NFL 2015 TABRankings: Week 1

Apologies for this being delayed. Our writer Adam Dobrowolski recovering from a mild concussion, so things are a bit backed up. Normally, we will have the TABRankings weekly featured available on Wednesdays. Meanwhile, a Thursday feature will be used to examine some facet of regression as it relates to previewing the upcoming Thursday Night Football game. We’ll get into that routine starting next week. As for now, we will build off last year’s rankings and connect it to the Week 1 ouctoming.

For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition. Here’s our formula:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

NOTE: The quality win percentage and relative points average will both be excluded in Weeks 1 and 2.

The formula is based on three statistical categories (record stats, basic stats, advanced stats) with four totals in each category. Let’s remind everyone what’s going on by giving a breakdown of the stats that make up the rankings formula:

• Overall Win Percentage: This should be quite simple to understand. This looks at percentage of wins out of games played.
• Pythagorean Win Percentage: In a concept originally introduced by Pro Football Reference, the Pythagorean winning percentage focuses on an expected W-L record based on points scored and points against. While PFR uses 2.37 for the exponent, I have adjusted the total to 2.4 to compensate for the recent upturn in scoring in the NFL.
• Divisional Win Percentage: See the overall win percentage, only for the subset of divisional games.
• Quality Win Percentage: In this instance, the subset involves the team’s W-L percentage against teams with a .500 record or better. Cold, Hard Football Facts introduced their Quality Standings that only considered teams with a winning record. However, there are .500 teams that are strong teams and even successful playoff teams (see: 2011 Broncos, 2004 Vikings, etc.).
• Third/Fourth Down Differential: This measures percentage difference from offensive third- and fourth-down success and defensive third- and fourth-down success. (Example: Team X goes 39 of 95 on third down and 1 of 5 on fourth down, resulting in a 40-of-100 conversion rate. Their opponents collectively convert 28 of 90 third down attempts and 2 of 10 fourth down attempts, resulting in a 30-of-100 conversion rate. This means the calculation becomes 40 percent minus 30 percent.)
• Turnover Margin: This is very simple as well. Just subtract giveaways from takeaways for the margin.
• Fumbles Kept Differential: To compensate a bit for luck, I’ve added a few points to take away from the teams that recovered more fumbles than their opponents. Simply subtract opponents’ fumbles kept from the team’s fumbles kept. (Example: Team Y recovers 4 of their 12 fumbles. Their opponents recover 8 of 12 their fumbles. This results in a negative-4 differential.)
• Sack Differential: This is quite self-explanatory. Simply subtract the times sacked (offense) from the total sacks (defense).
• Time Ahead Average: This involves the total time each team held a lead, divided by the total games played. (Example: Team Z led for 90 minutes through three games, thus having a 30-minute time ahead average.)
• Time Ahead Big Average: This involved the total time each team held a lead by more than two possessions (15 points or more), divided by the total games played. (Example: Team Z led by 15 points or more for 15 minutes through three games, thus having a five-minute time ahead average.) This reflects bonus points for “leading big” in a game.
• Real Quarterback Rating Differential: This stat originates from Cold, Hard Football Facts. Rushing stats, sacks and fumbles by the quarterbacks are combined with the passing stats to complete the passer rating formula. Given the slightly improved correlation of victory over Passer Rating Differential and the improving athletic stature of the average quarterback, this stat replaces Passer Rating Differential from past publications of these rankings.
• Relative Points Average per Game: This might be a bit complicated. More or less, this total is meant to reflect a team’s point differential relative to their average opponent’s differential. First, subtract the opponents’ average points allowed from the team’s average points scored. Second, subtract the opponents’ average points scored from the team’s average points allowed. Finally, add those two totals together to get the Relative Points Average per Game. This idea originated from CHFF’s Relativity Index.

Moving on, we must note that one game doesn’t mean everything, as the sample size is just too small. Therefore, these rankings will feature some TABR from 2014 and some TABR from 2015. The 2015 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Additionally, there will be the 2014 TABR. THe two parts combine to create the True TABR for Week 1. Throughout the next few weeks, the 2014 TABR will have a decreasing influence. That means next week’s rankings will look at 2014 less, and so on. By Week 4, last year’s numbers will play no role in the TABRankings. We’ll have a nice sample size by then.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 1:
(Raw TABR * 0.25) + (2014 TABR * 0.75) = True TABR

With now all that put together, the results for Week 1 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 1

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BONUS: NOW, ON TO THE THURSDAY NIGHT MATCH-UP…
Boy, this could be a huge spot for the Kansas City Chiefs. In an early home game against their top AFC West foe in the Denver Broncos, a win here could set up this team up for a fantastic 2015 season. That’s at least how we saw it when we made our preseason predictions and chose the Chiefs to win in this spot. However, we see a few snags in our reel for tonight’s catch.

First, Peyton Manning is coming off two of the most disappointing performances in his career. After eight months of bad taste from Manning’s flat performance during a 24-13 Divisional Round loss to the Colts, he looked lost and overwhelming during last week’s 19-13 win over the Ravens. Excluding end-of-season games in which he left early to rest for the postseason, Manning hasn’t scored fewer than 24 points in three consecutive starts since Games 6-8 of the 2008 season. (Since then, he had two such streaks, but it involved resting after limited time in Week 17 of the 2008 season and then Weeks 16 and 17 of the 2009 season. We exclude those starts, as they don’t relate to the context at hand here.) We’re talking a 107-game span since then, with limited starts (re: rest) excluded.

Second, Alex Smith will face a defense that thoroughly shut down the Ravens last week. Denver posted the best Week 1 Defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Note that since Smith starting to successfully game manage his teams in 2011 to the end of last season, he owns a 8-5-1 record with an 87.37 passer rating as a starter against Top 8 teams in Defense DVOA. That’s producing slightly above a league average passer rating in that span against good to elite defenses. However, in those eight wins, his teams have allowed a combined 87 points (approximately 10.88 points allowed per game). Can Kansas City do the latter to the Broncos?

We would like to point that the Texans were ranked sixth in Defense DVOA last year, but they feasted of the weakest opposing offenses in the league (per the DVOA metric created by Football Outsiders). We expected regression for the Texans, and that’s why we correctly predicted a Kansas City win in Houston last week. The 27-20 wasn’t indicative of the ease in which the Chiefs won.

This isn’t Houston, though. This is Peyton Manning, a man who among the best ever at quarterback. He has four consecutive starts with a passer rating no better than 80.13, which is something hasn’t happened since his rookie season. Many are acting like this could be the end for Manning, but we think he’s too efficient of a player to keep going down like this. He is supposedly recovered from his thigh injury (which he played with in those final three starts of 2014), and he now just needs to get used to Gary Kubiak’s offense. We can’t imagine that it will take very long for the future Hall of Fame quarterback to figure out what works and what doesn’t.

Remember that Alex Smith is 3-33-1 as a starter (re: only a 9.46 win percentage) when his team allows 24+ points. That’s the magic mark we may be looking at for tonight. Your prediction should hedge on your belief whether or not Peyton Manning will continue to decline as a quarterback. If you think that Manning just needs to time learn Kubiak’s offense, or that he’s a shell of what he used to be, then stick with our original pick of the Chiefs. Heck, we’d even say take them despite the spread (-3), because it is so small. However, if you trust Manning to bounce back, take the Broncos to earn the win and keep the Chiefs in the passenger seat in the NFC West.

Given that TABMathletics is all about finding key notes of regression, we think Manning’s passer rating streak will come to an end. We also think his sub-24 point streak will end as well. We’re going to switch our pick to Broncos over Chiefs and take the over on Bovodo‘s 42.5-point line. However, don’t put any money on this game (even where it is legal to do so), because this is a very tough match-up.