Today feels a bit sluggish at the TABMathletics office. It’s not just became our writer Adam Dobrowolski literally may have concussed himself today, but he also figuratively took a pair of losses square on the chin last night to end a rather disappointing Week 1 to start the 2015 Pick’em competition. As you’ll see below, our record wasn’t terrible. However, it’s a step back from last year and it’s a flat start to our title defense and hopes for a three-peat. Of course, it’s only one week, so we have plenty of time to steer the ship forward.
Let’s show our results from Week 1, and then get to the Pick’em competition for the 2015 NFL season.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(12) Pittsburgh Steelers at (1) New England Patriots
(5) Indianapolis Colts at (9) Buffalo Bills
(7) Baltimore Ravens at (4) Denver Broncos
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(2) Green Bay Packers at (26) Chicago Bears
(3) Seattle Seahawks at (23) St. Louis Rams
(20) New York Giants at (6) Dallas Cowboys
The Rest (1 point each)
(16) Kansas City Chiefs at (15) Houston Texans
(22) Cleveland Browns at (27) New York Jets **Lock of the Week**
(17) Miami Dolphins at (29) Washington Redskins
(14) Carolina Panthers at (30) Jacksonville Jaguars
(24) New Orleans Saints at (10) Arizona Cardinals
(8) Detroit Lions at (19) San Diego Chargers
(32) Tennessee Titans at (31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(11) Cincinnati Bengals at (28) Oakland Raiders **Upset of the Week**
(13) Philadelphia Eagles at (21) Atlanta Falcons
(25) Minnesota Vikings at (18) San Francisco 49ers
We finish this week two games worse than what we did in Week 1 in each of the previous two seasons. And that came in generally tougher weeks, as the experts couldn’t top our record. In fact, in both 2013 and 2014, we finished Week 1 with a tie for the best record while sitting just two points away from the lead. That’s not the case in 2015.
Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 10-6 and 16 points (out of 25 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 10-6 and 16 points (62.5 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-1 this week (2-1 overall… 66.67 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 2-1 this week (2-1 overall… 66.67 win percentage) [includes 0-0 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 0-1 overall (0 ranking points… 0 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 1-0 overall (current streak: Jets… best streak: one week)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 13-3 | 1 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 21 | |
| 2 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 12-4 | 2 | J. Bell | 20 | |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | 12-4 | 2 | FiveThirtyEight | 20 | |
| 2 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 12-4 | 2 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 20 | |
| 2 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 12-4 | 5 | Don Banks, SI | 19 | |
| 2 | R. Jaworski | 12-4 | 5 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 19 | |
| 2 | M. Schlereth | 12-4 | 5 | M. Faulk | 19 | |
| 8 | D. Banks | 11-5 | 5 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 19 | |
| 8 | Football Outsiders | 11-5 | 9 | M. Golic | 18 | |
| 8 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 11-5 | 9 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 18 | |
| 8 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 11-5 | M | Mean Points | 17.08 | |
| M | Mean Record | 10.48-5.52 | 11 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 17 | |
| 12 | A. Caplan | 10-6 | 11 | FB Outsiders | 17 | |
| 12 | M. Ditka | 10-6 | 11 | V. Iyer | 17 | |
| 12 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 10-6 | 11 | T. Jackson | 17 | |
| 12 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 10-6 | 11 | K. Warner | 17 | |
| 12 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 10-6 | 16 | Nate Davis, USAT | 16 | |
| 12 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 10-6 | 16 | A. Dobrowolski | 16 | |
| 12 | C. Mortensen | 10-6 | 16 | M. Irvin | 16 | |
| 12 | S. Wickersham | 10-6 | 19 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 15 | |
| 20 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 9-7 | 19 | M. Hoge | 15 | |
| 20 | C. Carter | 9-7 | 19 | K. Joyner | 15 | |
| 20 | N. Davis | 9-7 | 19 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 15 | |
| 20 | K. Johnson | 9-7 | 19 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 15 | |
| 20 | S. Mariucci | 9-7 | 24 | E. Allen | 13 | |
| 25 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 8-8 | 24 | P. Prisco | 13 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Well, there you have it. Our first week was a below-average performance, relative to the rest of the Pick’em competition. After beating all experts two years in a row, according to our comparisons to the NFL Pickwatch prediction logs, Dobrowolski ranks in a tie for 57th out of the 126 experts who predicted all 16 games in Week 1. Talk about an underwhelming start…
Leading up to Week 2, we’ll have to determine which of our preseason picks will stick. Generally speaking, we don’t like make many changes. Peeking at those predictions, we would have a lot of home teams winning the early afternoon and primetime games, while the road teams are expected to prevail in the late afternoon games. Do we keep that trend in tact? Find out this Saturday evening.