For a good while, it seemed like we were going to have all four home teams win in the Divisional Round for the first time since 2004. However, the Indianapolis Colts pulled off the upset during the final game of the weekend, giving us the lone upset in this round. It’s not like we didn’t have close calls, as both New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers needed fourth-quarter comebacks to earn their respective home victories. All in all, we saw some solid and well-played games, including two that we may remember for a long time.
As for the Four Postseason Factors, we knew at least three of games would be close, so we’re not surprised we lost one of them. However, with the rest of games holding serve, we continue to be the Pick’em top dog.
Divisional Round (6 points each)
(7) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 +1-0) at (1) New England Patriots (12-4 + 0-0)
(13) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1 + 1-0) at (4) Seattle Seahawks (12-4 + 0-0)
(6) Dallas Cowboys (12-4 + 1-0) at (3) Green Bay Packers (12-4 + 0-0)
(5) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 + 1-0) at (2) Denver Broncos (12-4 + 0-0)
Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 3-1 and 18 points
- Overall record and points: 193-70-1 and 367.5 points (73.30 win percentage)
- Postseason: 6-2 and 36 points (75 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 42-14 regular season… 75 win percentage
- Divisional Games: 72-24 regular season… 75 win percentage [includes 12-5 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 9-7 overall (176 ranking points… 56.25 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 15-1 overall (best streak: 10 weeks)
Now for the competition, which just became a battle of TABM v. 21 experts. Experts from a few different publications will compete. We use Football Outsiders as one of our top competitors. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN with online predictions and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TABMathletics | 193.5-70.5 | 1 | TABM | 367.5 | |
| 2 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 185.5-78.5 | 2 | Carter | 349.5 | |
| 3 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 181.5-82.5 | 3 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 338.5 | |
| 3 | Joyner | 181.5-82.5 | 4 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 333.5 | |
| 5 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 180.5-83.5 | 5 | Don Banks, SI | 331.5 | |
| 6 | Irvin | 179.5-84.5 | 5 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 331.5 | |
| 7 | Prisco | 178.5-85.5 | 7 | Jackson | 330.5 | |
| 8 | Banks | 176.5-87.5 | 7 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 330.5 | |
| 8 | Mariucci | 176.5-87.5 | 9 | Jaworski | 328.5 | |
| 8 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 176.5-87.5 | 10 | Wickersham | 326.5 | |
| 11 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 174.5-89.5 | 11 | Faulk | 325.5 | |
| M | Mean Record | 173.32-90.68 | 12 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 322.5 | |
| 12 | Schefter | 171.5-92.5 | M | Mean Points | 322.18 | |
| 13 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 170.5-93.5 | 13 | Football Outsiders | 317.5 | |
| 13 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 170.5-93.5 | 14 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 315.5 | |
| 15 | Schlereth | 169.5-94.5 | 15 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 313.5 | |
| 16 | FO | 168.5-95.5 | 16 | Warner | 312.5 | |
| 17 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 166.5-97.5 | 17 | Johnson | 308.5 | |
| 18 | Hoge | 165.5-98.5 | 18 | Allen | 306.5 | |
| 19 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 163.5-100.5 | 19 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 305.5 | |
| 20 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 161.5-102.5 | 20 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 300.5 | |
| 21 | Ditka | 160.5-103.5 | 21 | Golic | 296.5 | |
| 21 | Sapp | 160.5-103.5 | 22 | Mortensen | 295.5 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 22 competitors).
Many experts chose one upset to happen, but only Merril Hoge correctly predicted that upset victory to happen for the Colts. He goes 4-0, while the rest go 3-1 or 2-2 for the week. Overall, Cris Carter leads the rest of the experts (among 135) but trail TABMathletics by eight games, according to the awesome people at NFL Pickwatch. With the three games and 30 points left on the board, I will clinch another Pick’em championship in both record and points as long as I predict the same outcome as Cris Carter for at least two games. With the Patriots and Seahawks both hosting rematches in which they won by 20+ points, it seems like we could get that title clinched next week.
Until then…