s scheduling, at least when it comes to building early excitement for the 2015 season. Although last week’s games generally involved luckluster match-ups, we at least had the “Thank God it’s back” vibe to make us more than happy. Now that the novelty’s worn off, we have some stellar match-ups for Week 2. It comes at just the right time for some teams and absolutely the worst time for others. As for us, it will be a chance at some redemption after a flat performance in Week 1.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Remember that since it’s only Week 2, this week’s predictions will generally focus much on how our 2015 NFL Season Predictions panned out. Considering that we used 25 percent weight for the 2015 season in our Week 1 TABRankings, we’ll apply similar logic here. In this case, Week 1 play will account for about 25 percent of our consideration, while the rest goes to the original predictions.
Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(3) Denver Broncos (1-0) at (11) Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) **Amended Pick**
We absolutely nailed the Thursday Night Football prediction, correctly taking the over and correctly claiming a bounce back performance by Peyton Manning. This was a great start to the week, and it gives us confidence heading into the rest of the games.
(1) New England Patriots (1-0) at (8) Buffalo Bills (1-0)
After a monster win in Week 1 at home against the Colts, the Bills now host their top AFC East rival. We expect Rex Ryan to have at least one competitive game against the Patriots, like he does in most seasons. We had this spot leading to victory for Buffalo during our preseason predictions, but we saw it coming with the desperation of trying to avoid an 0-2 start. Given that we already amended one pick for our Games of the Week, we’ll stick with the Bills. However, we are hesistant, and we this match-up being about 50-50.
(16) San Diego Chargers (1-0) at (6) Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)
This is a tricky match-up, and we don’t necessarily think it will be easy one to predict. We originally had the Bengals in this spot successfully avoiding at 0-2 start, but Cincinnati swiftly busted up our Week 1 “upset special.” We find it hard to believe that Cincinnati is in line for another 2-0 start, but we have no reason to change our preseason pick for this game.
(2) Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at (4) Green Bay Packers (1-0)
When we first saw this game, we had a tough time picking a winner. However, in our preseason predictions, we thought the Packers would finally get over the hump and get that revenge. Not having Kam Chancellor and losing in Week 1 both help Seattle’s case to amend the pick. For those reasons, we stick with the Packers to break their trend of losing to elite balanced teams.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(14) Detroit Lions (0-1) at (27) Minnesota Vikings (0-1)
We thought the Vikings were the biggest Week 1 disappointment, but this game becomes surprisingly sketchy. However, we think Teddy Bridgewater bounces back against the as-advertised regression-affect Lions defense. We stick with our original pick.
(32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at (26) New Orleans Saints (0-1) **Lock of the Week**
Tampa Bay’s defense got off to an awful start against Marcus Mariota. It won’t be any easier against Drew Brees.
(5) Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at (17) Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
We don’t understand how the vast majority of experts are picking the Eagles here. The hype is far too strong for Chip Kelly’s team, who was last seen starting slow against the league’s worst defense and losing to that Falcons team. Yes, the Cowboys are without Dez Bryant, but that changes little when Tony Romo is under center. We stick with the favorite, and we stick with our original pick.
The Rest (1 point each)
(20) Houston Texans (0-1) at (10) Carolina Panthers (1-0)
We saw the regression coming for Houston, and Week 1 seemed to confirm it. There’s no reason to sway with our preseason prediction, which had the Panthers earning the home victory and moving the Texans to 0-2 to start the season. We should note that we didn’t this early of a quarterback switch to Ryan Mallett, but we don’t expect much of a difference.
(7) Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at (28) Chicago Bears (0-1) **Upset of the Week**
Both teams held serve in Week 1 the way we saw it, so we’re not sweating our choice of upset. Arizona has to travel halfway across the country for this game, while the Bears play a second consecutive home game. Oh, and by the way, both Accuscore and the Predictalator gave the edge to the Bears at home. This isn’t as crazy as first would seem.
(25) Tennessee Titans (1-0) at (24) Cleveland Browns (0-1) **Amended Pick**
During Dick LeBeau’s last tenure as Defensive Coordinator with the Steelers, he went 18-3 against rookie quarterbacks. The winner included Andrew Walter (who had a sub-20 passer rating in the game), Troy Smith (who earned the win in Week 17) and Brandon Weeden. All those wins were by one possession. Johnny Manziel isn’t a rookie, but he is making only his third start under center, thanks to Josh McCown’s concussion. Second-year quarterbacks with three or fewer previous starts were 1-4 against LeBeau’s Steelers during his tenure. We originally didn’t think Manziel was going to get this start, but it will be costly against LeBeau and Titans DC Ray Horton.
(18) Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at (23) New York Giants (0-1)
In Atlanta’s upset over Philadelphia, we actually saw little quell our criticisms of Atlanta’s defense, at least for the early stages of the 2015 season. We expect Eli Manning to have a bounce back game and help the Giants avoid an 0-2 start.
(13) San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at (19) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
As good as the 49ers looked on Monday night, we severely question if they can keep up the good vibes when playing from good. This team is playing on four days fewer rest with a cross-country battle against a great offense. Take Pittsburgh all day.
(21) St. Louis Rams (1-0) at (30) Washington Redskins (0-1)
This was originally our only pick for a road team to win of the 1pm games. The Rams will instead be one of two teams to do so.
(15) Miami Dolphins (1-0) at (31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
We originally had Miami starting 2-0 on the wave of playing the lowly Washington and Jacksonville on the road. After Blake Bortles’ awful performance in Week 1, we don’t think the Jaguars can sway our minds at all.
(12) Baltimore Ravens (0-1) at (29) Oakland Raiders (0-1)
The Raiders are the equivalent of the Jaguars here. Any hopes of amended our pick were immediately wiped out in Week 1.
(22) New York Jets (1-0) at (9) Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
We don’t see the Colts start 0-2 again after losing at home on Monday Night Football in Week 2 again. That bit of deja vu would be too much for us to handle, let alone the Colts themselves. They’ll get the MNF win this time.
These are our picks submitted to NFL Pickwatch.