NFL Postseason: Does their Epic Comeback Give the Seahawks Super Bowl Momentum?

For three quarters, the Seattle Seahawks offense put together one of the worst postseason performances in recent NFL history. At that point, it was honestly the largest disappointment in what was a game not fit for a conference championship. The game in itself was a sloppy game all around. Seattle committed penalties on both sides of the ball. Green Bay failed to cash in on sterling field position. Both teams committed an uncharacteristic amount of turnover. Yet, after the Packers ended the opening drive of the fourth quarter with a field goal, the Seahawks only trailed by a 19-7 score. Thus the door remain opened for an epic comeback.

Even the fourth quarter started with sloppy play. Seattle’s first drive of the quarter halted at midfield. The second drive ended on the first play, when Russell Wilson threw his fourth interception of the game on his fourth pass attempt instead for Jermaine Kearse. So how exactly did the Seahawks manage to pull out the 28-22 overtime victory?

Led by Wilson, the Seahawks pulled out three consecutive masterful drives. Wilson completed six of seven passes on the drive for 134 yards and a touchdown (putting up a perfect 158.33 passer rating). He also ran four times for 19 yards and a touchdown. Marshawn Lynch added six carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. Kearse, who was the intended receiver for the only incompletion down the stretch, caught the game-winning and NFC-clinching 35-yard touchdown pass from Wilson. All this happened in just over seven minutes of game time, and the Seahawks had a 0.1 percent chance of winning when getting the ball with 3:52 left.

Luke Willson (82) and Jermaine Kearse (15) celebrate a two-point conversion that played a huge role in Seattle’s improbably comeback victory. (photo rights to Tom Pennington / Getty Images)

We don’t have to go out on much of a limb to claim this is the most improbable comeback in a championship game in NFL history. No previous conference or league championship game saw a 12-point deficit overcome in the fourth quarter, let alone with less than four minutes remaining. By all means, Seattle escaped by the skin of its teeth, so the Seahawks have a “second life” as they head to the Super Bowl. The fortitude Seattle showed to survive and advance will definitely be a talking point heading into Super Bowl XLIX.

So exactly does this comeback mean heading into Super Bowl XLIX? Looking at it from one perspective, the Seahawks will likely head into Glendale with a fearless attitude knowing that it won a conference championship game despite playing its worst possible three quarters of football. Looking at it from another perspective, a team that needs a true miracle to reach the Super Bowl doesn’t normally fit the description of a champion. One side of the coin says this game is a momentum builder, while the other says it’s a momentum killer.

That leads us to today’s feature, which studies the precedent set by past winners of “epic” conference championship games. For the purpose of this study, the winner of an “epic” conference championship game must make a fourth-quarter comeback and/or game-winning drive or defeat a “individual best record” team. Note that the latter criterion only pertain to teams that don’t share the league’s best record, so certain seasons don’t apply. This designed to only consider the most climactic wins.

We show below the winners of each “epic” conference championship game. The table shows how each team won, as well as how each team fared in the Super Bowl. By our count, Seattle became the 24th team to win an “epic” conference championship game.

Table 1: “Epic” Conference Championship Games

NOTE: The NFL held its first conference championship games in 1970, after the NFL-AFL merger officially took place.

After examining this table, it seems like there is no clear trend of momentum established by winning an “epic” conference championship games. Overall, the conference winners in this table own a 13-10 record, with no true progressive stretch of winning or losing. As we also expect for tomorrow’s post-AFC Championship Game feature, these results were influenced by the NFC’s 13-game winning streak in the Super Bowl from XIX to XXXI. That stretch included the conference championship games from 1986 to 1995. However, that winning had little impact on the winning-losing trends of the conference championships’ “epic” winners.

During the 13-game Super Bowl winning streak, there were four AFC winners and four NFC winners who prevailed in an “epic” conference championship game. That means these teams owned a 9-6 record otherwise, which still doesn’t prove any trend. Also, there were four instances of both conference championships ended in epic fashion in one season, so the record excluding the context is also 9-6. There’s no rhyme or reason for these Super Bowl outcomes, at least as is relates to momentum.

Bottom line, the Seahawks can head into Super Bowl XLIX knowing that they survived playing three of the worst quarters of their NFL lives, so there won’t be reason to panic if they trail in the ball game. However, there isn’t much more that was gained from this comeback, other than the opportunity to defend their Super Bowl crown. There will be no momentum factor for the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX.