The NFL postseason began with Wild Card Weekend, and our Four Postseason Factors fared quite well. The weekend began with a loss in a poorly-played game in Carolina. We felt the Cardinals was our weakest choice, and it showed in their loss, as they set an NFL record for fewest yards in a playoff game. After that, the weekend panned out just as expected. We predicted the correct margin of victory for the Ravens. We also correctly predicted the winning point total for the Cowboys.
In all, it seems like the Four Postseason Factors could work out quite well for this postseason. Now, let’s check out the results for this week, with each victory counting for six points apiece.
Wild Card Weekend (6 points each)
(7) Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at (19) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
(11) Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at (12) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
(10) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at (5) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
(9) Detroit Lions (11-5) at (8) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 3-1 and 18 points
- Overall record and points: 190-69-1 and 349.5 points (73.27 win percentage)
- Postseason: 3-1 and 18 points (75 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 42-14 regular season… 75 win percentage
- Divisional Games: 72-24 regular season… 75 win percentage [includes 12-5 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 9-7 overall (176 ranking points… 56.25 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 15-1 overall (best streak: 10 weeks)
Now for the competition, which just became a battle of TABM v. 21 experts. Experts from a few different publications will compete. We use Football Outsiders as one of our top competitors. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN with online predictions and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TABMathletics | 190.5-69.5 | 1 | TABM | 349.5 | |
| 2 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 182.5-77.5 | 2 | Carter | 331.5 | |
| 3 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 179.5-80.5 | 3 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 326.5 | |
| 3 | Joyner | 179.5-80.5 | 4 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 321.5 | |
| 5 | Irvin | 177.5-82.5 | 5 | Jackson | 318.5 | |
| 5 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 177.5-82.5 | 5 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 318.5 | |
| 7 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 175.5-84.5 | 7 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 314.5 | |
| 8 | Mariucci | 174.5-85.5 | 8 | Don Banks, SI | 313.5 | |
| 8 | Wickersham | 174.5-85.5 | 8 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 313.5 | |
| 10 | Banks | 173.5-86.5 | 8 | Prisco | 313.5 | |
| 11 | Faulk | 172.5-87.5 | 11 | Jaworski | 310.5 | |
| M | Mean Record | 170.82-89.18 | 11 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 310.5 | |
| 12 | Schefter | 169.5-90.5 | M | Mean Points | 307.05 | |
| 13 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 168.5-91.5 | 13 | Football Outsiders | 299.5 | |
| 14 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 167.5-92.5 | 14 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 297.5 | |
| 15 | Schlereth | 166.5-93.5 | 15 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 296.5 | |
| 16 | FO | 165.5-94.5 | 16 | Allen | 294.5 | |
| 17 | Johnson | 164.5-95.5 | 16 | Warner | 294.5 | |
| 18 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 161.5-98.5 | 18 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 289.5 | |
| 18 | Hoge | 161.5-98.5 | 19 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 288.5 | |
| 20 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 159.5-100.5 | 20 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 287.5 | |
| 21 | Sapp | 158.5-101.5 | 21 | Golic | 284.5 | |
| 22 | Ditka | 157.5-102.5 | 22 | Mortensen | 283.5 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 22 competitors).
Overall, Cris Carter leads the rest of the experts (among 135) but trail TABMathletics by eight games, according to the awesome people at NFL Pickwatch. Stay tuned to TABMathletics as we continue to use our Four Postseason Factors analysis to make postseason predictions. Next week will be the Divisional Round, which features four strong favorites at home.
Until then…