We’re looking at trying to get back to our dominant ways from Weeks 1-5, but honestly, holding serve wouldn’t be a bad thing. There is only a 13-game slate for this week, so we need to make sure to avoid getting sloppy with games. Every one will count.
Note that Adam Dobrowolski is on the road today for a broadcasting doubleheader, so a few of these games will be decided on Sunday morning. Please make sure to stay tuned! We promise this will decided early Sunday morning.
Update (11/2, 9:15 am EST): The Cowboys made their decision in regards to Tony Romo, so our picks are now final.
Remember, using the TABRankings as a basis for determining the quality of each game, the week’s games are divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Now to the predictions for Week 9.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(3) Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at (13) Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
It looks like Tony Romo will not play in this crucial game, which definitely hurts the Cowboys. The timing is just awful for Dallas, because Brandon Weeden is an unknown in this offense. He has a poor Arizona pass defense to exploit, but he didn’t play well at all in Cleveland. As much as we’d love to give him the benefit of the doubt, we’re going with a proven Arizona team instead. The Cardinals should have success offensively, with Andre Ellington having the best chance for a breakout game.
(1) Denver Broncos (6-1) at (4) New England Patriots (6-2)
The Patriots have done a wonderful job of completely overcoming that surprisingly mediocre September. They dominated the October games, and Tom Brady finally looked like the guy we expected to bounce back from a disappointing 2013. However, New England faces a Denver team that is just playing at another level. The Broncos haven’t only won; they’ve dominated. They haven’t only dominated; they’ve dominated a tough slate of opponents. Denver owns a 5-1 record against teams with a winning record, and they last three such victories came by multiple possessions. Denver can throw and run. The Broncos can defend the run and rush the passer. The Patriots are proving once again to be a legitimate playoff contender, but they aren’t up to beating their rivals under normal circumstances.
(7) Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at (15) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
The NFL didn’t do either team a scheduling favor in this rivalry. Both games for the Ravens against the Steelers come after games against the Bengals. Meanwhile, due to a Cincinnati sweep, the Steelers end up facing the Ravens both times after a frustrating loss. Baltimore dominated the first game in prime time, which is a rarity in this rivalry. Pittsburgh hadn’t looked dominant until last week’s victory, so maybe now is the best time for the Steelers to beat the Ravens. However, Baltimore scores with much more efficiency (7.24 net yards per point) than Pittsburgh (-1.71 net yards per point). When these two drag it out, it looks like the Ravens could be getting touchdowns and Steelers could be getting field goals in the scoring exchange. That will make it favorable for a Baltimore sweep.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(22) New Orleans Saints (3-4) at (21) Carolina Panthers (3-4-1)
We correctly picked this Thursday Night Football outcome, although we expected this game to have a smaller margin of victory.
(28) St. Louis Rams (2-5) at (9) San Francisco 49ers (4-3)
St. Louis started off strong against the 49ers, but gave away the momentum in the game by allowing San Francisco to sandwich halftime with a pair of touchdowns. It should lend a favor to the 49ers that the game is in Santa Clara, although the home-field advantage isn’t firmly established. Moreover, Colin Kaepernick owns a 100+ passer rating against the Rams. He’ll continue to exercise that dominance, as the Rams horrid pass defense doesn’t match up well to the big-play dual threat.
The Rest (1 point each)
(32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at (20) Cleveland Browns (4-3)
Going through the weakest stretch of the season, the Browns were upset in Jacksonville and bounced back with a win at home against Oakland. In the process, the pass defense is starting to surpass to the pass offense when it comes to efficiency. In fact, the Browns rank 4th in Defensive Passer Rating, as opposed to the 19th ranking in Offensive Passer Rating. That makes the match-up even tougher for a Tampa Bay team that struggling immensely on pass defense and not doing much better in the pass offense.
(14) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at (18) Houston Texans (4-4)
The Texans enjoy the better passing efficiency on both sides of the football, but the Eagles are more dangerous due to their big-play ability. This dynamic makes this game extremely tough to predict. Philadelphia is definitely a team better than its 26th-ranked Passer Rating Differential (-13.24), but that number shows how the Eagles won’t fully take advantage of the match-up. Just remember that Nick Foles struggles when holding on to the football too long. Hello, J.J. Watt (and possibly even Jadeveon Clowney).
(30) New York Jets (1-7) at (5) Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
The Jets have officially become a match-up nightmare. They’ve generally found ways to win under Rex Ryan despite inefficiency in the pass offense. It’s had much to do with a strong defense. However, the pass defense this year is just horrible, allowing 22 passing touchdowns and totaling only one interception. There’s no way we can pick the Jets as this point, especially when they are playing on the road against the red-hot Chiefs. Kansas City is suddenly playing efficiently like a serious playoff contender.
(29) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at (6) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1)
Are the Bengals once again one of the league’s best, or did the win against the Ravens merely delay this team’s eventual fall? We probably won’t have an answer to this question tomorrow. Blake Bortles plays against the league’s best team in Defensive Passer Rating, and it’s in a place where the Bengals haven’t lost a regular season game since 2012.
(10) San Diego Chargers (5-3) at (17) Miami Dolphins (4-3)
Not too long ago, the Chargers were putting up an argument as one of the league’s best teams. Now, after a pair of losses in a row, they need a win in Miami to stay ahead of the eight ball in the AFC Wild Card picture. This match-up will be a great one too, with Philip Rivers leading an elite San Diego pass offense and going up against one of the league’s best pass defenses. The two difference-making factors will involve the opposite passing battle (Miami O v. San Diego D) and the road play of the Chargers across the country. While Ryan Tannehill is playing better as of late, it’s come against weak teams, so we like the San Diego defense. Meanwhile, San Diego owns a 7-2 record in its last nine games on the road with a 1pm EST start time. It will be a close Chargers win to end their losing streak.
(25) Washington Redskins (3-5) at (27) Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
Colt McCoy played much better in his game and a half than expected, including leading an upset victory in Dallas on Monday Night Football. However, the Redskins get Robert Griffin III back from injury, which oddly could kill the team’s momentum. It will be a good move in the long run, as Griffin needs time on the field to learn Jay Gruden’s offense. However. the Vikings pass rush is playing well and should spearhead a defensive attack that will some big plays against Griffin. We also think Teddy Bridgewater and Jerick McKinnon will do just enough on offense to get the Vikings to victory. However, this one will be a very close battle that could go to the end.
(31) Oakland Raiders (0-7) at (16) Seattle Seahawks (4-3) **Lock of the Week**
The Seahawks are dominant team at home, and they still motivated to fix what’s been ailing them recently. Facing the lowly Raiders provide no better of a match-up. We can’t believe Seattle is still available for the lock either, but this is a perfect time to get with the ‘Hawks if the pass defense really isn’t going to get better. Here’s a chance to finally have a defensive field day.
(2) Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at (19) New York Giants (3-4) **Upset of the Week**
We must go with some upset, and this one quite frankly best fits the bill. The Giants are coming off a bye, and they immediately face a great team as they enter the must-win mode. The Colts would love to bounce back from its loss, with the something Andrew Luck does particularly well. However, he has lost consecutive games before, and it last came with an 0-2 start. The second loss came on Monday Night Football against an NFC East team. So again, it at least fits the bill. The football part of this reasoning is that the Giants actually have a better Passer Rating Differential (+14.50) than the Colts (+6.51). They just need Eli Manning to get rid of the ball quickly.